Minsheng Securities: Focus on brand opportunities under segmented trends and grasp the performance elasticity of textile and apparel manufacturing enterprises

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that since 2025, terminal consumption of apparel sales has been steadily increasing, while textile manufacturing exports have shown a differentiated performance. In the first three months of 2025, the apparel exports of Bangladesh and Vietnam significantly outperformed China's textile and apparel exports. The main lines of focus for branded apparel are: Main Line One: Sports apparel shows resilience, with high prosperity in the outdoor sub-segment, focusing on certainty; Main Line Two: Demand for cost-effectiveness + weak offline foot traffic drives the rapid rise of discount retail formats; Main Line Three: Under the stimulus of parenting subsidies and national subsidies, focus on beneficiaries. In terms of textile manufacturing, under weak beta, grasp performance elastic targets and stable leading enterprises.

The main viewpoints of Minsheng Securities are as follows:

Sector Review: Stability at the Brand Level, Differentiation at the Manufacturing Level

Since 2025, terminal consumption of apparel sales has been steadily increasing, while textile manufacturing exports have shown a differentiated performance. In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods maintained steady growth, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.1%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.8 percentage points from March; the sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles above designated size increased by 2.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.4 percentage points. The low base in H2 2024 is expected to boost the growth performance of clothing and footwear consumption in H2 2025. The apparel exports of Bangladesh and Vietnam have performed stronger than domestic apparel exports. In April 2025, China's textile and apparel exports decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, underperforming compared to Bangladesh and Vietnam's apparel exports, with Vietnam's textile and apparel export growth reaching 18.15% year-on-year. In the first three months of 2025, the apparel exports of these two countries also significantly outperformed China's textile and apparel exports.

Branded Apparel: Grasping Trends and Certainty Under Domestic Circulation

Main Line One: Sports apparel shows resilience, with high prosperity in the outdoor sub-segment, focusing on certainty. It is recommended to pay attention to Anta Sports, which has strong resilience in main brands; the undervalued high dividend, Nike, which is a high-elasticity target; and Xtep International, which benefits from the industry's upward trend and the profitability improvement of high-end brands. Main Line Two: Demand for cost-effectiveness + weak offline foot traffic drives the rapid rise of discount retail formats. It is recommended to focus on HLA GROUP, which has broad growth potential brought by JD Outlet. Main Line Three: Under the stimulus of parenting subsidies and national subsidies, focus on beneficiaries. It is recommended to pay attention to Luolai Life, which benefits from consumption stimulation + profit elasticity + high dividends; Mercury Home Textiles, which drives large product sales through new consumption; and Stable Medical, which is driven by both consumption and the medical sector.

Textile Manufacturing: Under Weak Beta, Grasp Performance Elastic Targets and Stable Leading Enterprises

From the demand side, overseas brand inventories have returned to healthy levels, while the revenue guidance for sports brands has weakened month-on-month. From the inventory perspective, retailers have shown an end to restocking, while wholesalers have basically ended destocking, both returning to reasonable healthy levels, with weak restocking demand from various brands; on the retail side, brands maintain a cautious attitude towards terminal consumption, and overall demand is expected to weaken compared to last year. However, due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies, textile manufacturing enterprises have not yet directly reflected the weak demand from the brand side. Tariffs have a significant impact on the textile manufacturing sector; although the current tariff pressure has eased, continuous attention to subsequent developments is still needed. In terms of targets, focus on two aspects: 1) Pay attention to opportunities for performance elastic targets, recommending Jingyuan International and ZHEJIANG NATURAL OUTDOOR GOODS; 2) Optimistic about the long-term improvement in market concentration in the textile manufacturing industry, continuously recommending leading textile manufacturing enterprises, suggesting attention to Huali Group, Shenzhou International, and Weixing