NTN Corporation Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Explore NTN's Fair Values from the Community and select yours

Shareholders of NTN Corporation (TSE:6472) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 20% to JP¥308 following its latest first-quarter results. Revenues of JP¥199b reported a marginal miss, falling short of forecasts by 2.3%, but earnings were better than expected - statutory profits came in at JP¥2.25 per share, a nice change from the loss the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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After the latest results, the consensus from NTN's five analysts is for revenues of JP¥789.5b in 2026, which would reflect a discernible 3.0% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 80% to JP¥8.73. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of JP¥807.3b and JP¥1.96 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates dropped there was also a very substantial increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

View our latest analysis for NTN

The average price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥246, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values NTN at JP¥300 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥220. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 4.0% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 9.4% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.6% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - NTN is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at NTN. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for NTN going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for NTN (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you need to be mindful of.