Shenwan Hongyuan: Strengthening Overload Management Promotes Optimization of Transportation Structure, Compliant Transport Capacity Expected to Benefit

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Shenwan Hongyuan has released a research report stating that the super-overload policy and the "anti-involution" of manufacturers are expected to benefit compliant capacity in road transportation for complete vehicle logistics, while further promoting the transformation of the logistics transportation structure towards "road to rail," "road to water," and multimodal transport. It recommends Changjiu Logistics, which has sufficient compliant capacity and is expected to gradually release profits, and pays attention to China Railway Special Cargo (001213.SZ), San Yang Ma (001317.SZ), and Bondex (603836.SH).

Shenwan Hongyuan's main viewpoints are as follows:

Event

On July 24, 2025, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Public Security, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly formulated the "Special Governance Action Plan for Vehicle Transport Vehicles," with key tasks including: 1) strict management of market access for new vehicles; 2) strengthening supervision of source loading; 3) enhancing road enforcement inspections; 4) increasing penalties at the source. This action will last for six months and will be implemented in four phases, with a focus on rectification from September to November, targeting the chaos of overloaded vehicle transport.

Under the background of "anti-involution," the road transportation industry is shifting from price competition to high-quality development, and the super-overload policy is accelerating industry clearing, with compliant enterprises gaining larger market shares and pricing power.

The firm believes that the enforcement of the super-overload policy this time is significantly stronger compared to the 2016-2018 period, with stricter penalties for non-compliant enterprises: for vehicle transport vehicles that violate overload regulations more than three times within a year, their road transport licenses will be revoked; for drivers who violate overload regulations more than three times within a year, they will be ordered to cease operations; for logistics companies with non-compliant vehicles exceeding 10% of the total, they will be ordered to suspend operations for rectification. At the same time, clear requirements are proposed for compliant vehicle transport: 1) flat-headed articulated vehicles carrying 6 or fewer vehicles; if carrying more than 7 vehicles, strictly enforce the loading length not exceeding 17.1 meters, width not exceeding 2.55 meters, and height not exceeding 4 meters; 2) long-headed articulated vehicles carrying 7 or fewer vehicles; if carrying 8 or more vehicles, strictly enforce the loading length not exceeding 18.1 meters, width not exceeding 2.55 meters, and height not exceeding 4 meters; 3) mid-axle vehicle transport vehicles carrying 8 or fewer vehicles; if carrying 9 or more vehicles, strictly enforce the loading length not exceeding 22 meters, width not exceeding 2.55 meters, and height not exceeding 4 meters.

Supply-side contraction will affect the industry landscape, accelerating the elimination of small and medium logistics enterprises, and the clearing of non-compliant vehicles is expected to boost compliant capacity and freight rates.

1. The period from September to December is the traditional peak season for automobile production and sales, making supply assurance the primary task for manufacturers, who are relatively more accepting of freight rate increases. Manufacturers usually increase production and shipping efforts during this period, resulting in a cumulative effect of the super-overload policy: expanded capacity gaps, increased timeliness requirements, and reduced cost sensitivity; 2) Taking the super-overload policy from 2016-2018 as an example, the policy significantly raised freight rates for Changjiu Logistics, with average freight rates for complete vehicle transport business increasing by 27% in 2018 compared to 2015; 3) The transmission path of freight rates is clear, but terminal perception is not obvious. Logistics costs typically account for less than 1% of the total vehicle cost structure, so even a 30% increase has limited impact on terminal prices. Additionally, there are regional price differences, promotional discounts, and configuration differences in vehicle prices, making minor price adjustments easily masked by market fluctuations
2. In the long term, the main engine manufacturers are expected to promote anti-involution. If vehicle prices increase along with strict road overload regulations, the transmission of freight rates will be smoother.

Overload regulations are expected to optimize the structure of automotive logistics transportation, improve logistics efficiency, and reduce social logistics costs.

Currently, the transportation structure of complete vehicles in China is primarily road-based, with water and rail as supplements. In 2024, the proportions of road shipments, rail shipments, and roll-on/roll-off transport for complete vehicles are expected to be 61.5%, 27.4%, and 11.1%, respectively. Under strict overload regulations, traditional road transportation costs are rising, pushing the industry towards a transformation from "road to water" and "road to rail." The volume of rail and waterway transportation is expected to increase, and multimodal transport will become a key solution for cost reduction and efficiency improvement, accelerating the optimization and upgrading of complete vehicle logistics models.

Risk Warning: Freight rate fluctuation risk; risk of automotive production and sales not meeting expectations; risk of intensified industry competition