Next week's key schedule: U.S. August non-farm payrolls, China holds the September 3rd military parade, Broadcom Nio earnings report

September 1 - September 7 Weekly Major Financial Events Overview, all in Beijing Time:

This week's key focus: U.S. August Non-Farm Payroll data, "September 3rd" military parade, S&P Global August China Manufacturing PMI.

In addition, the U.S. will release August ADP employment figures, ISM Manufacturing, and the final value of July durable goods orders month-on-month. The Federal Reserve will publish the Beige Book on economic conditions, a decentralized finance project supported by the Trump family will officially launch, and Nio, Broadcom, Salesforce, C3.ai, and Lululemon will announce their earnings reports.

Economic Indicators

• U.S. August Non-Farm Employment Change

On September 5, the U.S. will release the August Non-Farm Employment Change. Last month's U.S. non-farm "shock" saw an increase of only 73,000 jobs, far below expectations, with the data for the previous two months significantly revised down by 258,000.

Goldman Sachs traders believe that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has given the green light for a rate cut in September, but the August non-farm employment data will be a key factor in determining the magnitude and pace of the cut. If job growth is below 100,000, it will help confirm a rate cut in September. Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting, particularly his reiteration of "downside risks to the labor market," have paved the way for a rate cut. This statement echoes his concerns from the last FOMC press conference, reflecting the Federal Reserve's high attention to the job market.

Goldman Sachs' negative revision of future job growth is based on four reasons: the birth-death model may be overly optimistic; historical revisions of original employment data during economic slowdowns are often negative; ADP data raises questions about official healthcare sector job growth; and household surveys overestimate immigration and job growth. The firm is particularly concerned that "catch-up hiring" in a few industries has ended, with job growth outside these industries dropping to nearly zero. If balanced job growth is indeed around 80,000 as Goldman Sachs estimates, the current data is "concerning."

Goldman Sachs believes that the Federal Reserve will "cautiously observe" the labor market after a rate cut in September, looking for further signs of weakness to determine the subsequent path. There is a high likelihood that the rate cut cycle will be completed before the next Federal Reserve Chair takes office, as Powell's term will end in May next year. Goldman Sachs concludes that if weakness is to come, it will show up in the next few data releases; if not, the current weakness may just be a fleeting moment.

• U.S. August ADP Employment Change

Last month's data showed that the U.S. private sector added 104,000 jobs in July, exceeding economists' expectations but still far below last year's average level. Against the backdrop of increasing uncertainty regarding Trump's policies, employers are becoming cautious in their hiring decisions, and overall demand in the labor market remains weak

• China's August S&P Manufacturing PMI

On September 1, S&P Global released China's August Manufacturing PMI. Last month's data recorded 49.5, indicating a slight weakening in manufacturing sentiment, a decline in exports, and a slowdown in the growth of new orders. However, business confidence is expected to improve in early 2025, and average input prices recorded an increase for the first time since February. Due to an improved output outlook for the next year, corporate procurement activities also saw a slight increase.

• U.S. August ISM Manufacturing Index

On September 2, the U.S. released the August ISM Manufacturing Index. Last month, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index remained below the expansion threshold for five consecutive months, recording 48, which was below the expected 49.5. The new orders index shrank for the sixth consecutive month, but manufacturers experienced some relief in raw material cost pressures. The employment index further declined, falling into contraction. Respondents indicated that controlling employee numbers remains the norm for their companies, and businesses continue to be cautious in hiring.

• U.S. July Durable Goods Orders Month-on-Month Final Value

On September 3, the U.S. released the final value of July durable goods orders month-on-month. Last month's data showed that U.S. durable goods orders plummeted 9.3% month-on-month in June, marking the largest decline since April 2020. This sharp fluctuation was primarily due to a significant adjustment in non-defense aircraft orders, which surged 230% month-on-month in May but fell 50% in June, reflecting a cautious attitude towards capital expenditures amid uncertainties in trade and fiscal policies.

Financial Events

• Grand Military Parade at Tiananmen Square

On the morning of September 3, a grand ceremony was held at Tiananmen Square in Beijing to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's Anti-Japanese War and the World Anti-Fascist War, including a military review.

According to reports from CCTV News and Xinhua News Agency, relevant officials introduced that the parade activities were conducted in two steps: the parade and the column formation, lasting approximately 70 minutes. The weapons and equipment on display were selected from domestically produced active main battle equipment, with a significant proportion of new equipment making its debut. Some strategic heavy equipment from land, sea, and air bases, as well as hypersonic precision strikes, unmanned, and anti-unmanned equipment, were showcased for the first time.

A relevant official from the State Council Information Office stated that the number and types of equipment participating in the review reached hundreds. We organized a lean support force according to wartime requirements, and the joint support of equipment extended to the tactical level, efficiently supporting the implementation of high-intensity and fast-paced training.

The aerial formation was organized in a modular and systematic manner, consisting of advanced early warning command aircraft, fighter jets, bombers, transport aircraft, etc., covering the main battle aircraft types currently in service in our military. Many of these are star equipment that has attracted public attention, with some making their public debut, fully demonstrating the leapfrog development of our military's aerial combat capabilities.

Currently, preparations for the parade have been basically completed. All participating officers and soldiers will accept the review from the Party and the people with a high-spirited state of mind, together welcoming September 3, a victory day that the people of the world will forever commemorate.

• Decentralized finance project supported by the Trump family plans to officially launch its WLFI token for public trading on September 1 According to the World Liberty Financial platform, this decentralized finance project supported by the Trump family plans to officially launch the public trading of its WLFI token on September 1. The token generation event (TGE) will take place at 12 PM UTC on that day, and this Ethereum-based token will be distributed through a system called "Lockbox."

At that time, early investors who purchased the token at $0.015 and $0.05 will be able to unlock 20% of their total token holdings, which accounts for approximately 5% of the total supply. The remaining 80% will be subject to community governance, while the allocations for founders, advisors, and partners remain locked. The WLFI token is expected to be listed on major cryptocurrency exchanges such as Binance, Coinbase, and Hyperliquid.

This issuance has generated significant market response. According to Cryptonews, based on the estimated futures price of the token, the fully diluted valuation of WLFI has exceeded $40 billion, with the tokens held by Trump himself valued at over $6 billion. Current futures prices indicate that WLFI is trading in the range of $0.20-$0.30, well above its presale price, reflecting strong market interest and complex expectations for the project.

• Federal Reserve Releases Economic Conditions Beige Book

On September 4, the Federal Reserve released its Economic Conditions Beige Book. The Beige Book from last month indicated a slight increase in economic activity from late May to early July. The number of mentions of inflation hit a four-year low, with only 5 mentions compared to 10 in the previous report, while the term "slowdown" was mentioned at a record high since October of last year.

Goldman Sachs believes that the core risks currently facing the U.S. market and economy are no longer the financial excesses of the private sector, but rather the increasingly severe public sector debt issues and high asset valuations.

Financial Reports

• Broadcom

Broadcom sent a clear signal during a management meeting in July—demand for AI inference is not only rapidly increasing but is also still in the early stages of an upward trajectory. Future reassessments of market size and capacity allocation could lead to systematic profit upgrades.

During a recent investor meeting organized by JP Morgan, Broadcom's management revealed that the company is experiencing unexpectedly high demand growth in the AI inference sector, even "exceeding current capacity," and this trend has not yet been factored into previous market size forecasts, potentially providing room for future profit upgrades. Meanwhile, non-AI business is also beginning to recover, with VMware continuing to ramp up, and the company overall is "firing on multiple fronts."

Broadcom CEO Hock Tan and CFO Kirsten Spears stated that over the past year, AI demand has primarily come from training workloads, especially for "cutting-edge models." However, in the past two months, the company has seen a significant increase in orders for AI inference. Management pointed out that this wave of inference demand comes from customers wanting to monetize their AI investments more quickly, and "the market capacity for inference may be severely underestimated."

• Nio

Nio will announce its financial report on September 2. JP Morgan has upgraded the rating of Nio's American Depositary Receipts (ADR) from "Neutral" to "Overweight." Analysts at the firm, including Nick Lai, stated in a report:

"The financial report itself may not bring too many surprises, but we expect general earnings expectations to be revised upward, especially as the company's losses are expected to narrow quickly."

Additionally, JP Morgan has raised the target price for Nio's ADR from $4.80 to $8.00.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

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