CICC: Solid-state battery process innovation drives value reassessment, equipment required for new processes such as dry electrodes may be the core increment

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) released a research report stating that as all-solid-state batteries steadily advance towards industrialization, the equipment sector, as the first link in the industrial chain to realize this, is in a critical window period of "from verification to volume production." Automakers may begin small-scale installation of all-solid-state batteries in 2027, with the incremental market space for all-solid-state battery equipment estimated to reach 2.5 billion yuan in 2027, and expected to grow at a CAGR of 122% to reach 27.3 billion yuan by 2030. Additionally, the value proportion of front and mid-stage equipment is expected to rise to 75%-80%, with new processes such as dry electrodes and isostatic pressing being the core increments, possessing clear replacement and revaluation logic.

CICC's main viewpoints are as follows:

Demand for new energy vehicles catalyzes accelerated industrialization process

New energy vehicle companies are accelerating their layout of all-solid-state battery routes, with most leading automakers expecting to achieve vehicle installation of all-solid-state batteries by 2026 and enter small-scale production in 2027. Companies such as CATL, BYD, Qingtao Energy, and LGES have all initiated the construction of pilot lines, gradually moving towards mass production at the hundred-megawatt to gigawatt level.

Core equipment upgrades, front and mid-stage value increase

All-solid-state batteries eliminate the liquid injection packaging process and introduce key new processes such as dry electrodes, glue frame printing, isostatic pressing, and high-pressure formation. We estimate that the value of the entire battery production line will increase from the traditional lithium battery's 100-200 million yuan to 200-300 million yuan, with the front, mid, and back-stage value proportions being approximately 35%/40%/25%, respectively.

Increased technical barriers, leading equipment manufacturers have first-mover advantages

The front-end dry process negative electrodes and back-end high-pressure formation and capacity gradually ramp up, while the dry process positive electrodes face challenges due to the high hardness and brittleness of high-nickel positive materials, and the isostatic pressing equipment in the mid-stage still needs breakthroughs due to high qualification barriers.

Profit forecasts and valuations

CICC believes that companies with a research foundation in core equipment such as dry processes and isostatic pressing, which have formed joint verification or delivery history with major manufacturers, are likely to secure first-mover advantages in the initial ramp-up phase. Recommended stocks include LEAD INTELLIGENT (300450.SZ), HangKe Technology (688006.SH), and Lianying Laser (688518.SH), with a suggestion to pay attention to Yinghe Technology (300457.SZ) and related core equipment manufacturers. The coverage company's profit forecasts and ratings remain unchanged. Due to the cyclical turning point in the lithium battery industry and the increase in industry valuation centers, the target price for LEAD INTELLIGENT is raised by 80% to 63 yuan, corresponding to a 55.9x/41.0x P/E for 2025-2026, with a potential upside of 15%; the target price for HangKe Technology is raised by 73% to 45 yuan, corresponding to a 45.4x/37.3x P/E for 2025-2026, with a potential upside of 26%.

Risk factors

The progress of solid-state battery technology may fall short of expectations, risks of changes in technical routes, and downstream demand may not meet expectations