Open Source Securities: Leading robotics companies are reshaping pricing, and core component companies are expected to welcome valuation premiums

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Kaiyuan Securities released a research report stating that the pricing of Tesla's robots aligns with the valuation of Figure, and the asset pricing of both can serve as a valuation center for global robot manufacturers, further opening the valuation ceiling for global robot manufacturers. The firm believes that from the supply chain perspective, companies with continuous R&D and iteration capabilities, engineering capabilities, and global manufacturing capabilities are expected to integrate into the supply chain systems of leading robot companies like TESLA and Figure. Among them, companies focused on core components are expected to accelerate their integration into the supply chain.

1. Rotary actuators and reducers: Longsheng Technology (300680.SZ); 2) Linear actuators: Zhenyu Technology (300953.SZ), Tuopu Group (601689.SH), Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050.SZ); 3) Dexterous hands: Zhenyu Technology, Rongtai Health (603579.SH), Jundingda (301538.SZ); 4) Lead screws: Wuzhou Xinchun (603667.SH), Zhenyu Technology, Zhejiang Rongtai (603119.SH); 5) Motors: Xinzhi Group (002664.SZ); 6) Lightweight: Weike Technology (301196.SZ), Hengbo Co., Ltd. (301225.SZ); 7) Structural parts: Lingyi Zhizao (002600.SZ), Changying Precision (300115.SZ); 8) Applications: Taotao Automotive (301345.SZ).

Key points from Kaiyuan Securities are as follows:

Global leading robot manufacturers' pricing is being reshaped, opening the valuation ceiling for robot manufacturers

On September 16, Figure announced the completion of its Series C financing, with a post-investment valuation rising to $39 billion. Assuming a mass production of 100,000 robots, if the value per unit drops to $20,000 with scaled production, it corresponds to a PS of about 20 times. Previously, Tesla announced a 10-year compensation plan designed for Musk, with the goal of delivering 1 million units of the Optimus robot, corresponding to a market value of $500 billion. Based on a future unit price of $25,000, Tesla's robot business pricing is at a 20 times PS, aligning with Figure's valuation. The firm believes that the asset pricing of Tesla and Figure can serve as a valuation center for global robot manufacturers, further opening the valuation ceiling for global robot manufacturers.

Core component companies are expected to enjoy significant valuation premiums, with industry early-stage PE potentially reaching 200 times

The elevation of valuations for robot manufacturers is expected to further enhance the Matthew effect in the industry, with core component companies having significant room for valuation increases in the early stages of the industry. Assuming hardware costs account for 70%, referencing Tesla's robot valuation, if each robot has 28 joint modules, with mass production bringing the cost of each module to $300, the PS for joint module companies would be around 30 times, assuming a net profit margin of 15%, corresponding to a PE of about 200 times. The firm believes that from 2028 to 2035, leading robot manufacturers are expected to guide mass production to reach one million units, and the vast market space is sufficient to accommodate higher valuations. Additionally, the ramp-up of robots is nonlinear, with the number of robots growing exponentially, allowing core component companies to have their valuations quickly absorbed from the early stages to the ramp-up period. Furthermore, the firm references the average valuation levels of some robot component companies over the past three years, with their PE overall maintaining around 200 times, consistent with previous calculations Supply chain, data, and scenarios are key, focusing on core components such as dexterous hands and joint assemblies. This financing round for Figure focuses on the implementation of application scenarios, infrastructure construction, and training data collection. Musk emphasized the key points of Tesla's Gen3 robot: vertical integration of the supply chain, AI5 chips, and dexterous hands. Overall, both parties' product requirements focus on several aspects such as supply chain integration and chip algorithms. The bank predicts that the hardware technology solutions and supply chains of both parties will eventually converge.

From the supply chain dimension, companies in the following three areas are expected to enter the supply chain systems of leading robot companies like TESLA and Figure: 1) Continuous cooperation in R&D and iteration capabilities; 2) Engineering capabilities to ensure feasibility; 3) Companies with global manufacturing capabilities. Among them, companies focused on key core components are expected to accelerate their integration into the supply chain: 1) Dexterous hands, which are crucial for precise operations in application scenarios; 2) Actuators and motors, which involve vertical integration capabilities of the supply chain.

Risk Warning: Robot mass production may fall short of expectations; supply chain development may not meet expectations