Understanding the Market | Gold stocks continue to rise, spot gold hits new highs, and market expectations for interest rate cuts are relatively clear

According to Zhitong Finance APP, gold stocks continue to rise. As of the time of publication, Shandong Gold (01787) is up 3.5%, trading at HKD 39.6; Chifeng Gold (06693) is up 3.34%, trading at HKD 31.54; Zhaojin Mining (01818) is up 2.62%, trading at HKD 30.58; Lingbao Gold (03330) is up 2.2%, trading at HKD 18.09; China Gold International (02099) is up 1.85%, trading at HKD 137.5.

On the news front, on September 22, gold prices surged again, with spot gold surpassing USD 3,720 per ounce, setting a new historical high, with an intraday increase of over 1%. Galaxy Securities believes that after the Federal Reserve restarted interest rate cuts, the trend of gradually easing monetary policy may have been established. In the future, under the impact of a declining U.S. labor market, the Federal Reserve may continue to cut interest rates, prompting global gold ETF funds to accelerate their accumulation of gold to boost gold prices. In this Federal Reserve interest rate cut meeting, the new Federal Reserve governor appointed by Trump, Milan, called for a 50 basis point cut in September and a total of 150 basis points by 2025, which diverges from the opinions of other Federal Reserve officials and may also raise concerns in the market about the future independence of the Federal Reserve, increasing the upward elasticity of gold prices.

Shenwan Futures analysis points out that under the continuous pressure from Trump, the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts remains relatively cautious, but the outlook for rate cuts is quite clear. The market expects that both of the remaining two meetings this year will result in rate cuts. U.S. retail sales in August performed strongly, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, compared to an estimate of 0.2%. Year-on-year growth was 2.1%, achieving positive growth for the 11th consecutive month. The U.S. trade negotiations have shown multiple progress, and the impact of tariffs on inflation may be limited, leading to certain expectations for investment growth in the fourth quarter. The U.S. fiscal deficit and debt continue to expand, and central banks, represented by China, continue to increase their gold holdings, indicating that the long-term driving force for gold remains clear. After a brief adjustment, expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates have sustained bullish sentiment