BOCIC: Market sentiment continues; DRAM may see a comprehensive price increase in the second half of the year

According to the report from BOCIC, due to the suspension of old process DRAM products by DRAM manufacturers, the prices of DDR4 and LPDDR4X have surged significantly, and the DRAM market remains prosperous. Following the price increase in Q3 2025, the industry is expected to achieve a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20%-50% in Q4 2025. Nanya Technology's contract price in Q3 2025 rose by 70% quarter-on-quarter, with a further increase of 50% expected in Q4 2025. Winbond's price increased by 60% in Q3 2025, with another 20% rise anticipated in Q4 2025. As major overseas manufacturers exit the niche DRAM market, the supply-demand dynamics have changed, leading to a situation of supply shortages and rising product prices. According to GigaDevice, the price increase for niche DRAM products is still ongoing, and shortages are expected to persist throughout the year.

BOCIC's main viewpoints are as follows:

Enterprise-level stocking combined with demand for new mobile phones drives rising NAND price sentiment

Domestic internet companies are significantly increasing capital expenditures and ramping up investments in AI. Alibaba's capital expenditure for "AI + Cloud" reached 38.6 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with plans to invest over 380 billion yuan in cloud and AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years. Baidu's capital expenditure in Q2 2025 reached 3.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of nearly 80%. Tencent's capital expenditure doubled year-on-year to 19.107 billion yuan in Q2 2025.

Currently, as AI applications accelerate their penetration, the construction of AI infrastructure continues to expand, and the demand for storage due to massive data is increasing day by day, enterprise-level storage applications have high potential. The CFM flash memory market is expected to see a price increase in the storage market in Q4 2025, primarily focusing on the enterprise and mobile phone markets, with enterprise-level storage prices expected to achieve single-digit increases, and mobile embedded storage prices also likely to rise slightly.

Manufacturer EOL notifications drive significant increases in DDR4 and LPDDR4X prices, with the DRAM market in H2 2025 likely to see widespread price increases

Due to the suspension of old process DRAM products by DRAM manufacturers, the prices of DDR4 and LPDDR4X have surged significantly, and the DRAM market remains prosperous. Following the price increase in Q3 2025, the industry is expected to achieve a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20%-50% in Q4 2025. Nanya Technology's contract price in Q3 2025 rose by 70% quarter-on-quarter, with a further increase of 50% expected in Q4 2025. Winbond's price increased by 60% in Q3 2025, with another 20% rise anticipated in Q4 2025. Winbond's contract price in Q4 2025 is expected to rise by 80%-90% compared to the low point in Q2 2025, showing significant growth.

Structural shortages lead to rising prices in the niche market, with customized storage on the edge reaching vast potential

Since 2025, the combined revenue of the three major niche storage manufacturers in Taiwan—Macronix, Winbond, and Nanya Technology—has generally shown a month-on-month upward trend. NOR Flash: With the increasing demand from AI data centers and the gradual recovery of the automotive market, the supply-demand situation in the NOR Flash market is becoming healthier, making timely price increases an inevitable trend. NOR Flash prices are expected to rise to double-digit percentages in Q4 2025, potentially continuing into 2026.

Niche DRAM: As major overseas manufacturers exit the niche DRAM market, the supply-demand dynamics have changed, leading to a situation of supply shortages and rising product prices. According to GigaDevice, the price increase for niche DRAM products is still ongoing, and shortages are expected to persist throughout the year Customized storage: With the launch and implementation of the first-generation products, customized storage is gradually gaining momentum. Stacking solutions are expected to scale up in edge applications, and companies with first-mover advantages are likely to deeply benefit from the industrial wave.

Investment Recommendations

It is recommended to pay attention to niche storage: Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH), Purun Co., Ltd. (688766.SH), Juchen Co., Ltd. (688123.SH), Dosilicon (688110.SH); module manufacturers: Kaipu Cloud (688228.SH), Jiangbolong (301308.SZ), Demingli (001309.SZ), Baiwei Storage (688525.SH), Shannon Semiconductor (300475.SZ); storage supporting chips: Lanke Technology (688008.SH), Lianyun Technology (688449.SH).

Risk Factors

AI application development is less than expected; storage supply chain price increases are less than expected; internet companies' capital expenditures are revised down or not proactive; customized storage implementation is less than expected