Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Analysis | The rise of chips leads the way, CHERY AUTO to debut on the Hong Kong stock market tomorrow

[Market Dissection]

The current market has a bit of a see-saw flavor. Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively adjusted, while today, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rebounded, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 1.37%.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke at an event hosted by the Providence Chamber of Commerce in Rhode Island, stating that stock price valuations are quite high according to many indicators. As the most authoritative figure globally, this statement undoubtedly dealt a blow to the U.S. stock market. Additionally, Trump has reversed his stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict: Ukraine is expected to regain all lost territory, encouraging NATO to shoot down invading Russian aircraft. This shows that after failing to woo Putin, Trump is left with no options and continues to promote arms sales to the military-industrial complex.

China's Fujian ship showcased its powerful technological strength with a stunning 'three-shot' launch. This marks a strategic shift of our navy from 'near-sea defense' to 'far-sea defense.' According to CCTV News, around 4:30 AM on September 23, the "Istanbul Bridge" vessel departed from the Beilun Port area of Ningbo Zhoushan Port, heading to the UK's largest container port, Felixstowe. This marks the official launch of the world's first China-Europe Arctic container express route. Yesterday, it was mentioned that Poland closed the ports along the China-Europe freight train route, but today the situation has changed. On September 23, local time, Polish Prime Minister Tusk announced that the border port with Belarus would reopen at dawn on the 25th. He also stated that if necessary, the government would close the border port again. Poland's actions are somewhat timely, as even if this port is closed, China has strong ocean-going capabilities to use the Arctic route, which would be detrimental to Poland itself, so they quickly decided to reopen it.

This naturally boosts confidence in European foreign trade exports. Today, the Ministry of Commerce, together with the Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and other eight departments, issued "Several Policy Measures to Promote Service Exports," which includes 13 specific measures to provide comprehensive policy support for service exports. Related stocks such as Hisense Home Appliances (00921) and TCL Electronics (01070) surged over 14% and 6%, respectively.

Today, the market is flooded with news about domestic photolithography machines. On September 23, 2025, Shenzhen Wanding Juxin Technology Co., Ltd. announced that the first domestically produced high-precision stepper photolithography machine officially rolled off the production line; additionally, on September 23, the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) photolithography machine parameters were publicly displayed for the first time at the Shanghai Microelectronics (SMEE) booth during the Industrial Expo. Photolithography machines, as the "crown jewel" of semiconductor manufacturing, have extremely high technical barriers and almost zero domestic substitution rate, making this breakthrough a significant positive development.

Driven by the AI boom, global memory chip giant Micron Technology reported better-than-expected revenue and profits for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2025 and provided strong guidance for the current quarter's performance. As one of the top three memory chip manufacturers globally, the demand for its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips is robust. Overall, the AI sector is thriving, and the potential for domestic substitution is considerable. Yesterday, as mentioned in the sector gathering, SMIC (00981) rose nearly 6%, Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) rose nearly 4%, and ASMPT (00522) rose over 6%. Yesterday, it was discussed that NVIDIA has made a trillion-dollar investment in AI, and domestically, there is also an increase in investment. At the 2025 Cloud Habitat Conference held in Hangzhou, Alibaba Group CEO and Chairman of Alibaba Cloud Intelligence Group, Eric Wu, stated in his speech: First, Tongyi Qianwen firmly adopts an open-source and open approach, committed to creating the "Android of the AI era";

Secondly, it aims to build a super AI cloud as the "next-generation computer" to provide a smart computing power network globally. Alibaba is actively promoting a three-year plan for AI infrastructure construction with an investment of 380 billion, and will continue to add larger investments. By 2032, the energy consumption scale of Alibaba Cloud's global data centers will increase tenfold. This means that Alibaba Cloud's computing power investment will increase exponentially. Alibaba-W (09988) rose over 9%, and its largest client, GDS Holdings Limited, GDS-SW (09698), also saw a rise of over 6% due to direct benefits.

According to the latest data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, from January to July 2025, the sales of new passenger cars equipped with combined driving assistance systems in China reached 7.76 million units, with a penetration rate of 62.6%, an increase of 5.7 million units and 40 percentage points compared to the same period in 2021. Combined driving assistance systems have become a highlight of new market models and an important consideration for consumers. Youjia Innovation (02431) recently officially launched its unmanned logistics brand "Xiao Zhu Unmanned Vehicle" and introduced two debut models, T5 and T8, officially entering the unmanned logistics track, rising nearly 5% today.

According to industry insiders, the Trump administration in the United States is currently seeking to acquire shares in Lithium Americas. The White House is renegotiating the terms of a $2.3 billion loan from the U.S. Department of Energy to the company. The reason the White House is focusing on Lithium Americas this time is clearly related to the Thacker Pass lithium mine project, which plays a crucial role in the development of the U.S. lithium supply chain. Lithium mines have become strategic resources, and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) rose over 3%.

On the morning of September 24, Xiaomi Group Chairman and CEO Lei Jun posted on Weibo, stating that the decision to manufacture cars and restart chip production was made almost simultaneously, betting all the savings accumulated by Xiaomi in its first ten years. Tomorrow, Lei Jun will hold his sixth annual speech, themed "Change." New smartphones such as Xiaomi 17, Xiaomi 17 PRO, and Xiaomi 17 PRO MAX will also be released, directly competing with Apple. Stocks in the Xiaomi supply chain, such as QiuTai Technology (01478), rose nearly 6%.

Chery Automobile (09973) will debut on the Hong Kong stock market tomorrow, with an IPO issuance price of HKD 30.75 per share, raising approximately HKD 9.1 billion, making it the largest IPO in the Hong Kong market in 2025 so far. The subscription has been enthusiastic, with the public offering oversubscribed over 237 times, setting a new record for IPO subscriptions in Hong Kong this year. Cornerstone investors include 13 institutions such as Hillhouse's HHLR, Jinglin Asset, Taikang Life, and Guoxuan High-Tech, with total subscriptions of approximately HKD 4.57 billion. Currently, the gray market is up about 9%. If it strengthens tomorrow, it is expected to stimulate the solid-state battery sector, such as Ruipu Lanjun (00666), Zhongchuang Xinhang (03931), and CATL (03750) [Sector Focus]

According to Baichuan Fuying data, the industry inventory on September 19 was 1.3 million tons, hitting a nearly one-year low; according to SMM data, the operating rate of photovoltaic glass has also been continuously declining since the end of August, with a capacity of 129,000 tons/day and an industry operating rate of 51.59% as of the end of August.

With the improvement of the supply-demand pattern, the price of photovoltaic glass has begun to rebound from the bottom. According to SMM data, the price of photovoltaic glass has been rising continuously since July. On September 19, the average prices of 3.2mm single-layer coated and 2.0mm single-layer coated were 20.25 and 13.35 yuan/square meter, respectively, an increase of 1.75 and 2.5 yuan/square meter compared to early July. Against the backdrop of industry anti-involution, photovoltaic glass with a good supply-demand pattern is expected to welcome profit recovery.

Main stocks in Hong Kong: Xinyi Solar (00968), Flat Glass Group (06865).

[Stock Picking]

Kuaishou-W (01024): New AI model release boosts market confidence, quarterly net profit margin hits a record high

Recently, the company announced the launch of the Keling AI 2.5 Turbo new model. Kuaishou achieved revenue of 35.046 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, with an adjusted net profit of 5.618 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%, corresponding to a profit margin of 16.0%. Kuaishou declared its first special dividend since going public, with a dividend of 0.46 HKD per share, totaling approximately 2 billion HKD.

Commentary: Kuaishou's Q2 2025 achieved a new high in adjusted net profit margin for a single quarter, exceeding market expectations. Kuaishou's traffic showed steady growth in Q2 2025. In Q2 2025, Kuaishou's DAU (average daily active users) reached 409 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, setting a historical high. Commercialization continued to grow steadily. In Q2 2025, Kuaishou's online marketing revenue was 19.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, with marginal improvement compared to the previous quarter. Kuaishou's other revenue was 5.237 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26%, exceeding market expectations, with e-commerce GMV reaching 358.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%. The average monthly number of e-commerce buyers was 134 million, with an increase in repurchase frequency. The GMV of general merchandise e-commerce accounted for over 32%. Live broadcast revenue was 10 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%. Keling technology continued to iterate, achieving revenue of 250 million yuan in Q2 2025, exceeding expectations. Kuaishou will launch the Keling 2.1 series model in May 2025, achieving comprehensive improvements in model quality. The cost of generating a 5-second video in high-quality mode with the new model is nearly 30% lower than that of version 2.1, with further enhanced effects.

Keling AI currently has over 45 million creators worldwide, with the product undergoing more than 30 iterations since its release, generating over 200 million videos and 400 million images, and serving over 20,000 enterprise clients through API services. From a commercialization perspective, Keling AI's market share continues to rise; according to Poe data, on May 4, 2025, the usage of Kling 2.0/1.6/1.5 reached 30.7%, ranking first; On the other hand, KeLing's revenue is growing rapidly, and based on this linear extrapolation, the annual revenue is expected to exceed 1 billion yuan. The company's new AI model release has boosted market confidence