What’s different this time? The U.S. government is once again in a shutdown crisis. Can the market really remain "calm" again?

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, as the Democratic and Republican parties in the U.S. Congress are at an impasse over the federal government's subsequent funding allocation plan, the risk of a partial government shutdown starting next week is continuing to rise. If the government shuts down, it could impact the market by restricting the operations of financial regulatory agencies and delaying the release of key economic data.

How might the market react?

Historically, the market often pays little attention to government shutdowns. However, this time, the situation may be different.

Analysts at Nomura Securities pointed out in a report this week that if the shutdown lasts for an extended period, it could lead to delays or even cancellations of the release of key data needed for investors to assess macroeconomic trends, such as monthly employment reports and inflation data.

The analysts further stated that this would put the Federal Reserve in a position of "blind decision-making," making it more likely to stick to its original economic forecast of two rate cuts of 25 basis points each within the remaining time of 2025.

In a report, TD Securities mentioned that due to investors being unable to gauge the extent of the U.S. economic slowdown, expectations for rate cuts will become more entrenched, potentially leading to a further steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, with the gap between short-term and long-term Treasury yields widening.

Additionally, a prolonged government shutdown could affect the ability of some market participants to engage in complex trades—these trades often require guidance and support from regulatory agencies.

What situation will financial regulatory agencies face?

According to the emergency plan for government funding interruptions established by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in October 2024, if a shutdown occurs, the agency may significantly reduce its workforce, retaining only a core team. Currently, the Trump administration has not widely publicized its response plan.

The reduction in personnel will severely weaken the SEC's core functions, including corporate document reviews, misconduct investigations, and market oversight.

Similarly, according to the emergency plan of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2023, during a shutdown, nearly all employees of the agency will enter unpaid leave, and most market oversight activities will also be suspended.

Looking back at past government shutdown cases, the CFTC has delayed the release of reports on futures and options market traders' positions multiple times due to shutdowns.

It is worth noting that the funding sources for U.S. banking regulators and consumer protection agencies do not come from congressional appropriations, so they will continue to operate normally during a shutdown.

Reports in 2019 indicated that a prolonged government shutdown that year delayed some of the Trump administration's regulatory rollbacks, partly because employees of the Federal Register Office were forced to take leave—this office is required to formally publish all documents in the rule-making process.

Will IPOs be affected?

The answer is yes. A government shutdown could cause the IPO process to come to a standstill. Companies planning to go public will be unable to advance their listing process if they cannot obtain SEC approval. This could weaken the momentum of the equity capital market, which has been thriving in recent months