Next week's heavy schedule: OpenAI conference, Federal Reserve Minutes, China's September social financing, Nobel Prize announcement

October 6 - October 12 Weekly Major Financial Events Overview, all times in Beijing:

Key focus for next week: OpenAI Annual Developer Conference, Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting minutes, speeches by central bank governors including Powell and Lagarde, China's September financial data and foreign exchange reserves, and the announcement of Nobel Prize winners.

In addition, the European Central Bank will release the minutes of the September monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Thailand will announce its interest rate decision, and companies such as Delta Air Lines, Fast Retailing, and PepsiCo will release their latest financial reports. Amazon's Prime Day event will also begin next week.

Economic Indicators

• China's Social Financing Scale Increment and New RMB Loans from January to September

Next week, the People's Bank of China will release key financial data including September's social financing and new RMB loans. Against the backdrop of weak credit data in August, the market is highly concerned whether the traditional "Golden September" peak season can significantly boost real financing demand. Institutions generally predict that with the optimization of previous real estate policies, the implementation of consumption promotion measures, and fiscal support, credit issuance in September is expected to achieve seasonal recovery.

• China's September Foreign Exchange Reserves

On October 7, China will announce its September foreign exchange reserves data. After a month-on-month rebound in August due to a weaker dollar and rising asset prices, the market's focus is on whether the central bank will increase its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month.

Financial Events

• OpenAI to Hold 2025 Developer Conference in San Francisco

OpenAI has announced that it will hold its third annual Developer Conference (DevDay 2025) in San Francisco on October 6. This conference will be unprecedented in scale, gathering over 1,500 developers. CEO Sam Altman's keynote speech, President Greg Brockman's "Developer Alliance" sharing, and Altman's fireside chat with legendary Apple designer Jony Ive signal a series of major announcements to come.

According to media reports and market analysis, the core highlight of this DevDay is OpenAI's strategic ambition to move beyond model APIs and fully enter the consumer product market.

AI Hardware Devices: The most anticipated is the first AI hardware device co-developed by OpenAI and Jony Ive. Since the news of their collaboration last year, the market has been filled with expectations. This conference is seen as the best opportunity to unveil this device. This product could disrupt traditional smartphone or personal assistant forms, with its design philosophy, functional positioning, and business model posing potential challenges to hardware giants like Apple and Google.

AI Native Applications: The long-rumored AI browser is another focal point. This could be a browser deeply integrated with large model capabilities, aimed at challenging Google Chrome's dominance and reshaping how users access and interact with information. Additionally, the conference may also disclose its progress in social media applications Core Model Upgrade: In the face of fierce competition from rivals such as Anthropic and Google, OpenAI is likely to release a new generation of flagship models, which are expected to achieve new breakthroughs in performance and may introduce more competitive API pricing to solidify its core position in the developer ecosystem.

• Federal Reserve Releases Minutes of Monetary Policy Meeting

On October 9, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the September FOMC policy meeting. At the September meeting, the updated dot plot unexpectedly showed that there is still room for a 50 basis point rate cut within the year, which sharply contrasts with the simultaneously raised economic growth and inflation forecasts, leaving the market confused. Therefore, these minutes will provide a window into the real debates within the Federal Reserve.

Economists generally predict that the tone of the minutes will be more hawkish than the statements made by Chairman Powell at the post-meeting press conference, potentially revealing concerns among several officials about continued easing. The document may also detail the disagreements among officials and could even specifically mention the unique views of new board member Stephen Milan regarding the neutral interest rate, revealing that most officials do not agree with him.

For the financial markets, the core concern for investors is to what extent these minutes can confirm or refute the market's dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve.

Impact on the bond market: A hawkish set of minutes will reinforce expectations for "higher for longer" interest rates, potentially pushing U.S. Treasury yields, which anchor global asset pricing, to rise again, putting direct pressure on bond prices.

Impact on the stock market: For the stock market, especially for interest-sensitive technology and growth stocks, hawkish signals will be negative, as they imply higher financing costs and a tighter financial environment, potentially ending the rebound driven by rate cut expectations.

• Intensive Speeches by Central Bank Governors and Senior Officials from the U.S., Japan, and Europe

From October 7 to 11 next week, global financial markets will focus on a series of significant speeches by central bank officials. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, European Central Bank President Lagarde, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo, and several Federal Reserve governors including Milan, Bowman, and regional Fed presidents will take turns to express their views on the economic outlook and monetary policy. Against the backdrop of diverging global inflation and economic prospects, the market will closely monitor their latest statements regarding future interest rate paths.

Federal Reserve: The market is particularly focused on the collective voices of several voting members, including Chairman Powell, Bostic, and Barr. Investors will look for signs of whether the consensus within the Federal Reserve on the "higher for longer" interest rate policy has shifted, as well as interpretations of the latest economic data; any hints regarding the prospects for rate cuts will be magnified.

European Central Bank: President Lagarde will deliver a speech, and the market will closely watch how she balances the weak economy in the Eurozone with persistently stubborn inflation, as her wording will directly influence market expectations regarding the timing of ECB rate cuts.

Bank of Japan: Governor Ueda Kazuo's speech is particularly critical. In the context of continued pressure on the yen, the market is eager to understand when the Bank of Japan will take further policy normalization measures (such as raising rates again); any hawkish remarks from him could trigger a sharp rebound in the yen exchange rate

• Nobel Prize winners in Medicine, Physics, Chemistry, and other categories announced

The highly anticipated 2025 Nobel Prize awarding season will kick off on October 6 and continue until October 13. Starting with the Physiology or Medicine Prize, the six major awards including Physics and Chemistry will be announced in succession. This is not only an annual event in the scientific community but is also seen by the capital markets as an important barometer for insights into future industry trends.

Looking back at 2024, artificial intelligence (AI) emerged as the biggest winner, with its foundational contributions in machine learning (Physics Prize) and protein structure prediction (Chemistry Prize) being recognized.

The market generally expects this trend focusing on "applied" and "interdisciplinary" research to continue this year. Analysts point out that the intersectionality of modern scientific awards is becoming increasingly evident; for example, the Chemistry Prize is often jokingly referred to as the "Comprehensive Science Prize," which means that investors need to pay attention to the disruptive nature of the technology itself rather than being confined to traditional disciplinary divisions