Guotai Junan Securities: Technological upgrades drive demand explosion, domestic robot companies compete fiercely

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guosen Securities released a research report stating that since the introduction of RTK technology, the demand for boundaryless lawn mowers has rapidly exploded due to quick product iterations and upgrades. In the field of pool robots, cable-free products are quickly becoming the industry mainstream due to their convenience and intelligence. The iteration of technology is driving the explosive demand for boundaryless lawn mowers and cable-free pool robots. Chinese companies are building product strength advantages through rapid product iterations while penetrating online and offline channels. In the wave of technological transformation in lawn mowers, continuously refining products and building advantages in products and channels will yield growth dividends.

Guosen Securities' main points are as follows:

Strong overseas lawn mowing demand, global lawn mower market worth billions of dollars

The lawn culture in Europe and America is prevalent, with a stock of 180 million private gardens, making lawn mowing a high-frequency necessity, thus giving rise to a large outdoor power tools market, including lawn mowers. According to data from Euromonitor and company announcements, the global lawn mower market is expected to reach USD 10 billion by 2024, with a compound growth rate of 2% from 2013 to 2023. Although the industry is relatively mature, changes in product category structures are quietly emerging. Among the three main categories of lawn mowers, handheld/riding mowers account for over 40% of sales, while robotic lawn mowers account for about 10%. With the iteration and upgrade of robotic lawn mower technology, there is significant room for improvement in penetration rates.

Rapid iteration of boundaryless smart lawn mowers is expected to drive increasing penetration rates

Robotic lawn mowers were introduced in 1995, but due to technological limitations, their product penetration rate was low. In 2021, Ninebot was the first to introduce RTK satellite differential positioning technology into robotic lawn mowers, achieving wire-free operation and centimeter-level positioning. Subsequently, domestic tech companies such as Chase, ECOVACS, and Kuka entered the market, launching various integrated technology solutions including vision and laser radar, leading to rapid iterations and significant improvements in user experience. Sales of robotic lawn mowers have exploded, with global sales in the first half of 2025 expected to grow by 327% year-on-year to 2.34 million units, of which 1.52 million units are boundaryless lawn mowers. The proportion of boundaryless mowers is expected to increase from 35% in 2024 to 65%, becoming the main driving force for growth. The continuous upgrade of robotic lawn mower technology is increasingly highlighting its advantages over traditional push and riding mowers, with long-term sales of boundaryless robotic lawn mowers expected to reach around 6 million units, accounting for 30% of the total sales in the lawn mower industry, indicating significant growth potential compared to current sales levels.

Competitive landscape of the robotic lawn mower industry: Domestic companies have clear technological advantages and are expected to become industry leaders

The mainstream companies in the robotic lawn mower industry can be divided into two categories. Traditional lawn mower leaders such as Husqvarna and Bosch still hold a significant market share in 2024 due to their channel and first-mover advantages, but their navigation technology solutions are relatively singular, and their layout for boundaryless products is lagging. In contrast, emerging domestic companies in the robotic lawn mower sector are continuously increasing their market share through rapid product iterations: Ninebot, Kuka, ECOVACS, and Chase are innovating in integrated technology solutions such as RTK + vision and RTK + laser radar, with products demonstrating clear cost-performance advantages and generally receiving better user ratings than traditional lawn mower leaders. Additionally, leading domestic electric tool companies such as QuanFeng Holdings, Grebo, Tengya Precision, and DAYE are also accelerating their layout in the boundaryless robotic lawn mower field, with new growth expected Currently, lawn mowing robots are undergoing rapid innovation and upgrades, with technology and product strength being the primary factors determining the landscape. Chinese companies have leading advantages in navigation, algorithms, and supply chains, and are expected to become industry leaders.

Pool Robots: Cordless Products Rapidly Rising, Chinese Companies Riding the Wave

In 2024, the global number of pools is expected to reach 32.9 million, with expenditures related to pool cleaning reaching $12.9 billion. The retail scale of the pool robot industry is projected to reach $2.5 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 16% from 2019 to 2024; the shipment volume is expected to be around 4.5 million units, with a compound annual growth rate of 12% over the past five years. With continuous technological upgrades, the penetration rate of pool robots is steadily increasing, rising from 18% in 2019 to 26% in 2024, and is expected to reach 34% by 2029, with shipment volume reaching 6.6 million units and a compound annual growth rate of 8% from 2024 to 2029; retail sales are expected to reach $4.2 billion, with a compound growth rate of 11%.

Cordless pool robots are gradually becoming mainstream in the industry, with shipments expected to reach 2 million units in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate of 81% from 2019 to 2024; by 2029, shipments are expected to reach 4.4 million units, with a compound growth rate of 17%, accounting for 66% of pool robots.

The pool robot industry is relatively concentrated, with the global shipment volume CR5 reaching 75% in 2024. Wangyuan Technology ranks third with a 9% market share. In the cordless pool robot sector, Chinese companies dominate the top five in shipment volume, with Wangyuan Technology leading at 20% market share.

Wangyuan Technology pioneered the introduction of cordless products in 2014, ranking third globally in pool robot shipments and first domestically. In 2024, the revenue share of the company's cordless products is expected to be 89%, with brand revenue accounting for 72%, and Amazon channel revenue making up 79%, holding a significant share in the online cordless pool robot market in Europe and the United States. The company is expected to strengthen its market position through continuous innovation and iteration, expanding its product matrix and online and offline channels.

Pool robots face pain points such as imprecise navigation solutions. In September 2025, Guangfeng Technology launched the first underwater blue laser radar, aiding the application of laser radar underwater, which is expected to promote the increase in industry penetration and enjoy the dividends of industry development. Tengya Precision is also vigorously expanding its pool robot manufacturing business, which is expected to create new growth.

Risk Warning: Industry demand may fall short of expectations, industry competition may intensify, international trade environment may deteriorate, expansion into new fields may not meet expectations, and significant fluctuations in raw materials and exchange rates may occur