Deutsche Bank predicts that by 2030, central banks around the world may hold significant reserves of Bitcoin and gold

With the acceleration of de-dollarization trends and a surge in demand for safe-haven assets, traditional central bank reserve allocations may undergo significant changes.

On October 10, according to a recent report by Deutsche Bank, as institutional investor interest grows and the dominance of the dollar weakens, Bitcoin and gold are expected to become important components of the reserves of several central banks globally by 2030.

The report indicates that central bank allocations of Bitcoin may reflect a new, modern "financial security cornerstone," comparable to the role gold played in the 20th century.

The report suggests that uncertainties arising from U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical risks are prompting investors to seek tools to hedge against inflation and prepare for a future where the role of traditional fiat currencies may diminish. In this context, the price of gold has surpassed the $4,000 per ounce mark, while Bitcoin's trading price is also approaching the historic high set earlier this week.

One of the core drivers of this trend is "de-dollarization." Data from the report shows that the dollar's share in global reserves has declined from 60% in 2000 to 41% in 2025. This change has not only boosted gold but also benefited Bitcoin, leading to record net inflows of $5 billion and $4.7 billion into gold and Bitcoin ETFs, respectively, in June.

The Return of Gold and the Wave of De-dollarization

Gold's status as a traditional safe-haven asset is being reaffirmed. Researchers at Deutsche Bank point out that since the 2008 financial crisis, the demand for gold has begun to occupy a more important position on central banks' balance sheets. The "safe-haven" behavior of institutional investors drove central banks to become net buyers of gold in 2010.

Now, with increasing trade uncertainties and market volatility, "gold is back," wrote Deutsche Bank senior economist Marion Laboure in the report. A significant sign is that the total amount of gold held in global central bank reserves has exceeded 36,000 tons. This trend is closely related to the wave of "de-dollarization," as the relative decline of the dollar's status creates space for alternative reserve assets like gold.

Bitcoin: The "Digital Gold" of the 21st Century?

Deutsche Bank analysts believe that Bitcoin is enjoying record market performance and is gaining increasing attention as a potential reserve asset. The report draws a parallel between the current debates among policymakers regarding Bitcoin and the discussions surrounding gold in the 20th century, noting clear similarities between the two.

Marion Laboure stated in the report that Bitcoin is expected to become a new "financial security cornerstone." Although this view "remains highly controversial," Bitcoin, as a well-performing asset, is sparking increasingly widespread discussions about its potential role in future central bank reserve strategies.

Is the Dollar Still Irreplaceable?

However, not all market observers share this vision. Analysts at JP Morgan recently presented a different view in a report, suggesting that stablecoins may unlock new demand for the dollar JP Morgan expects that depending on the scale of overseas investment, the growth of the stablecoin market could bring an additional demand of $1.4 trillion for the US dollar by 2027.

At the same time, although Deutsche Bank's report depicts a broad prospect for Bitcoin and gold as reserve assets, its conclusions are quite cautious.

Marion Laboure clearly points out that "neither Bitcoin nor gold will completely replace the US dollar." The report emphasizes that in central banks' reserve strategies, digital assets should be viewed as a "complementary" tool to national currencies, rather than a substitute.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

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