Haitong International: The demand for gold and jewelry at the end of the Golden Week exceeded expectations, and the fixed-price strategy promoted structural upgrades

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Haitong International released a research report stating that during the Golden Week of 2025, the sales performance of gold and jewelry terminal stores exceeded expectations, mainly due to the concentration of sample stores in the core areas of the Yangtze River Delta (Shanghai, Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou) and certain cities in Anhui and Shandong. These areas have a relatively developed economy, strong consumer purchasing power, and a high acceptance of fixed-price gold jewelry. CHJ (002345.SZ) achieved a year-on-year growth of about 30%, performing the best among the four major brands; LFX (600612.SH) and China Gold (600916.SH) maintained steady growth with a year-on-year growth rate of about 15%; CHOW TAI FOOK (01929) is in a structural adjustment phase, achieving moderate growth of about 5%. Overall, the total sales during the Golden Week achieved a year-on-year positive growth, with the increase in average transaction value being the main driving factor, while sales volume remained relatively stable.

Haitong International's main viewpoints are as follows:

Event: On October 8, 2025, Haitong International held an expert meeting on the gold and jewelry industry, inviting heads of multi-brand agency companies in East China to share channel sales performance, brand strategy dynamics, and industry trends. The expert companies mainly represent the four major brands: CHOW TAI FOOK, CHJ, LFX, and China Gold.

Golden Week sales rhythm exceeded expectations, CHJ leads in growth

Experts stated that during the Golden Week of 2025, the sales performance of terminal stores exceeded expectations, mainly due to the concentration of sample stores in the core areas of the Yangtze River Delta (Shanghai, Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou) and certain cities in Anhui and Shandong. These areas have a relatively developed economy, strong consumer purchasing power, and a high acceptance of fixed-price gold jewelry. According to expert sample data, CHJ achieved a year-on-year growth of about 30%, performing the best among the four major brands, mainly benefiting from its young and innovative design style and flexible marketing strategies; LFX and China Gold maintained steady growth with a year-on-year growth rate of about 15%; CHOW TAI FOOK is in a structural adjustment phase, achieving moderate growth of about 5%. Overall, the total sales during the Golden Week achieved a year-on-year positive growth, with experts pointing out that the increase in average transaction value was the main driving factor, while sales volume remained relatively stable.

The proportion of fixed-price products continues to rise, brand strategy differentiation accelerates

In 2025, against the backdrop of fluctuating high gold prices, various brands generally increased the proportion of fixed-price products to balance gross profit pressure and optimize profit structure. According to expert samples, currently, the proportion of fixed-price products for CHJ is about 60-70%, for LFX and China Gold it is about half, and for CHOW TAI FOOK it is gradually increasing to 30-40%. Experts pointed out that the fixed-price model helps to enhance average transaction value and profit margins, but there are differences in acceptance among customers who are accustomed to traditional weight-based pricing.

CHOW TAI FOOK has previously led the industry with the scale advantage of weight-based products but has shifted towards profit orientation in recent years; the expert company plans to close some inefficient stores (about 10) and strengthen the structure of fixed-price products. In the short term, this may lead to customer loss, but in the medium to long term, it will help profit recovery. CHJ continues its expansion pace, with the expert company expecting to add 10-20 new stores, focusing on shopping centers and young customer groups. LFX and China Gold maintain a steady strategy, relying on their old customer base and regional protection policies to keep revenue stable, with no plans for new stores at present Different store sizes among brands, with variations in inventory control and channel management

In the expert sample, the single-store volume of LFX is approximately 18 million, leading among the sample brands; CHOW TAI FOOK stores have annual sales of over 15 million, with experts indicating that stores with sales below 10 million will gradually close; China Gold and CHJ have similar single-store scales, around 13 million.

From the perspective of inventory management, CHJ implements a refined replenishment mechanism, systematically tracking the sales data of single products from the top 50 franchisees nationwide to support purchasing decisions, and proportionally allocating inventory for certain co-branded products, resulting in high inventory turnover efficiency; CHOW TAI FOOK primarily uses a consignment system, with some series implementing rigid allocation, managing inventory transfers based on store sales performance, leading to a structure more dominated by the brand side; in contrast, LFX and China Gold operate relatively traditional models, where franchisees obtain goods from wholesale companies, hang brand labels, and have ongoing purchasing tasks from the brand side.

Outlook for the fourth quarter and 2026, with potential continuation of structural differentiation in the industry

According to the expert sample, the sales fluctuation for the first three quarters of 2025 is approximately 10%/-5%/15%. Experts expect traditional brand sales to remain stable with slight increases in the fourth quarter, while growth rates among brands will continue to diverge. Looking ahead to 2026, experts anticipate that CHJ will accelerate expansion and strengthen penetration into shopping center channels; CHOW TAI FOOK will continue to focus on profit recovery and structural optimization; the competitive focus in the industry will further center on product innovation, brand rejuvenation, and channel efficiency improvement.

Risk Warning

Fluctuations in the macro economy and consumer confidence; significant increases in gold prices compressing terminal profits; risks of industry inventory backlog; brand expansion speed and new store profitability falling short of expectations