Breakfast | Technology stocks, rare earth mining stocks, and quantum computing concept stocks soar collectively!

Market Overview

Tech stocks support the rebound of U.S. stocks, with the Nasdaq rising over 2% and the S&P up over 1%, both achieving their largest daily gains in four and a half months; the chip index rose nearly 5%, and Broadcom surged nearly 10% after reaching a significant agreement with OpenAI; following JP Morgan's investment announcement, rare earth mining stocks and quantum computing stocks saw double-digit gains, with Critical Metals up 55% and Rigetti up 25%; the China concept index rose over 3%, with Nio up 7% and Alibaba up nearly 5%.

Gold and silver both hit historic highs. Gold surpassed $4,100 for the first time in history, with futures rising over 3% during the session; London silver market experienced a historic short squeeze, with silver breaking the $50 mark, and silver futures rose over 7%, marking the first closing historical high since 1980.

The U.S. dollar index rebounded, approaching a two-month high; the offshore yuan rose over 100 points during the session, recovering to 7.14; after a sharp decline last Friday, cryptocurrencies continued to rebound, with Bitcoin rising nearly 2% back above $116,000 and Ethereum briefly rising over 5%.

Crude oil and copper futures, which suffered heavy losses last Friday, also rebounded. Crude oil moved away from a five-month low, with U.S. oil rising over 2% during the session. Copper on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose nearly 6%, reaching a new high in over two months.

During the Asian session, A-shares opened lower but rose higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering nearly 100 points from its daily low. Rare earths surged, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.5%, Kingsoft soared over 13%, government bonds rose, and commodities fell.

Key News

China's exports in U.S. dollars in September increased by 8.3% year-on-year, while imports rose by 7.4%, both exceeding expectations, with strong growth in industrial robots and wind power exports; September saw historically high imports of soybeans and iron ore, while rare earth exports fell by 31% month-on-month, and copper metal imports reached a new high for the year.

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the U.S. threats of additional tariffs in retaliation for China's rare earth controls: this is not the correct way to engage with China, urging the U.S. to quickly correct its erroneous practices and resolve mutual concerns through dialogue. If the U.S. insists on its course, China will also take corresponding measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.

China's Ministry of Transport issued a method for charging special port fees for U.S. vessels, effective from October 14, with the scope, standards, and start and end times of the fees to be dynamically adjusted as needed.

Last Friday, the "precise short selling" drew the attention of the entire market, with a mysterious trader once again opening a $160 million Bitcoin short position.

Following last Friday's "historic liquidation" in the cryptocurrency market, Binance stated that "some platform modules experienced brief technical failures, leading to some assets becoming uncoupled."

OpenAI signed another significant agreement: planning to collaborate with Broadcom to deploy 10GW of customized chips and network equipment over the next four years.

Goldman Sachs significantly raised its capital expenditure expectations for Tencent to 350 billion yuan over three years, optimistic about the acceleration of cloud business, and substantially increased Alibaba's capital expenditure forecast for the next three years to 460 billion yuan, believing that the internationalization of cloud business is underestimated and that AI spending conversion is reshaping growth

eSIM phones are here: Apple iPhone Air is scheduled to be released in China on October 22, supported by all three major carriers.

The Sharm El Sheikh summit is held, with Egypt, the United States, Turkey, and Qatar guaranteeing a ceasefire in Gaza.

2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences announced: awarded for "explanation of innovation-driven economic growth", with three economists receiving the prize.

Market Report

US and European Stock Markets: The S&P 500 rose 1.56%, closing at 6654.72 points. The Dow Jones increased by 1.29%, closing at 46067.58 points. The Nasdaq climbed 2.21%, closing at 22694.608 points. The European STOXX 600 index closed up 0.44%, at 566.63 points.

A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.19%, closing at 3889.50 points; the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.93%, closing at 13231.47 points; the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.11%, closing at 3078.76 points.

Bond Market: US Treasuries are closed.

Commodities: WTI November crude oil futures rose 1%, closing at $59.49 per barrel. Brent December crude oil futures increased by 0.94%, closing at $63.32 per barrel. COMEX December gold futures rose 3.3%, closing at $4133 per ounce. COMEX December silver futures increased by 6.7%, closing at $50.429 per ounce. COMEX December copper futures rose 5.1%, closing at $5.144 per pound.

News Details

Global Highlights

China's exports in September increased by 8.3% year-on-year in US dollars, imports rose by 7.4% year-on-year, both exceeding expectations, with strong growth in industrial robots and wind power exports; In September, China's soybean and iron ore imports hit historical highs for the same period, rare earth exports fell by 31% month-on-month, and copper metal imports reached a new high for the year.

• China's exports in September recorded the highest year-on-year growth rate in six months, while the year-on-year growth rate of imports was the highest in 17 months. Analysts point out that "export rush" may continue in October. In the first three quarters, China's exports of industrial robots increased by 54.9%. Wind power exports have accelerated, with exports of wind turbine units and parts growing by 23.9%. In the first three quarters, the growth rates of "new three types" products and railway electric locomotives and other green products all reached double digits
• In September, China's soybean imports reached 12.87 million tons, the highest level for that month in history, a year-on-year increase of 13.19%, setting a historical second-high record. Although rare earth exports decreased by 31% month-on-month in quantity, the export value rose from USD 5.5 million in August to USD 5.96 million, an increase of over 8%. In September, iron ore imports reached 116.33 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.72%, setting a new record for the same period.
• Guo Lei from GF Securities stated that September's exports remained high year-on-year, partly due to the low base from the same period last year, with resilient performance consistent with high-frequency data. The import growth rate was relatively high in September, with a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, particularly for iron ore, copper, and integrated circuits. The acceleration in imports may be related to policy financial tools and the commencement of "dual" projects, and whether this continuity exists will be worth observing in the future. If confirmed that project commencement is the driving force, it would have certain implications for investment improvement in the fourth quarter.
• Minsheng Macro stated that current exports reflect the solid results of China's diversified market layout and industrial chain upgrading. Additionally, while high-tech product exports have rebounded significantly, exports to emerging markets such as Africa and Latin America have also seen notable growth. Finally, under the trend of "anti-involution," price recovery has begun to transmit externally. In September, the prices of most export products gradually recovered, and the favorable trend of "stable volume and rising prices" has become increasingly evident.

The U.S. threatens to impose additional tariffs in retaliation for China's rare earth controls, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds: This is not the correct way to engage with China. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian reiterated that China urges the U.S. to correct its erroneous practices as soon as possible, guided by the important consensus reached in the conversation between the two heads of state, to resolve respective concerns through dialogue on the basis of equality, respect, and mutual benefit, properly manage differences, and maintain stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China-U.S. relations. "If the U.S. insists on its own way, China will resolutely take corresponding measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests."

• The Dutch government will impose restrictions on Nexperia, a subsidiary of Wingtech Technology, and China responds. Lin Jian pointed out that China has consistently opposed the broadening of the "national security" concept and discriminatory practices against specific national enterprises. Relevant countries should earnestly adhere to market principles and avoid politicizing economic and trade issues. China's determination to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests is unwavering.

China's Ministry of Transport issues implementation measures for charging special port fees for U.S. vessels**. The measures will take effect on October 14, 2025, and from that day, qualifying U.S. vessels docking at Chinese ports will be charged RMB 400 per net ton. The fee will increase annually over the next three years, reaching RMB 1,120 per net ton by 2028 Ships built in China, empty ships that have only been repaired in Chinese shipyards, and other ships that are exempted by certification are exempt from fees. The scope, standards, and start and end times for fee collection will be dynamically adjusted as needed.

Last Friday, "precise shorting" attracted the attention of the entire market, as a mysterious trader opened a $160 million Bitcoin short position. On October 12, this trader invested $16 million on the Hyperliquid platform to establish a 10x leveraged Bitcoin short position, entering at a Bitcoin price of $117,370, with a liquidation price set at $123,500. After the market crash last Friday, the timing of this precise shorting has sparked controversy, with some questioning whether this trader had information unknown to ordinary investors. Binance founder Zhao Changpeng stated, "Uncertain about the validity, hope someone can cross-verify."

After the "historic liquidation" in the crypto circle on Friday, Binance stated that "some platform modules experienced a brief technical failure, leading to some assets decoupling". Binance acknowledged technical issues on the platform and has initiated compensation, but insisted that its core trading engine is operating normally, attributing the market crash to macro factors rather than the platform. There is a circulating theory in the market regarding a "targeted attack" on Binance's margin system—specific assets being deliberately suppressed leading to chain liquidations, to which Binance responded that the market drop occurred before the decoupling of platform assets.

Bank of America bullish on gold and silver: raises 2026 gold target price to $5,000, silver to $65. Bank of America pointed out that the White House's "non-traditional policy framework" will continue to benefit gold, including expanding fiscal deficits and rising debt, which will support gold prices to reach $5,000 next year. Silver is about to face its fifth consecutive year of structural supply shortages; although physical demand may decline by 11% in 2026, the ongoing supply shortage will still push silver prices to $65/ounce.

• Bank of America’s Hartnett: The currency devaluation trade is far from over, gold is expected to hit $6,000 next spring. Hartnett emphasized that expectations of changes in Federal Reserve policy, government stimulus measures, and a potential gold revaluation (similar to 1934 and 1973) will support the currency devaluation trade. Based on the average performance of the past four bull markets, gold prices have averaged a 300% increase over 43 months.
• Zhang Yu: Gold needs to open up imagination. Recently, gold prices broke through $4,000, and Zhang Yu from Huachuang Securities believes that traditional real interest rates or expectations of interest rate cuts can no longer explain this round of price increase. She innovatively proposed that the core driving force behind gold prices is the market's expectation of a "reconstruction of global political and economic order." With the unique low correlation value of gold in global asset allocation, it is necessary to open our imagination and maintain a strategic awe for gold, as its upward trend may be far from over.

OpenAI signs a major agreement: plans to deploy 10GW customized chips and network equipment in collaboration with Broadcom over the next four years. OpenAI has signed a multi-year agreement with Broadcom to deploy 10 gigawatts (GW) of AI data center capacity. This scale is equivalent to the power generation of about five Hoover Dams, marking the entry of AI infrastructure construction into the era of ultra-large scale. Previously, OpenAI had just reached a maximum investment agreement of $100 billion with NVIDIA and signed a 6GW chip supply agreement with AMD.

Goldman Sachs significantly raises Tencent's capital expenditure expectations, forecasting RMB 350 billion over three years, optimistic about the acceleration of cloud business. Goldman Sachs believes that AI can empower almost all of Tencent's business lines, including gaming, advertising, fintech, cloud services, and e-commerce. Currently, Tencent's price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 is 19 times (16 times excluding investments), which is lower than Meta and Google. Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for Tencent's capital expenditure to RMB 350 billion and is optimistic about the accelerated growth of the mixed Yuan model in LMarena and the cloud business.

Goldman Sachs significantly raises Alibaba's future three-year capital expenditure forecast to RMB 460 billion: the internationalization of cloud business is underestimated, and AI spending transformation is reshaping growth! Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its forecast for Alibaba's capital expenditure for the fiscal years 2026-2028 to RMB 460 billion, making it one of Wall Street's most aggressive forecasts. Analysts state that the transformation of AI capital expenditure is reshaping Alibaba's growth expectations. Although the company has recently experienced a pullback due to profit-taking, its breakthrough progress in AI cloud computing capabilities and potential for international expansion provide new upward momentum for its stock price. It is expected that by the fiscal year 2028, international business will contribute one-quarter of Alibaba Cloud's external revenue.

eSIM phones are here! Apple iPhone Air is set to be released in China on October 22, supported by all three major carriers. Apple has announced that the eSIM phone iPhone Air will officially go on sale in mainland China on October 22, starting at a price of 7,999 yuan. Previously, the model could not be launched on time due to the lack of approval for eSIM services from the three major carriers. On October 13, China Unicom, China Mobile, and China Telecom all announced that they had received approval from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to conduct commercial trials of eSIM mobile phone services.

Duan Yongping takes action again, “bought some Moutai” on Monday, urging investors not to be afraid. Renowned investor Duan Yongping has once again spoken out on social media, stating that he “bought some Moutai” on Monday "Previously, he emphasized multiple times, 'Moutai is the best endorsement for Moutai,' 'What uncertainty does Moutai have?' 'Among high-end liquors, Moutai is the most economical.'"

The Sharm El-Sheikh summit was held, four countries guarantee a ceasefire in Gaza. On Monday, the United States, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey signed documents regarding the Gaza ceasefire agreement in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. The leaders of the four countries committed as guarantors to support the implementation of the Gaza ceasefire agreement. Hamas did not send representatives to the meeting. Palestinian President Abbas attended and had a brief meeting with Trump. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu canceled his attendance at the last minute, citing the start of a Jewish holiday that evening.

The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences announced: Recognizing "the explanation of innovation-driven economic growth," three economists awarded. Joel Mokyr will receive half of the prize for his recognition of the conditions necessary for sustained growth through technological advancement; Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt will share the remaining portion for their theory of achieving sustained growth through creative destruction.

Overseas Macro

During a government shutdown, breaking the norm? U.S. Treasury Secretary says to adjust payment order to prioritize military salaries. Becerra stated that the Treasury had to prioritize payments and delay some to ensure timely military salaries. His predecessor Yellen said two years ago that the Treasury system was not designed to prioritize expenditures. Last Sunday, U.S. Vice President Pence stated that extraordinary measures would be taken to ensure military salaries, with some funds coming from cuts in other areas.

The U.S. Department of Defense plans to spend $1 billion to accelerate the purchase of key minerals like cobalt and antimony. Recent procurement intentions include plans to purchase $500 million in cobalt, $245 million in antimony from a U.S. antimony company, $100 million in tantalum from an undisclosed U.S. company, and a total of $45 million in scandium from Rio Tinto and APL Engineering Materials, exceeding conventional market scales. Analysts believe that Western governments' reserves of key minerals are still in very early stages, but they are increasingly focusing on this issue.

• JP Morgan announces a $1.5 trillion U.S. investment plan over ten years. The plan includes up to $10 billion in direct equity investments across 27 sub-sectors in four major areas: supply chain manufacturing, defense aviation, energy technology, and cutting-edge technology, including quantum computing. Following the announcement, quantum computing concept stocks surged, with Rigetti rising 25% and D-Wave rising 23% Goldman Sachs Trader: Last Friday's US Stock Performance Was More Like "Protection" Than "Exit". Goldman Sachs trader Lee Coppersmith believes that last Friday, investors primarily managed risks through derivatives tools such as options, rather than large-scale stock sell-offs. Although options trading volume hit a record high, spot stock trading remained relatively calm, with the S&P 500's trading volume only 9% above the average. The market is focused on the trigger points for systemic sell-offs, with CTA strategy long positions nearing their limits. Investor sentiment remains resilient, with two major themes—AI development and labor market concerns—continuing to take center stage in the upcoming earnings season.

Morgan Stanley's Wilson Warns: If Trade Conflict Is Not Resolved Before November, S&P 500 Could Fall to 5800 Points. Wilson warns that if trade tensions are not resolved before November, US stocks face an 8% to 11% downside risk, with the S&P 500 index potentially falling to 5800-6027 points. Last Friday, the escalation of trade tensions exceeded expectations, combined with high valuations and investor exposure, putting pressure on the market for a correction.

Wall Street May Face Its Most Turbulent Earnings Season in Years! Options data for S&P 500 constituents show that investors expect an average price volatility of 4.7% following earnings releases, close to the highest level since July when the earnings season began in 2022. AI and tech stocks are the focus of volatility, with individual stock skewness being flatter than the index, as traders are more inclined to chase the gains of specific companies, especially AI-related stocks.

India's September CPI Year-on-Year Growth Rate Hits a New Low of 1.54%, down from 2.07% in August, marking the slowest growth rate in eight years. The slowdown in inflation is mainly attributed to monsoon rains lowering food prices and the implementation of a consumption tax reform in September. Weak inflation has also strengthened market expectations for the Reserve Bank of India to cut interest rates in December.

Overseas Companies

India's First AI Center: Google to Invest $10 Billion to Build 1GW Data Center. Google will sign a contract with Andhra Pradesh this week to establish a data center park, creating India's first AI center. Official estimates suggest that the project is expected to contribute an average of 10.518 billion rupees to the state's GDP annually from 2028 to 2032 and support the creation of over 188,000 jobs each year. It is seen as the "largest single investment" since India's financial reforms and a significant milestone in the country's digital infrastructure development.

Fuel Cells Become the New Favorite for AI Power Supply? Bloom Energy and Brookfield Reach $5 Billion Data Center Power Supply Project Asset management giant Brookfield will invest up to $5 billion in partnership with Bloom Energy to deploy on-site fuel cell power generation technology for AI data centers constrained by electricity. This move aims to bypass the bottlenecks of an aging grid and is expected to meet the challenge of a 10-gigawatt power demand driven by the expansion of AI computing power. Bloom Energy's stock price surged over 30% in pre-market trading, closing up more than 26%.

Success or failure hinges on this: Intel's $32 billion bet on 18A process. Intel has invested $32 billion in a new factory in Arizona that has begun production, attempting to regain leadership in advanced manufacturing with the 18A process. The success or failure of this bet will be determined in the next 6-8 months by test results from key customers such as Apple, Nvidia, and Qualcomm. Intel's stock price has risen over 46% in a month.

Is the Vision Air project dead? Apple reportedly shifts focus to smart glasses, competing with Meta for the affordable market. Faced with disappointing market performance of the $3,500 Vision Pro, Apple may make significant adjustments to its wearable device strategy. The company is reported to have shelved the more affordable headset project—"Vision Air"—and is instead concentrating resources on developing smart glasses with greater mass market potential, which could lead to direct competition with Meta in this field.

Today's News Preview

U.S. appeals court rules that U.S. tariffs are illegal; these tariff measures can remain in place until October 14 for the U.S. government to appeal.

U.S. President Trump meets with Argentine President Milei.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman, Federal Reserve Governor Waller, and Boston Fed President Collins will speak.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo will visit the United States from October 14 to 19.

2025 IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in the fall.

Germany's September CPI.

Oracle AI World Conference.

IEA releases monthly crude oil market report.