At a sensitive moment, Powell will make an appearance tonight, marking his first remarks after the Federal Reserve's decision

At a sensitive moment of severe turbulence in the global market, Jerome Powell will deliver a speech at the National Association for Business Economics in Philadelphia at 23:30 Beijing time tonight. This will be his first public appearance since last month's FOMC meeting, and investors will closely monitor his statements for clues about the direction of interest rate policy.

In the September meeting, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, a decision that was nearly unanimous, with only new board member Stephen Miran dissenting, advocating for a 50 basis point cut.

However, the economic forecasts from Federal Reserve officials present a different picture: policymakers are almost evenly split, with one faction believing that further rate cuts are needed this year, while the other faction argues that the current policy stance is already sufficiently accommodative. This internal division increases the uncertainty surrounding future policy paths.

This speech also faces challenges due to data gaps caused by the government shutdown. The government shutdown, which began on October 1, has led to the suspension of key employment and inflation reports, depriving the Federal Reserve of important policy guidance. Investors are eager for Powell to explain how the Federal Reserve will formulate policy in the absence of critical data.

Policy Signals at a Critical Moment

The Federal Reserve's dual mandate requires it to pursue maximum employment and price stability, but it currently faces competing concerns. Signs of a cooling labor market indicate potential vulnerabilities in employment, while inflation has stubbornly remained above the central bank's 2% target for nearly five years. This complicates the rationale for aggressive rate cuts.

If Powell focuses on the labor market, investors will interpret this as leaving room for one or two more rate cuts before the end of the year. If he tends to emphasize the persistence of inflation, it would imply a higher threshold for further easing and suggest that the Federal Reserve may pause rate cuts at the policy meeting on October 28-29.

The timing of this speech is particularly special, as there is a lack of new economic data, and the Federal Reserve will enter a pre-meeting blackout period this weekend. According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors currently believe there is a 97% probability of another rate cut at the October meeting.

Powell attempted to maintain a neutral stance at the post-meeting press conference, emphasizing that future decisions will depend on upcoming data. However, with the government shutdown leading to critical data gaps, this statement has become increasingly difficult to uphold. The market will carefully interpret his remarks, looking for any hints about which aspect of the dual mandate he is more concerned about