KaiYuan Securities: Figure03 Shockingly Released, Humanoid Robot Sector Welcomes "Ignition Moment"

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Kaiyuan Securities has released a research report stating that Figure has launched the next-generation humanoid robot Figure03, which is the first model designed for mass production from the source. Figure currently adopts a "self-research + external support" supply chain model and has established long-term cooperative relationships with several domestic manufacturers. With a focus on mass production, Figure's technical path and part of the supply chain will converge with leading robots like Tesla, potentially deepening reliance on China's hardware supply chain. Suppliers with engineering mass production capabilities, cost control advantages, and global production capacity layout capabilities are expected to benefit significantly.

Recommended targets: (1) Dexterous hands: Zhenyu TECH (300953.SZ); (2) Visual tactile sensors: LSKJ (300680.SZ); Beneficiary targets: (1) Modules and structural components: Lingyi Zhi Zao (002600.SZ), Changying Precision (300115.SZ), Lens Technology (300433.SZ), Yinlun Co., Ltd. (002126.SZ); (2) Dexterous hands: Dongmu Co., Ltd. (600114.SH); (3) Surface coating materials: Henghui Security (300952.SZ).

Key points from Kaiyuan Securities are as follows:

Figure03's stunning release, the "burning moment" for humanoid robots

Figure has launched the next-generation humanoid robot Figure03, which is the first model designed for mass production from the source. Figure03 extends the design focus to home scenarios for the first time, using soft fabric covering and lightweight structures to enhance safety and comfort in human-robot coexistence; the dexterous hands integrate visual tactile sensors, enabling stable operation in environments with limited visibility, such as cabinets and shelves; it supports wireless charging at the foot, achieving nearly seamless autonomous endurance, and can perform complex household tasks such as folding shirts and cleaning tables.

Since its establishment in May 2022, Figure has achieved leaps in technology iteration, ecosystem construction, and valuation surge within three years: in terms of technology iteration, the first-generation machine design was completed within 12 months, and the industrial version Figure02 was launched within 24 months; in February 2025, the self-researched large model Helix will be released, and in October of the same year, the mass production-oriented Figure03 will be launched. In terms of ecosystem cooperation, tests in factory scenarios have been conducted with BMW, and a partnership with Brookfield aims to build the world's largest humanoid robot dataset, leveraging Brookfield to collect real data from over 100,000 households to improve the "scenario-data" closed loop.

On the capital side, the C round valuation is expected to reach $39 billion in 2025, with investors including tech giants like NVIDIA, Intel, Qualcomm, Microsoft, and Amazon. Referring to the valuation logic of the overseas humanoid robot market, the firm believes that the sector is gradually forming a new valuation system. According to Figure's plan to ship over 100,000 units within four years, corresponding to a valuation of nearly $40 billion, Tesla's trillion-dollar compensation plan includes a target delivery of 1 million Optimus robots, which is expected to bring about $500 billion in new market value. Based on a unit valuation density of $400,000 to $500,000 per unit, if domestic leading robots like Yushu and Zhiyuan are capitalized and achieve shipments of 100,000 units within the next three years, there is potential for a market value space of 300 billion RMB Building a Software-Hardware Collaborative System Centered on Helix

The hardware architecture of Figure03 is tailor-made for Helix, maximizing its integrated learning and control capabilities in vision, language, and motion. Helix, as the brain of the robot, achieves end-to-end reasoning from visual perception to action control, expanding from automotive factories to logistics sorting and household chores in less than a year, demonstrating rapid generalization ability and environmental adaptability.

On the hardware level, Figure03 has made the following key upgrades: (1) Dexterous Hand with Visual-Tactile Feedback: A camera is integrated into the palm, allowing for close-range image acquisition even when the main vision is obstructed; the self-developed flexible fingertip sensors can detect 3 grams of pressure, enabling stable grasping of thin, fragile, and irregular objects, adapting to complex targets such as tableware, soft packaging, and sheet metal. This firm believes that a dexterous hand capable of performing fine and complex operations is core, and the visual-tactile solution is a common choice for FIGURE and Tesla.

(2) Foot-Based Wireless Charging: The soles support 2kW wireless charging, automatically charging when both feet step onto the charging base, eliminating the need for external plug-in interfaces. Coupled with 10Gbps millimeter-wave data return, it removes manual plug-in interventions, achieving continuous operation of "charging while learning," while the integrated design reduces weight and complexity, enhancing overall endurance and reliability.

(3) Mass Production Orientation: Figure03 is the first humanoid robot designed with mass production in mind from the source. The production process shifts from high-cost CNC machining to mold-based processes such as die-casting, injection molding, and stamping. The self-built BotQ intelligent factory plans to have its first production line with an annual capacity of 12,000 units, aiming for a total capacity of 100,000 units within four years, overcoming the final hurdle for commercialization.

Deep Integration of Domestic Supply Chain into Figure's Mass Production Chain

Figure currently adopts a "self-research + external support" supply chain model, with key modules such as actuators, batteries, and sensors designed independently and vertically integrated, while establishing a supporting network with high-quality global component manufacturers to support the company's expansion goals, and has formed long-term partnerships with several domestic manufacturers. This firm believes that with a mass production orientation, Figure's technological path and part of the supply chain will converge with leading robots like Tesla, and the degree of reliance on China's hardware supply chain may deepen, benefiting suppliers with engineering mass production capabilities, cost control advantages, and global production capacity layout capabilities.

Risk Warning:

Robot mass production may fall short of expectations; supply chain development may not meet expectations