CPI delayed, non-farm payrolls missing, will the Federal Reserve rely on "wild paths" to set interest rates this month?

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, the U.S. government shutdown is placing policymakers in a "blind" dilemma at a critical moment for the U.S. economy. Currently, Federal Reserve officials are facing a key juncture for interest rate decisions at the end of October—whether to continue cutting rates or to maintain rates. However, due to government funding shortages, several agencies that release core economic indicators, including the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, have significantly reduced operations, leading to severe delays in key data updates. The Consumer Price Index, originally scheduled for release on October 15, 2025, has been forced to be postponed to October 24, while core indicators reflecting economic performance, such as the monthly employment report and retail sales data, are in a state of "indefinite postponement."

When Federal Reserve officials hold their interest rate meeting from October 28 to 29, they will have to rely more on historical data, existing trends, market rumors, and alternative data provided by the private sector to assess the economic direction. This data vacuum significantly increases the difficulty of policymaking: the absence of official statistics makes it challenging for the Federal Reserve to accurately determine whether inflation has stabilized within the target range and to assess the actual pace of cooling in the labor market.

What is the impact of the government shutdown on the government's collection of economic data?

The impact of the government shutdown on the U.S. government's collection of key economic data is drawing significant market attention, with the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report being the most notable—this is the core basis for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) needs to collect price data for about 80,000 goods primarily through manual collection in three ten-day cycles each month. However, due to the current government shutdown, Morgan Stanley economists estimated on October 10 that the BLS has lost about one-third of the October price data.

Erica Groshen, who served as BLS Commissioner during the 2013 government shutdown, pointed out that although the agency can partially compensate for losses through overtime or by using "estimation methods" (filling in missing prices with similar available data), the quality of the data will continue to decline over time. Omar Sharif, president of Inflation Insights LLC, warned in an interview on October 9: "From now on, data accuracy will deteriorate, and by the third week, we may receive data of very low quality—or even completely missing."

As an important inflation indicator released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will also be affected by the government shutdown, as it uses CPI pricing data as one of its input sources. In contrast, the extent of damage to other government data is considered relatively controllable. For example, the BLS monthly employment report relies on two independent surveys: the employer survey from businesses and government agencies to estimate new jobs created, and the household survey to provide unemployment rate data.

Morgan Stanley's analysis shows that employer agencies typically retain their employment data, so payroll estimates are less affected by delays; while the household survey is affected by delays, the response rate remained normal during similar situations in 2013. As for the retail sales data compiled by the Census Bureau, due to its submission characteristics via mail and online, this data may be "unaffected" by the government shutdown directly

What historical precedents exist?

This government shutdown event is the 15th shutdown the U.S. federal government has experienced since 1981, with each shutdown causing various federal agencies to suspend operations due to funding shortfalls. Including the current shutdown, at least four government shutdowns have previously resulted in delays in the release of important economic reports.

Specifically, during the 21-day shutdown from December 1995 to January 1996, the employment report originally scheduled for release in December was forced to be postponed by two weeks. According to then-Bureau of Labor Statistics Director Katherine Abraham, the shutdown led to a decrease in the contact rate for household surveys, interrupting data collection work; however, after assessment by the agency, it was determined that such interruptions "did not significantly affect the estimation results."

The employment reports for September and October 2013 were also delayed due to the government shutdown that fall. Other data released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis—including trade data, retail sales, and GDP estimates—were also postponed.

The 35-day shutdown that began in December 2018—the longest in U.S. history to date—resulted in even more severe interruptions to economic data. This shutdown directly led to delays in the release of core economic reports such as retail sales and GDP, with some data, such as initial trade and inventory statistics, even being permanently canceled and ultimately not released.

It is noteworthy that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continued to operate during this period, and its release of employment reports and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data remained unaffected, primarily due to prior funding support that allowed the agency to maintain basic functions during the shutdown.

Are there private data alternatives to U.S. government economic data?

In the absence of government data, economic data provided by the private sector has become an important supplement. For a long time, several private institutions have continuously compiled their own economic indicators, serving as alternative sources to official data during government shutdowns and continuing to supplement official statistics once the government resumes operations. For example, ADP Research releases monthly estimates of private sector employment based on a sample of over 26 million employees, while Indeed provides job vacancy data; the job placement company Challenger, Gray & Christmas regularly publishes layoff announcements, and Revelio Labs independently generates labor market estimates reflecting hiring trends by analyzing over 100 million online job applications.

Wall Street institutions are also involved in this alternative data system—Carlyle Group and Bank of America release labor market update data, providing estimates for wage growth and other indicators; institutions like Goldman Sachs utilize state-level data to estimate unemployment claims.

Although these private indicators differ in data collection methods, coverage, and statistical standards, and cannot fully replace the authority of official reports, they can still help fill the data vacuum left by the government to some extent through multidimensional data cross-validation, providing decision-making references for market participants

What Data Will the Federal Reserve Use to Make Its Next Interest Rate Decision?

The Federal Reserve is facing a dual consideration of a slowing labor market and the inflationary effects of tariffs as it formulates its next interest rate decision. Despite a reduction in available information, decision-makers are still seeking balance through multidimensional data. According to an interview on October 10, 2025, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller acknowledged the indicative value of reports from Carlyle Group and ADP—Carlyle estimated that only 17,000 jobs were added in the U.S. in September, and combining this with other unofficial data sources, Waller emphasized that "although these data are not as comprehensive as government statistics, they all point to a consistent conclusion of a weak labor market."

It is noteworthy that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report before the next Federal Reserve meeting, providing a key inflation reference for policy-making. However, the risk of a government shutdown has significantly impacted data acquisition efficiency—the October CPI report, originally scheduled for release in November, may be delayed due to the shutdown, potentially complicating decision-making.

In this regard, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell clearly warned during a public meeting on October 14 that if October data cannot be collected in a timely manner due to the shutdown, policy-making will face greater challenges.

In addition to official data, the Federal Reserve also references supplementary indicators from the private sector and local governments, including the number of unemployment claims in various states that are not seasonally adjusted and building permit data released by local governments. However, economists at the Royal Bank of Canada pointed out in a research report on October 10 that the decline in data availability will significantly increase the difficulty of the Federal Reserve's work for the remainder of 2025. Particularly within the framework of its responsibilities, the dual pressures of a weak labor market and tariffs on consumer prices make it challenging for policymakers to clearly assess inflation trends, thereby affecting the precision of interest rate decisions