Guangfa Securities: In September, the overall output of pig companies listed maintained growth, focusing on potential catalytic factors in the industry

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guangfa Securities released a research report stating that the effects of the previous industry's capacity expansion are gradually becoming evident. In September, pig prices fluctuated and fell back, and after the National Day, pig prices accelerated their decline. Currently, the national average price has dropped to about 11 yuan/kg, putting the entire industry in a loss zone. The price of piglets is accelerating downward; according to Yongyi Consulting, the current price of 7 kg piglets in large-scale farms has dropped to 183 yuan/head, a decrease of 43.5% compared to early September. Considering that the next 1-2 months will still be a low season for replenishment, it is expected that piglet prices will continue to remain sluggish. In terms of production capacity, the current industry is experiencing overall losses, and coupled with the impact of the "anti-involution" policy, the reduction of pig production capacity is expected to accelerate. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the number of breeding sows in August decreased by 0.1% month-on-month.

Guangfa Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:

Listed Companies' Slaughter Tracking: According to the monthly operating data announcements released by various companies, the overall pig slaughter volume of listed companies increased month-on-month in September 2025; the overall pig slaughter volume in the first three quarters increased by 30.7% year-on-year. In terms of slaughter structure, the demand for piglets has declined during the low season for replenishment, and the overall sales proportion of piglets for listed companies decreased month-on-month in September; in terms of slaughter weight, the overall average sales weight of listed companies increased by 0.7% month-on-month in September.

Slaughter Volume: In September, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs from listed companies was 14.23 million heads, a decrease of 6.3% month-on-month and an increase of 26.3% year-on-year; excluding Muyuan, the total slaughter volume of commercial pigs from listed companies was 8.65 million heads, an increase of 17.6% month-on-month and an increase of 38.8% year-on-year.

In the first three quarters, the total slaughter volume of commercial pigs from listed companies was 142.2 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 30.7%. Among them, in September, Muyuan, WENS, New Hope, and Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry slaughtered 5.573 million heads (excluding piglets), 3.325 million heads, 1.394 million heads, and 840,000 heads respectively, with month-on-month changes of -20.4%, +2.5%, +4.2%, and +3.4%, and year-on-year changes of +10.7%, +32.5%, +16.9%, and +36.4%. In the first three quarters, the cumulative slaughter volume of pigs from Muyuan (including piglets), WENS, New Hope, and Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry increased year-on-year by +37.9%, +28.3%, +0.5%, and +25.8% respectively.

For small and medium-sized breeding enterprises, in September, the slaughter volumes of commercial pigs from TRS, Tiankang Biological, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry increased month-on-month by +1.2%, +1.2%, +37.6%, and +0.8%, and year-on-year by +28.3%, -5.3%, +15.0%, and +42.8%; in the first three quarters, the cumulative slaughter volumes of commercial pigs increased year-on-year by +34.8%, +6.5%, +26.8%, and +63.9% respectively.

Sales Prices: In September, the estimated average sales price of listed companies was 13.0 yuan/kg, a month-on-month decrease of 6.12%.

Slaughter Weight: In September, the estimated average slaughter weight of 11 listed companies was about 114.7 kg/head, a month-on-month increase of 0.7%. Both fat pigs and piglets are in a loss situation, and the reduction of production capacity is expected to accelerate.

Investment Suggestions: Currently, pig farming is in a state of overall loss, with pig prices falling below the cash costs of most enterprises; at the same time, piglet sales are also in a loss situation. Considering the current industry loss status, coupled with the background of the industry's "anti-involution," the curtain on the reduction of pig production capacity has begun, with a focus on industry policies, winter epidemics, and other potential catalytic factors. **

In terms of targets, the current sector valuation is at a relatively low level, with a preference for leading enterprises with cost advantages. Large-scale breeding companies are recommended, including WENS (300498.SZ) and MUYUAN (002714.SZ). Attention should be paid to DeKang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (02419) and New Hope (000876.SZ). For companies with potential operational reversals, focus on Zhengbang Technology (002157.SZ). For small and medium-sized breeding enterprises, it is advisable to pay attention to Tiankang Biological (002100.SZ), Shennong Group (605296.SH), and TRS (002567.SZ), among others.

Risk Warning: Risks of agricultural product price fluctuations, epidemic risks, policy risks, food safety, etc