Open Source Securities: Pig prices fell more than expected, and the destocking of breeding sows may accelerate

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Kaiyuan Securities released a research report stating that, according to Yongyi Consulting, the national average sales price of live pigs in September 2025 is 13.10 yuan/kg, down 4.86% month-on-month and down 30.90% year-on-year. The continuous decline in pig prices has exacerbated losses in pig farming. In October, Yongyi's sample plans to increase the number of pigs to be slaughtered month-on-month, and there is still certain pressure on pig prices in the short term. At the current point, after a significant drop, pig prices may stabilize temporarily, with limited upward and downward fluctuations in the short term. Policies, diseases, and unexpected declines in pig prices may drive the industry to accelerate the reduction of breeding stock. As of October 10, 2025, the price of 7kg piglets in large-scale farms has dropped to 183 yuan/head, down 110 yuan/head year-on-year. Currently, entering the off-season for replenishing piglets in winter, piglet prices have fallen below the industry average cost line of 300 yuan/head, and the dual losses in live pigs and piglets are expected to lead to further reduction in breeding stock.

The main points of Kaiyuan Securities are as follows:

Increased pig slaughter in September leads to a decline in prices, and the pressure on pig companies' slaughter continues in October

According to Yongyi Consulting, the national average sales price of live pigs in September 2025 is 13.10 yuan/kg, down 4.86% month-on-month and down 30.90% year-on-year. Yongyi's monitored sample shows that the slaughter volume in September 2025 is 4.5608 million heads, up 5.12% month-on-month and up 4.05% year-on-year. The completion rate of pig slaughter in September for Yongyi's sample is 96.50%, with a planned increase of 5.14% in October compared to the actual slaughter in September. The continuous decline in pig prices has exacerbated losses in pig farming. In October, Yongyi's sample plans to increase the number of pigs to be slaughtered month-on-month, and there is still certain pressure on pig prices in the short term. At the current point, after a significant drop, pig prices may stabilize temporarily, with limited upward and downward fluctuations in the short term. Policies, diseases, and unexpected declines in pig prices may drive the industry to accelerate the reduction of breeding stock.

The proportion of large pigs being slaughtered has decreased month-on-month, and supply may gradually tighten

As of October 9, 2025, the proportion of pigs over 150kg in Yongyi's sample slaughter structure is 4.91%, down 0.16 percentage points week-on-week and down 0.79 percentage points year-on-year, which is lower than the same period in 2024. From the monthly inventory structure of live pigs in the Mysteel sample, the proportion of heavy pigs over 140kg in the industry remained basically stable month-on-month in September 2025. The previous reduction in weight for slaughter by groups has led to an excess of large pigs in the market, and it is expected that the supply of large pigs will gradually tighten in the future.

Short-term strong supply and weak demand lead to a decline in the price difference of lean meat, and the inventory rate of frozen products is already higher than the same period in 2024

As of October 9, 2025, the price difference of lean meat in Yongyi's monitored sample is 3.97 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan/kg compared to the same period in August and down 1.01 yuan/kg year-on-year. The national frozen product storage rate is 19.14%, up 3.07 percentage points year-on-year, and the accumulation of frozen products may marginally weaken the support for pig prices.

In September, pig farming profits turned from profit to loss, and Yongyi's sample industry breeding stock decreased by 0.46% month-on-month

Affected by the decline in pig prices, the industry experienced an average loss of 7.27 yuan per head in self-breeding and self-raising in September, with losses deepening as October approached. Yongyi's sample shows a month-on-month decrease of 0.46% in breeding stock in September 2025. As of October 10, 2025, the price of 7kg piglets in large-scale farms has dropped to 183 yuan/head, down 110 yuan/head year-on-year. Currently, entering the off-season for replenishing piglets in winter, piglet prices have fallen below the industry average cost line of 300 yuan/head, and the dual losses in live pigs and piglets are expected to lead to further reduction in breeding stock Companies: The average price of live pigs for listed pig companies in September fell month-on-month

As of October 14, 2025, 12 listed pig companies released their September live pig sales data, with a total of 13.7749 million live pigs sold in September, a year-on-year increase of 22.47%. The slaughter volumes for MuYuan, WENS, New Hope, ZhengBang Technology, TianBang Food, DBN Group, COFCO Joycome, TianKang Biological, TangRenShen, JinXinNong, KINGKEY SMART AGRI, and Shennong Group in September were 557.30, 332.53, 139.42, 79.07, 61.27, 37.37, 46.80, 26.69, 41.09, 11.00, 22.05, and 22.90 thousand heads, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +11%, +32.5%, +16.9%, +107.6%, +40.4%, +33.1%, +53.4%, -5.3%, +28.3%, +17.1%, -3.3%, and +15%.

In terms of average slaughter weight, DBN Group's average slaughter weight for commercial pigs in September was 128.9 kg/head, an increase of 2.0 kg/head month-on-month

In terms of sales price, the average sales price of the main 10 listed pig companies fell month-on-month. The average sales prices for MuYuan, WENS, New Hope, ZhengBang Technology, TianBang Food, DBN Group, COFCO Joycome, TianKang Biological, KINGKEY SMART AGRI, and Shennong Group in September were 12.88, 13.18, 12.89, 12.75, 12.80, 12.91, 12.93, 12.17, 13.60, and 12.82 yuan/kg, respectively, with month-on-month changes of -4.7%, -5.2%, -4.8%, -7.3%, -6.6%, -5.6%, -3.4%, -4.8%, -9%, and -7.6%.

Risk Warning

Abnormal fluctuations in pig prices, uncertainty of diseases, and the decline in breeding costs of listed companies not meeting expectations