"Super Week" is coming with a bang! Tech giants like Tesla are delivering explosive performances, and the US CPI is the grand finale

According to Zhitong Finance APP, influenced by China-U.S. trade relations, the U.S. stock market is about to enter the third week of government shutdown after experiencing five consecutive days of volatility. As of last Friday's close, the S&P 500 index, the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average all recorded gains, marking the end of a turbulent week. During this period, major stock indices exhibited daily fluctuations, with market sentiment continuously affected by a mix of bullish and bearish factors.

In the coming week, investors will assess the economic situation through key economic data. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), originally scheduled for release on October 15, has been postponed to this Friday (October 24) due to the government shutdown, making it the last important economic data before the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on October 28-29.

The market generally expects the report to show a continued upward trend in prices, but the increase is expected to be narrower than in August. The data performance will directly impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision—officials have previously indicated that their focus has shifted to the weak labor market, but if inflation rises unexpectedly, it may force an adjustment in policy direction.

Due to the ongoing government shutdown, the release of several economic data points faces uncertainty, including indicators such as import prices, retail sales, and unemployment claims, which may disappear from the schedule. Although new home sales data may be delayed, the market is still focused on the National Association of Realtors' September existing home sales data to capture signals of a housing market recovery. Additionally, the October Consumer Confidence Index and the latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data will also be released this week, further outlining the economic landscape.

The U.S. corporate earnings season enters a busy disclosure period this week. Following the strong and better-than-expected performance reported by Wall Street banks, the "tech giants' earnings disclosure season" is set to kick off this week, with well-known companies such as Tesla (TSLA.US), Intel (INTC.US), streaming leader Netflix (NFLX.US), and consumer benchmark Coca Cola (KO.US) set to release their third-quarter earnings.

Tesla is scheduled to disclose its earnings on Wednesday, having previously seen strong delivery numbers boosted by the impending electric vehicle tax credit policy. Ford (F.US) and General Motors (GM.US) will also release their earnings during the same week, likely benefiting from policy incentives, although both automakers have scaled back their electric vehicle plans. Musk may take this opportunity to reveal details about Tesla's progress in autonomous taxi services, Optimus robots, and the expansion of autonomous driving technology.

Intel will release its earnings on Thursday, having significantly boosted its stock price through a series of transactions involving U.S. government investments and partnerships with Nvidia. After recently raising prices and increasing revenue expectations, Netflix's earnings report will validate market reactions. Coca Cola and Procter & Gamble (PG.US) earnings may reveal trends in consumer spending, while HCA Healthcare (HCA.US) earnings could reflect dynamics in the hospital industry. Gold miner Newmont Corporation (NEM.US) will release its earnings on Thursday, coinciding with gold prices reaching new historical highs.

Additionally, defense contractors Northrop Grumman (NOC.US), Lockheed Martin (LMT.US), and telecom operators T-Mobile (TMUS.US), AT& T(T.US) and others will also announce their latest performance this week, providing investors with a diverse industry perspective.

Trump's Policy Fluctuations, Market Risk Aversion Rises

After China introduced a new round of export control measures, restricting the export of products containing trace rare metals, U.S. President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods on the "Truth Social" platform, only to retract that statement shortly after. As a result of this series of actions, the rare earth sector, although one of the biggest winners in the market over the past two weeks, has experienced volatility due to escalating Sino-U.S. trade frictions, with some gains being given back this week.

Days later, Trump again posted on "Truth Social," accusing China of halting purchases of U.S. soybeans, which he claimed constituted "economic hostility," and threatened that the U.S. might stop buying Chinese cooking oil. In response to questions about the trade war, Trump bluntly stated that the U.S. and China "are in a state of trade war." However, last Friday, Trump indicated that the threat of imposing high tariffs on China was "unsustainable," and the frequent shifts in policy signals have made it increasingly difficult for investors to respond.

Compounding the complexity of the supply chain, the White House last Friday officially approved Trump's medium and heavy truck tariff plan announced on October 6 on "Truth Social"—starting November 1, 2025, all medium and heavy trucks imported into the U.S. will face a 25% tariff, including an exemption clause for auto parts that truck manufacturers like PACCAR (PCAR.US) strongly oppose.

The new tariffs will take effect on November 1, covering all overseas manufactured vehicles from vans to the largest trucks, with a maximum tax rate of 25%; simultaneously, foreign-manufactured buses will also be subject to a 10% tariff.

Market risk aversion continues to rise, with gold prices increasing for the ninth consecutive week, trading at approximately $4,240 per troy ounce, and there are no signs of a slowdown in the short term. Analysts at JP Morgan pointed out in a recent report that if 0.5% of U.S. assets held by foreign investors were to shift to gold, the price of gold could soar to $6,000, highlighting the hedging value of hard assets amid trade frictions.

Global Oil Supply Surplus Expectations Heat Up

On October 10, analysts at Macquarie Bank noted in a report that the oil market "remains in a range-bound state, exhibiting structural spot premium characteristics, while crude oil prices have not fully reflected the market's widespread expectations of a large supply surplus." However, just over a week later, signs of a shift in this situation have begun to emerge, prompting the market to closely monitor the performance data of energy giants such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, EQT, and Halliburton, which will be disclosed soon.

As of last Friday, crude oil prices have declined for the third consecutive week, with global benchmark Brent crude futures falling about 2.3%, and U.S. WTI crude futures down 2.8%.

This round of oil price declines is driven by multiple factors. The most critical factor is the continued increase in production targets by the OPEC+ organization, led by Saudi Arabia—at the beginning of this month, the organization agreed to raise daily production by 137,000 barrels in November, with member countries, especially Saudi Arabia, attempting to regain market share through increased production. Meanwhile, monitoring data from offshore tankers shows that the current oil load stored on tankers has exceeded 1 billion barrels, reaching the highest level since the pandemic caused oil to be stranded at sea in 2020, further exacerbating expectations of a supply surplus The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has also put pressure on oil prices. The temporary peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas, facilitated by the Trump administration, has come into effect, which includes prisoner exchange terms. If the regional situation remains stable, Iran may restart its production increase plans, leading to further increases in market supply.

The latest forecast released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) last Tuesday shows that the global oil surplus is expected to expand to 4 million barrels per day by 2026, a significant upward revision from the previous estimate of 3.3 million barrels per day. This increase is equivalent to nearly 4% of global total demand, representing another blow to oil prices.

Regarding why oil prices have not seen a more significant decline, analysts explain that China's accumulated excess inventory for the year far exceeds domestic demand, which previously provided strong support for oil prices. However, the pace of crude oil purchases in Beijing has noticeably slowed recently. From the perspective of the futures market structure, two weeks ago, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures contracts exhibited a positive price spread phenomenon—near-month contract prices were lower than the 2026 annual contract prices, indicating that traders have begun to anticipate future supply surpluses.

The U.S. crude oil inventory data released last Wednesday further confirmed this trend: as of the week ending October 10, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels per day, slightly lower than the previous week's increase of 3.7 million barrels per day, but still at a high level.

The latest forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that the average price of WTI crude oil will drop to $52 per barrel by 2026, well below the generally accepted healthy breakeven range of $60-62 for the oil industry.

Bank of America analysts emphasized in their report: "For the past year, market participants have consistently worried about the issue of crude oil supply surplus. Now, the long-anticipated supply surplus is finally beginning to manifest at the price level."