Breakfast FM-Radio | October 21, 2025

Market Overview

Trade tensions have eased, U.S. stocks have risen for two consecutive days, with all three major U.S. indices up over 1%; Apple rose nearly 4%, reaching a historic high for the first time this year, while NVIDIA fell 0.3%, the only decliner among the seven tech giants; the chip index rebounded over 1%, with AMD rising over 3%; Oracle fell nearly 5%, declining for two consecutive days; the U.S. and Australia reached a cooperation project agreement, key mineral stocks surged, with NioCorp Developments rising nearly 20% and USA Rare Earth rising nearly 14%; Chinese concept stocks rebounded, outperforming the market, with the Chinese concept index up over 2% and Alibaba rising nearly 4%.

Gold and silver, which plunged during trading last Friday, rebounded. Gold set a new intraday historical high for six consecutive days, with futures nearing $4,400, up over 4%; silver rebounded, with futures rising over 3%. Crude oil fell back, failing to break away from a five-month low, with U.S. oil dropping over 2% during trading before recovering most of the losses.

The yield on the ten-year U.S. Treasury bond fell, approaching a six-month low. The U.S. dollar index rose for two consecutive days, continuing to recover from a week-long low; Bitcoin rose over 3% during trading, surpassing $111,000.

During the Asian session, the A-share ChiNext index rose nearly 2%, with total trading volume in the two markets reaching 1.75 trillion yuan, AI computing power rebounded, with "Yi Zhongtian" soaring; the Hong Kong Hang Seng Technology Index rose 3%, while government bonds generally fell, and "double 焦" futures strengthened. The Nikkei 225 index rose over 3%, standing above 49,000 points for the first time in history.

Key News

The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has begun in Beijing.

China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, with a growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters. The National Bureau of Statistics stated that the growth in the first three quarters has laid a solid foundation for achieving the main annual goals. China's total retail sales of consumer goods in September grew by 3% year-on-year, slowing from August, while the year-on-year growth of industrial added value above designated size accelerated to 6.5% in September. From January to September, national fixed asset investment fell by 0.5% year-on-year, and national real estate development investment fell by 13.9% year-on-year; in September, housing prices in 70 cities fell month-on-month, with second- and third-tier cities seeing declines of 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively.

China's LPR quotes have remained unchanged for five consecutive months: the 5-year LPR is 3.5%, and the 1-year LPR is 3%.

The U.S. side stated that rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans are the three major issues in U.S.-China economic and trade consultations, with China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responding; according to China News Service, customs data shows that China did not import soybeans from the U.S. in September.

White House economic advisor Hassett: The U.S. government shutdown "may end sometime this week."

The Australian Prime Minister visited the White House to deliver a "gift package," signing an $8.5 billion key mineral project agreement with Trump, and also purchasing military equipment; the White House stated that within the next six months, U.S.-Australia investments in key mineral projects will exceed $3 billion, and the U.S. Department of Defense will assist in funding the construction of a gallium refining plant in Western Australia with an annual output of 100 tons The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan and the Japan Innovation Party signed a joint governance document, Sanae Takaichi is highly likely to become the Prime Minister of Japan and form a cabinet**; the Nikkei 225 index rose more than 3%, closing above 49,000 points for the first time in history.

Vietnam again exploded with "trillions" in real estate; the stock market plummeted over 5%, marking the largest single-day decline in six months.

Yuzhu released the H2 humanoid robot: standing 180cm tall, capable of ballet dancing, with a freedom of movement increased to 31.

Tmall's Double 11 saw 80 brands surpass 100 million in sales in the first hour, with iPhone series sales exceeding the total for the previous year.

CATL's Q3 revenue increased by 12.9% year-on-year, with net profit up 41.21% to 18.5 billion yuan.

Apple's stock price reached a historic high for the first time this year, surpassing Microsoft to become the second largest in U.S. stocks; institutions stated that iPhone 17 sales in the first 10 days of pre-sale in China and the U.S. were 14% higher than the same period for the previous generation.

Amazon AWS services experienced a massive outage, with thousands of users reporting errors, affecting both Coinbase and Robinhood.

Market Closing Report

U.S. and European Stock Markets: The S&P 500 rose 1.07%, closing at 6735.13 points. The Dow Jones increased by 1.12%, closing at 46706.58 points. The Nasdaq rose 1.37%, closing at 22990.543 points. The European STOXX 600 index rose 1.03%, closing at 572.10 points.

A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.63%, closing at 3863.89 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.98%, closing at 12813.21 points; the ChiNext Index rose 1.98%, closing at 2993.45 points.

Bond Market: By the end of the bond market, the yield on the U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury bond was about 3.98%, down about 3 basis points during the day; the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond was about 3.46%, unchanged from last Friday.

Commodities: WTI November crude oil futures fell 0.03%, closing at $57.52 per barrel; Brent December crude oil futures fell 0.46%, closing at $61.01 per barrel. COMEX December gold futures rose 3.47%, closing at $4359.4 per ounce. COMEX December silver futures rose 2.55%, closing at $51.384 per ounce.

News Details

Global Highlights

The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has begun in Beijing. The General Secretary of the Central Committee delivered a work report on behalf of the Political Bureau to the plenary session and discussed the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (Draft for Discussion)." The explanation was made to the plenary session.

China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, with a growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters. The spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics stated that the year-on-year GDP growth rate in the third quarter fell by 0.4 percentage points compared to the second quarter. This is mainly the result of the complex and severe external environment and significant pressure from domestic structural adjustments. Internationally, the growth of international trade and economy is unstable and uncertain; domestically, some long-standing structural issues need to be resolved.

• The spokesperson of the statistics bureau stated: “Looking ahead, we must recognize that economic development still faces many risks and challenges, but we must also see that the internal logic of stable economic development in our country has not changed, and the supporting conditions for stable economic operation have not changed, there are still many favorable conditions to achieve the annual expected goals.” The economic growth in the first three quarters of this year was 0.4 percentage points faster than the same period last year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the main goals for the year. In terms of development momentum, new productive forces represented by artificial intelligence are accelerating their transformation into real productive forces, and China's economy is gearing up with new growth engines.
• China's total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3% year-on-year in September, compared to a growth of 3.4% in August, and the catering revenue of units above the designated size in September declined by 1.6%, while it was a year-on-year growth of 1% in August. Yu Jianxun, director of the Trade and Foreign Economic Statistics Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that the slowdown in the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods in September was affected by factors such as the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday being in a different month; driven by a series of policy measures to expand service consumption, the demand for service consumption has accelerated, effectively boosting the growth of the consumer market; various regions and departments have deeply implemented the policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones, leading to rapid growth in the retail of related goods.
• China's industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.5% year-on-year in September, with an acceleration of 1.3 percentage points compared to August, and the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries showed good growth. From January to September, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.2% year-on-year, among which the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size grew by 9.6% year-on-year, with the production of industrial robots, service robots, and train sets increasing by 29.8%, 16.3%, and 8.6% respectively.
• China's national fixed asset investment from January to September decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment growing by 4.0%. Private fixed asset investment decreased by 3.1% year-on-year. Fixed asset investment in September decreased by 0.07% month-on-month.
• China's national real estate development investment from January to September decreased by 13.9% year-on-year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 5.5% year-on-year By the end of September, the area of unsold commercial housing was 75.928 million square meters, a decrease of 2.41 million square meters month-on-month, marking a continuous decline for seven months, indicating ongoing relief in industry inventory pressure. The decline in the area of new housing starts and completed housing in the first nine months has narrowed compared to January to August.
• Guangfa Macro believes that one of the highlights of the third-quarter economic data is that the economy in the first three quarters has laid a good foundation for achieving the annual target, and the quarterly growth rate in the third quarter also met expectations; secondly, the industrial capacity utilization rate has improved month-on-month, especially in several key industries; thirdly, the month-on-month rebound in industrial production in September was significant, providing strong support for economic data. However, data shortcomings are also worth noting: first, the quarterly growth rate of household consumption expenditure has significantly slowed; second, the real estate volume and price have not yet stabilized; third, the decline in fixed asset investment has further widened.

China's October LPR quotation remains unchanged: The LPR for over 5 years is 3.5%, and the 1-year LPR is 3%. China's Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month.

China's September 70-city housing prices: The sales prices of commercial residential properties in various cities declined month-on-month, with second- and third-tier cities seeing month-on-month declines of 0.7% and 0.6% in second-hand housing. The month-on-month decline in second-hand housing has slightly widened, with second- and third-tier cities' second-hand residential sales prices decreasing by 0.1 percentage points. In terms of new housing, the month-on-month decline in various cities has widened, while the year-on-year decline continues to narrow.

The U.S. side claims to list rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues in China-U.S. economic and trade consultations, with a response from China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. According to Global Times, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiaqin stated that China's position on handling China-U.S. economic and trade issues is consistent and clear, and that the tariff war and trade war do not serve the interests of either side; both parties should negotiate to resolve relevant issues on the basis of equality, respect, and mutual benefit.

• According to China News Network, data from the General Administration of Customs shows that China did not import soybeans from the U.S. in September this year. This marks the first time since November 2018 that China's monthly soybean imports from the U.S. have dropped to zero. Against the backdrop of tariffs, this year's soybean harvest season for U.S. farmers has seen the absence of "Chinese orders." Meanwhile, as the world's largest soybean importer, China is increasing its purchases of soybeans from South American countries to replace U.S. soybeans.

White House economic advisor Hassett: The U.S. government shutdown "may end sometime this week". White House Chief Economic Advisor Hassett attributed the government shutdown to Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer He stated that if the shutdown continues, the White House will consider implementing "stronger measures," although he did not specify what these measures might include.

Australian Prime Minister visits the White House to deliver a "gift package," signing an $8.5 billion critical minerals project agreement with Trump, and also purchasing military equipment. The White House stated that the two countries will invest over $3 billion in critical minerals projects within the next six months; the U.S. Department of Defense will help fund the construction of a high-end gallium refining plant in Western Australia with an annual output of 100 tons; Australia will purchase underwater drones and Apache helicopters from the U.S. Trump has requested that Australia increase its defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, but Australia has not yet agreed. Trump also stated that it is unlikely to provide tariff reductions for Australia.

Japan's Liberal Democratic Party signs a coalition governance document with the Japan Innovation Party. Sanae Takaichi is expected to receive support from the Japan Innovation Party in the prime ministerial election scheduled for Tuesday, October 21, and is highly likely to become the Prime Minister of Japan and form a cabinet.

• Nikkei 225 index rises over 3%, closing above 49,000 points for the first time in history.

Vietnam experiences another "trillion-dollar" real estate crisis, stock market plunges over 5%, marking the largest single-day drop in six months. A government oversight report released last Friday revealed serious issues of fund misappropriation and information disclosure violations among large commercial banks and real estate companies in corporate bond issuance, involving trillions of Vietnamese dong. Among them, the second-largest real estate developer, Novaland, was accused of misappropriating over 15 trillion Vietnamese dong, with several affiliated companies facing overdue principal and interest. The case has been handed over to the local Public Security Ministry.

Unitree releases H2 humanoid robot: 180 cm tall, can dance ballet, with freedom of movement increased to 31 degrees. Unitree has recently released the 180 cm tall Unitree H2 humanoid robot. This robot has 31 degrees of freedom, is agile and graceful, and can smoothly perform complex movements such as ballet and martial arts, demonstrating excellent balance and control capabilities. Analysts believe that Unitree is deepening its "full-size, full-scenario, full-price" strategy, accelerating product segmentation, and capturing market share.

Tmall Double 11 sales in the first hour exceed 1 billion for 80 brands, iPhone series sales surpass last year's entire day. At 8 PM on October 20, the 2025 Tmall Double 11 officially went on sale. In the first hour of sales, 30,516 brands saw their sales double, all exceeding last year's first day of sales. Products such as AirPods 4, Apple Watch S11, iQOO15, Nintendo Switch, and Xiaomi 17 ProMax each surpassed 10 million in sales in the first hour CATL Q3 revenue increased by 12.9% year-on-year, net profit rose by 41.21% to 18.5 billion yuan.

Apple's stock price hits a historic high for the first time this year. Apple rose nearly 4% on Monday, surpassing Microsoft in market value, becoming the second highest market value company in the U.S. after Nvidia. Research firm Counterpoint stated that in the first 10 days of sales in Apple's two major markets, China and the U.S., the iPhone 17 series saw 14% higher sales than the iPhone 16 series during the same period, with the base model selling well in China and strong demand for the Pro Max in the U.S. Loop Capital raised Apple's target price to $315, the highest expectation level among Wall Street firms, indicating that Apple's stock price could rise about 20% from Monday's closing price.

• Apple makes a comeback, new iPhone ignites the strongest upgrade wave in recent years. The iPhone 17, with significant upgrades in camera, screen, and battery, is driving Apple to achieve the strongest smartphone sales growth since the pandemic, exceeding Wall Street's expectations. Data shows that delivery times are 13% longer than in previous years, with long queues at stores. Analysts predict that iPhone revenue will reach $218.9 billion in fiscal year 2026, with growth accelerating to nearly 5%, reversing the previous two years of decline or stagnation.

Amazon AWS services experience massive outages, thousands of users report errors, Coinbase and Robinhood are affected. As the world's largest cloud service provider, AWS supports much of the internet's infrastructure, holding about one-third of the market share. Cryptocurrency trading platform Coinbase, retail investment app Robinhood, and AI search company Perplexity all reported service disruptions, with the impact potentially extending to gaming and enterprise communications.

Domestic Macro

Former Vice Minister of Finance Zhu Guangyao: China's economic growth rate is expected to maintain 4.5% to 5% in the coming years, with renewable energy, artificial intelligence, and other fields becoming important driving forces.

Shenzhen's second-hand housing weekly transaction volume hits a nearly six-month high.

148,500 yuan/square meter, Shanghai Xuhui Binjiang transaction floor price sets a new high Chinese concept technology stock ETF CQQQ attracted hundreds of millions of dollars in a single week. Last week, American investors poured $333 million into the Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ), marking the second-highest record for the fund. This ETF has attracted inflows for eight consecutive weeks, the longest streak since March 2021.

Domestic Companies

China Mobile's third-quarter revenue increased by 2.5% year-on-year, with AI direct revenue achieving rapid growth.

iFlytek's third-quarter net profit reached 170 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 202.40%, leading the industry in large model orders.

DeepSeek team open-sources new model DeepSeek-OCR: a small number of visual tokens complete massive text compression. According to the Hugging Face page, the model has 3 billion parameters.

Alibaba Quark reportedly secretly launched "Plan C": involving conversational AI applications, possibly benchmarking ByteDance's Doubao. Media sources indicate that the first new results of Plan C will be unveiled soon. This plan has been secretly advanced within Quark for a long time, and what is about to surface is only a phased result. "This is a product that requires long-term investment and relies on breakthroughs in model technology."

Cambricon: Issuing 3,334,946 shares to specific targets at a price of 1,195.02 yuan per share.

Report: Hongguo tests short dramas for e-commerce, connecting 200 million monthly active users with Douyin e-commerce.

Overseas Macro

"Tension in the air," media reveals details of last Friday's meeting between the US and Ukrainian presidents, Trump urges Zelensky to accept Russian conditions. According to reports, Trump explicitly refused to provide Ukraine with "Tomahawk" missiles and urged Zelensky to accept Russia's peace conditions, including giving up the Donbas region, or Ukraine could be "destroyed." Although the closed-door talks were filled with tension, both Trump and Zelensky publicly stated their support for freezing the current front lines afterward. "They should stop where they are. Let both sides declare victory!"

South Korea: Substantial progress made in tariff negotiations with the United States The highest policy official in South Korea stated that South Korea has reached a broad consensus on many issues in tariff negotiations with the United States. However, there are still differences between the two sides regarding the structure of the $350 billion investment fund, which is the core of the agreement that sets the tariff cap on South Korean goods at 15%.

Vietnam expects GDP growth of 8% this year, with a target of at least 10% next year. Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh told the National Assembly: "The Vietnamese economy has proven strong enough to withstand external shocks and maintain its position as one of the fastest-growing economies in the world." He also pointed out that the Vietnamese economy still faces challenges such as macroeconomic stability pressures, fluctuations in the gold and real estate markets, air pollution, natural disasters, and cybercrime.

BofA's Hartnett: When the U.S. is $38 trillion in debt, should we buy U.S. Treasuries, corporate bonds at a 20-year low spread, 40x CAPE U.S. stocks, or soaring gold? It's tricky. Against the backdrop of global central banks cutting interest rates, mainstream assets all imply risks: U.S. Treasuries are weighed down by massive debt, corporate bond spreads offer weak protection, U.S. stock valuations are high, and gold has surged significantly. Despite numerous risks, the market continues to exhibit a "buy everything" frenzy, with funds pouring into tech stocks and gold. He himself continues to favor a combination of bonds, international markets, and gold.

Overseas Companies

U.S. Antimony plans all-stock acquisition of Australian miner Larvotto to strengthen critical minerals, stock price jumps 16% pre-market. U.S. Antimony Corporation (USAC) has submitted a non-binding all-stock acquisition proposal to Australian miner Larvotto, offering 6 shares of USAC stock for every 100 shares of Larvotto stock. This proposal represents a significant premium for Larvotto shareholders. USAC has acquired approximately 10% of Larvotto's shares, becoming its largest shareholder.

OpenAI "solves" 10 math problems? Hassabis calls it "awkward," LeCun offers sharp commentary. OpenAI has found itself in a promotional controversy, as its researchers claimed that GPT-5 "solved" 10 reward-based math problems, a claim that was immediately debunked by Google DeepMind CEO Hassabis, confirming it was merely a literature retrieval function. This incident has led industry leaders like LeCun to collectively question the ethics of AI promotion, exposing the dilemma tech companies face in balancing technological breakthroughs with market promotion.

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