Guotai Junan Securities: The signal of fundamental bottoming is obvious, pay attention to the upward elasticity of the food and beverage sector

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guosen Securities released a research report stating that as the impact of consumption policies in the second quarter gradually weakens, the demand for the catering supply chain is entering a stage of gradual recovery, and positive signals are also emerging from the supply side, such as frequent mergers and acquisitions by leading companies driving industry concentration; industry competition has not further intensified, and market expenditure is gradually becoming rational. The firm believes that the industry is expected to gradually enter an improvement channel in the future. Historically, the fourth quarter sees concentrated macro policies, and against a backdrop of low fundamental baselines, low expectations in the capital market, and low institutional holdings, any changes on both the supply and demand sides could catalyze stock price increases. Since 2025, policies to expand domestic demand and service consumption have frequently emerged, many of which involve the catering industry, and it is recommended to pay attention to the catering supply chain sector, which is highly sensitive to policies.

Guosen Securities' main points are as follows:

Industry: Bottoming out of fundamentals, valuation levels at low positions

As of October 17, since the beginning of 2025, the condiment index (Shenwan) has fallen by 6.1%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 24.3 percentage points and the food and beverage sector by 3.5 percentage points; the pre-processed food index (Shenwan) has fallen by 6.4%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 24.6 percentage points and the food and beverage sector by 3.8 percentage points. Since August, the food and beverage sector has risen by 3.0% amid market rotation, with the condiment and food and beverage trends being basically consistent, mainly due to large-cap stocks like HAI TIAN resonating with the market; pre-processed foods have fallen by 0.6% amid weak expectations and realities. The trend of bottoming out in the fundamentals of the catering supply chain is evident, with improvements seen in leading companies in the condiment sector, while institutional holdings remain low, and the valuation center is biased downwards.

Key stocks: Actively building momentum, elasticity expected

(1) HAI TIAN: Self-reform across cycles, highlighting leading advantages. (2) BABI FOOD: Dual-driven by stores and group meals, expanding new store types for all-time operational capabilities. (3) Anjoy food: Core operational capabilities are stable, with clear product and channel strategies. (4) Qianwei Central Kitchen: Channel structure optimization, new channel potential expected to become a driving force. (5) Yihai International: Solid foundation with related parties, maintaining a high dividend rate, with clear new growth points.

Risk warning: Risks of catering industry demand recovery falling short of expectations, risks of continued weak consumer power, risks of significant increases in raw material prices, and public opinion risks arising from food safety issues