Guotai Junan Securities: The overall growth of the sports and outdoor sector in Q3 2025 remains strong, with a clear trend of structural polarization

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, GuoXin Securities released a research report stating that the overall growth of online platforms in the sports and outdoor industry accelerated in the third quarter, while prices showed a divergent trend. The prosperity of high-end segments and new IPs coexists with the price reduction competition of classic mass-market models. Only brands that can meet new segmented demands or lead fashion aesthetic trends can achieve both sales and profit growth. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the industry is entering a peak season, with holiday promotions and annual new product launches coexisting, focusing on the impact of brand marketing and product innovation.

Key points from GuoXin Securities are as follows:

Q3 growth rebounds and penetration continues to rise, footwear growth accelerates

According to third-party e-commerce data, in Q3 2025, the sports category saw both volume and price increase (sales +6.8%, sales volume +4.4%, average price +2.6%), while the outdoor category achieved double-digit growth (sales +13.8%, sales volume +9.8%, average price +3.6%); however, the price growth in the sports apparel category mainly came from segmented categories, with a downward trend in the average price of sports leisure clothing and sports shoes. Sales of sports apparel grew in double digits, and the growth rate of sports shoes turned positive, with running shoes accelerating to high double digits while basketball shoes saw an expanded decline. In terms of channels, Douyin accounted for the largest share, Tmall showed outstanding growth, and JD maintained stable growth.

International brands: Nike continues to face adjustment pains, Adidas excels in both footwear and apparel

Nike is experiencing significant adjustment pains, with sales down 12.4% year-on-year and market share decreasing by 1.9 percentage points to 8.7%, with Douyin remaining the largest e-commerce channel; its apparel saw slight growth, while the growth rate of running shoes reached 19.3%, and basketball shoes/board shoes/sports leisure shoes fell by 35%/26%/17%, respectively. Adidas saw a significant sales increase of 13% despite a slight decrease in average price, with market share rising by 0.5 percentage points to 8.1%, benefiting from rapid growth in the Adidas Originals series apparel, double-digit growth in running shoes, and hit retro basketball shoes, while other sports fashion shoes remained stable amid structural changes.

Local brands: Significant price competition pressure, excellent feedback on new products

ANTA's professional matrix for running shoes has shown significant effectiveness, with a narrowing decline in board shoes. Li Ning's market share remains stable, with new products driving average price growth against the trend, running shoes growing over 30%, and basketball shoes returning to double-digit growth. Xtep's market share slightly increased, with running shoes accelerating to 19%, leading in average price among professional matrices, and achieving double-digit growth under a price reduction strategy for apparel. 361 Degrees saw a slight increase in market share, with a high proportion of professional matrices driving double-digit growth in running shoes, while basketball shoes continued to decline deeply, and casual shoes saw a narrowed decline.

Summary of key points: The overall growth potential of the sports and outdoor sector remains superior, with a clear trend of structural polarization

Growth potential comparison: Among sports categories, sports apparel > sports shoes, running shoes > other sports shoes; among major brands in the sports category, Xtep > Adidas > 361 Degrees > Li Ning > ANTA > Nike.

Year-on-year average price change comparison: Sports leisure apparel > running shoes > sports leisure shoes > board shoes > basketball shoes, Li Ning > Adidas > Nike > Xtep > 361 Degrees > ANTA The average price of sportswear and sports shoes has fallen this quarter, reflecting pressure from demand and intensified competition. However, the overall growth of sportswear has outperformed that of sports shoes, thanks to the successful operation of brands like Adidas and the leadership of other high-end apparel brands. In contrast, the prosperity of running shoes in the sports shoe category has been offset by the decline of casual fashion shoes. The differences in brand growth momentum reflect, on one hand, the impact of brand positioning and the structure of segmented categories (e.g., running shoes generally outperform other sports shoes, and high-end sportswear outperforms mass-market sportswear), and on the other hand, the ability of brand marketing and new product launches (e.g., successful new product IPs have high prices and good sales growth). Homogeneous products are more likely to face downward price pressure.

Target Recommendations

Recommend Li Ning (02331), which has strong capabilities in launching popular new products in the mass sports sector; recommend ANTA SPORTS (02020), which has the advantage of a multi-brand matrix; and suggest paying attention to Xtep International (01368) and 361 Degrees (01361), which are driven by the continuous growth of professional running products. Also, consider the core retailer Tmall (06110), which benefits from the new product cycle of international brands, as well as suppliers Shenzhou International (02313) and HLIG (300979.SZ).

Risk Warning

Weak macroeconomic conditions; consumer recovery not meeting expectations; international political and economic risks; significant fluctuations in exchange rates and raw material prices