New Stock Outlook | Can Xgimi Technology, the leader in consumer-grade projectors, tap into the overseas market with its Hong Kong listing?

After returning to positive growth, the global projection industry leader—Xgimi Technology (688696.SH) has embarked on its journey to list in Hong Kong.

According to Zhitong Finance APP, on September 29, Xgimi Technology submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with China International Capital Corporation as its sole sponsor. The prospectus shows that Xgimi Technology intends to use the funds raised from this Hong Kong listing mainly for three major directions: global brand and product marketing to accelerate international expansion; strengthening R&D capabilities and expanding product portfolio; and working capital and general corporate purposes.

China's Projection Industry "Sales Champion"

Founded in 2013, Xgimi Technology's core business revolves around the R&D, production, and sales of consumer-grade, automotive-grade, and engineering-grade smart projection products. Classified by product type, the company's projectors cover three major segments: long-focus projectors, short-focus projectors, and innovative projectors.

As of the last feasible date (September 22, 2025), Xgimi Technology's products are sold in over 100 countries and regions, including Europe, North America, Japan, and Australia, with more than 6,000 offline sales points globally and cumulative shipments exceeding 7 million units. According to Frost & Sullivan data, Xgimi Technology has been the sales leader in China's projection industry for seven consecutive years since 2018; since 2020, it has held the title of domestic revenue champion for five consecutive years. In the Chinese mid-to-high-end projector market, it achieved a market share of 30.2% in terms of revenue in 2024, ranking first in both sales and revenue in the industry.

Xgimi Technology maintains a leading business scale, benefiting from the differentiated advantages it has built at the technical level. Relying on its core advantages accumulated in optical machine self-research, Eagle Eye optical computing, and GMUI interactive experience, the company can expand its products from consumer-grade to automotive-grade and engineering-grade products that have higher requirements for projection technology. Among them, the automotive projection business focuses on in-car cabin audiovisual projection and smart car light projection, which has currently achieved mass production and delivery, being applied in multiple new energy vehicle models by leading manufacturers such as Seres, JAC Motors, and BAIC.

In terms of engineering-grade projection products, Xgimi Technology will launch the T10 series in September 2025, with a brightness of up to 6400 CVIA lumens, supporting 4K ultra-high-definition quality, applicable in high-end home theaters, commercial displays, and other scenarios. In terms of value-added services, the Chinese market provides audio-visual content and application distribution services through the GMUI platform, sharing revenue with developers; the overseas market collaborates with game developers and streaming platforms to enrich product functions and revenue paths

Product Prices Under Pressure, Performance Fluctuates Dramatically

From the financial data, Xgimi Technology has shown a trend of pressured revenue growth and dramatic profit fluctuations in recent years. From 2022 to 2024, the company's revenue was 4.22 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), 3.552 billion yuan, and 3.4 billion yuan, respectively, declining for two consecutive years, mainly due to changes in the demand structure of the consumer projection market, with consumers showing a preference for entry-level products. To respond to market trends, the company launched low-priced models, leading to a decrease in overall average selling prices. In the first half of 2025, revenue slightly increased by 1.63% to 1.623 billion yuan, indicating a gradual recovery in market demand, but still showing a significant gap compared to 2.036 billion yuan in the same period of 2022.

Profit fluctuations are even more pronounced. From 2022 to 2024, the company's profits were 501 million yuan, 120 million yuan, and 120 million yuan, respectively, with a significant year-on-year decline of 76% in 2023. Although profits stabilized in 2024, there remains a significant gap compared to the peak in 2022. In the first half of 2025, profits rebounded to 88 million yuan, mainly benefiting from supply chain optimization and cost control, but the stability of profitability still needs to be observed. In terms of gross margin, it was 35%, 29.8%, and 30.3% from 2022 to 2024, with a rebound to 32.1% in the first half of 2025. Although there has been some recovery, there is still room for improvement compared to historical highs, reflecting the impact of product structure adjustments and cost pressures on profitability.

In addition to performance fluctuations, Xgimi Technology also faces multiple risks such as market competition, supply chain issues, and technological iterations, which require continuous attention. In terms of industry competition and product price pressure, the global projection industry has a relatively clear competitive landscape, but a large number of new players have entered the consumer market, compounded by the trend of larger television screens, resulting in significant downward pressure on product prices. For example, from 2022 to 2024, the average selling price of the company's long-focus projection products dropped from 3,400 yuan to 2,700 yuan, and further decreased to 2,600 yuan in the first half of 2025.

Regarding supply chain and cost risks, Xgimi Technology's production is highly dependent on core components such as chips and laser modules. In 2024, the proportion of purchases from the top five suppliers accounted for 36.8%, with the largest supplier accounting for 20.3%. In the first half of 2025, the proportion of purchases from the top five suppliers significantly increased to 51.9%, with the largest supplier's share rising to 35%, mainly due to the company's strategic advance procurement of core components to address potential supply risks and the demand for automotive-grade products. It is worth noting that raw material prices are affected by fluctuations in bulk commodities and geopolitical factors. If costs rise and cannot be effectively passed on to the end consumer, it will directly impact profitability In terms of technological iteration and R&D risks, the projection industry experiences rapid technological updates, with 4K, laser technology, and AI integration becoming trends. The company needs to continuously invest in R&D to maintain its leading position. From 2022 to 2024, R&D expenditure is expected to remain between 360 million to 380 million yuan, with the R&D expense ratio increasing from 8.9% to 10.8%, and further rising to 12.2% in the first half of 2025. However, there is uncertainty regarding whether R&D investments can be transformed into market-recognized products, as automotive-grade projection and engineering-grade products are still in the market validation stage, and their profitability contribution remains unclear.

The Growth Dividend in the Projector Industry Still Exists

Despite facing challenges, Xgimi Technology can still seize opportunities based on industry growth dividends and its own strategic layout. The core support for this judgment comes from the development prospects of the global projection industry and the company's differentiated layout.

From an industry perspective, according to Frost & Sullivan data, the global projection industry is in a phase of steady growth. In 2024, the global projection market size is expected to reach 17.012 million units in terms of sales and 53.19 billion yuan in terms of revenue. It is projected that from 2024 to 2029, the compound annual growth rates for sales and revenue will be 13.0% and 11.4%, respectively, with both expected to exceed 31.3 million units and 91.23 billion yuan by 2029.

In the segmented fields, consumer-grade projection remains the core growth driver, accounting for 60.2% of revenue in 2024, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 11.4% from 2024 to 2029. Automotive-grade projection, as an emerging field, shows even more significant growth, with expected revenue of 600 million yuan in 2024 and a projected compound annual growth rate of 57.2% from 2024 to 2029, becoming a new growth engine for the industry. Although engineering-grade projection has a relatively moderate growth rate, with a compound annual growth rate of 8% from 2024 to 2029, its market size base is large, with expected revenue of 20.6 billion yuan in 2024. As the demand for commercial scenarios upgrades, there is still stable growth potential.

From the company's strategic perspective, Xgimi Technology's three major directions are expected to resonate with industry trends. In the consumer-grade projector market, the company has built a product matrix covering all price segments from entry-level to high-end. The Play series and Z series target the mass market, while the RS series and T10 series position themselves in the mid-to-high-end market, catering to different consumer groups' needs. At the same time, by enhancing user stickiness through the GMUI system and content ecosystem development, the company is transitioning from a "hardware sales" model to a "hardware + service" model, which is expected to enhance revenue stability in the long term.

Xgimi Technology has made breakthroughs in the automotive-grade and engineering-grade projector markets. In the automotive-grade projection field, the increasing penetration rate of new energy vehicles drives the growth of in-car entertainment demand. The company has entered the supply chain of mainstream OEMs, and if it can expand its customer base in the future, the revenue share from automotive-grade business is expected to gradually increase. In the engineering-grade market, the launch of the T10 series fills the gap in the company's high-end commercial field, and with the upgrading demand for scenarios such as cultural tourism and corporate displays, it is expected to become a new profit growth point In terms of market dimensions, the company plans to increase investments in markets such as North America and Southeast Asia, replicating the successful experiences in Europe and Japan, while exploring the integration of AI and projection technology, such as developing innovative products like AI glasses to expand the boundaries of smart display. It is important to note that the realization of the above prospects relies on multiple prerequisites. First, R&D investments must continuously translate into technological advantages; second, automotive and engineering-grade products must gain market recognition; third, overseas expansion must balance costs and benefits.

In summary, from a business fundamentals perspective, Xgimi Technology possesses core advantages in technological barriers, market share, and global layout, and the projection industry it operates in is still in a growth phase, with long-term sustainable growth expected through deep cultivation of the consumer market and breakthroughs in automotive and engineering-grade markets. However, it is also necessary to recognize that the company faces multiple risks such as performance fluctuations, supply chain concentration, and technological iteration, especially against the backdrop of weak consumer demand and intensified industry competition, where profitability stability and growth certainty still require time to validate.

For investors, attention should be paid to the efficiency of fund utilization after its listing on the Hong Kong stock market, the progress of new business profitability, and the expansion of overseas markets; for the industry, the listing of Xgimi Technology may promote further standardization of the projection industry, accelerate technological iteration and global competition, ultimately benefiting consumers and the overall development of the industry. In the future, whether Xgimi Technology can maintain its advantages in the Chinese market while occupying a more important position on the global stage remains to be seen by the market