OpenAI aims to compete for the "future internet gateway," but Google's moat is very deep

In the era of AI reshaping the internet, browsers are becoming the new "battlefield." OpenAI has launched the AI browser Atlas, attempting to compete for the "future internet gateway," but the biggest challenge it faces remains Google's deep moat.

On October 22, according to an article by Wall Street News, this browser deeply integrates ChatGPT into the web browsing experience and is equipped with AI agent capabilities, allowing it to perform tasks such as booking flights and editing documents on behalf of users. Atlas has now been globally released on macOS, with Windows, iOS, and Android versions to follow.

However, for OpenAI to pry open the door to this "internet gateway," the biggest challenge it faces is still Google's deep moat. Chrome has over 3 billion global users, accounting for about 70% of the market share, and the rapid integration of the Gemini AI model means Google has not fallen behind in the AI browsing experience. More critically, consumers have very little interest in switching browsers; even the most dazzling AI features are unlikely to easily change user habits.

The "sidebar chat" and "agent mode" showcased by Atlas are indeed impressive—AI can explain content in real-time on web pages, summarize information, and even book restaurants or shop for groceries on behalf of users. However, HSBC pointed out that the features of Atlas are not unique; Google demonstrated similar capabilities in a blog post in September. Bloomberg columnist Dave Lee also believes that Atlas lacks sufficient incentives for users to switch from Chrome.

Market reactions also confirm this cautious attitude. On the day of Atlas's release, Alphabet's stock briefly fell before quickly recovering, ultimately closing down only 2.2%. Analysts believe that investors do not see OpenAI as a "disruptor," but rather focus on how Google will respond. As Google's earnings report approaches on October 29, attention may shift to its internal DeepMind "Project Mariner"—which may be Google's true ace in preparation for the AI browsing era.

Core Features of the AI Browser: Sidebar and Agent Mode

The design philosophy of ChatGPT Atlas is to place the AI assistant at the absolute center of the browsing experience. Unlike Google Chrome, which has gradually transitioned to AI over ten years, Atlas has set ChatGPT as the default entry point from the very beginning.

When users open the browser, the first thing they see is the ChatGPT search bar, rather than the Google search box, and the page will display task prompts such as research topic suggestions or weekend travel planning. The button at the top of the page can bring up ChatGPT in the sidebar, allowing users to highlight text and enter simple commands like "What is this?" to receive instant explanations According to a previous article mentioned by Wall Street Journal, OpenAI's product head Adam Fry demonstrated the "sidecar" feature during a live stream on Tuesday, where ChatGPT can record the websites visited by users and their actions to provide personalized responses.

When users click on search result links, a split-screen interface is displayed by default: the left side shows the webpage, and the right side shows the ChatGPT conversation history, ensuring that the AI assistant is always by their side. The browser also features a webpage summary function and a "cursor chat" function, allowing users to select text in emails and have ChatGPT instantly polish it.

For paid users, Atlas offers an "agent mode," where ChatGPT can complete tasks in the browser on their behalf.

In the demonstration, when a user requested to find a bar near the subway line 7 in Long Island City, New York, that offers cheap drinks and to book a table for three, ChatGPT successfully recommended a cocktail bar near Queensboro Plaza station that offers happy hour deals and inquired about the reservation time. Another demonstration showed that Atlas could analyze online recipes and order the required ingredients through the Instacart website.

Google Already Has Similar Capabilities, with a Clear Market Share Advantage

In September of this year, Google integrated the Gemini AI model into the Chrome browser, allowing users to have the AI explain webpage content, extract information across multiple tabs, and even restore previously closed websites. Google plans to enable Gemini to handle "tedious tasks" such as online shopping, booking, or ordering food on behalf of users in the coming months.

HSBC analysts pointed out that the search history, webpage summary, and document editing features demonstrated by Atlas are not exclusive. Google showcased similar capabilities of Gemini in Chrome in a blog post on September 18. HSBC believes that "the most impressive feature in the demonstration is the agent function, but according to Google's blog, Gemini in Chrome can perform similar tasks."

Chrome has approximately 3 billion users worldwide and holds a 64% share of the desktop browser market in the United States, with a global share as high as 74%.

According to StatCounter data, recently launched AI-enhanced browsers such as The Browser Company's Dia and Perplexity's Comet have usage rates below 1%, failing to show up in market share statistics. This indicates that consumers have limited interest in switching browsers. HSBC analysts stated that Google tends to adopt a reactive strategy in its release approach. They pointed out that although Gemini was launched four months later than ChatGPT, it subsequently succeeded in capturing market share from OpenAI.

In the past 12 months, Gemini's generative AI market share has roughly doubled, while OpenAI's share has correspondingly declined. HSBC believes that "the release of Atlas may only raise questions about the broader timeline for Google DeepMind's Project Mariner."

Browser Market Landscape Hard to Shake, AI Features Have Yet to Change User Habits

Atlas enters an increasingly crowded AI browser market. Perplexity AI's Comet, The Browser Company's Dia, Opera Neon, and Copilot in Microsoft Edge are all competing to make web browsing more conversational and automated. These newcomers aim to replace static searches and tab switching with intelligent assistants that can understand context and perform multi-step tasks.

For publishers and content creators, the shift from manual searches to agent-driven actions could profoundly reshape SEO and web traffic strategies.

For most internet users, browsers have long been a hub for work, shopping, and entertainment, but have seen limited evolution over decades. AI browsers promise to automate tedious tasks within these tabs: summarizing research, rewriting emails, comparing flights, or drafting replies without switching applications.

Bloomberg columnist Dave Lee noted that in recent months, despite the release of several AI-enhanced browsers, Google's browser market share has actually increased. This indicates that consumers are not interested in switching browsers. If existing browsers are functioning well and users are accustomed to them, significant incentives are needed to change, and OpenAI has not provided such incentives.

In his comments, Dave Lee quoted Altman, stating that AI "represents a rare, once-in-a-decade opportunity" to disrupt the browser market. However, he also pointed out that the best features of Atlas require a paid subscription, which will further reduce users' willingness to switch.

He noted that Altman stated over two years ago that adding ChatGPT to Microsoft Bing represented an opportunity to disrupt the search market, but Google's dominance in search has remained largely unshaken. The slight drop in Alphabet's stock price on Tuesday followed by a rebound may indicate that investors are beginning to hold reservations about Altman's promotion.

Alphabet's stock price quickly fell 4.8% after opening on Tuesday, but began to recover as Altman and his team showcased Atlas's features in a live demonstration, ultimately closing down 2.2%, while the broader market remained essentially flat. Analysts believe that this trend may suggest that investors are not as concerned about OpenAI's challenge as previously expected.

HSBC analysts stated that the release of Atlas will not change their investment thesis on Alphabet. They believe that given Alphabet's ownership of Google DeepMind and its strong financial resources, the company is capable of weathering market shocks Analysts expect that the release of Atlas may only raise questions about the broader timeline for Google's DeepMind Project Mariner. Google will announce its financial report on October 29, and is expected to face multiple questions regarding competitive browsers