In "Hong Kong Property," Centaline: New property subscriptions in the third quarter surged by 45% quarter-on-quarter, expected to reach a three-year high for the year

Yang Mingyi, Senior Co-Director of the Research Department at Centaline Property, pointed out that in the third quarter of 2025, the number of new property subscriptions recorded 381, a sharp increase of 44.9% compared to 263 in the second quarter, reaching an 11-quarter high since records began in the first quarter of 2023. Among them, there were 355 major subscriptions, with the proportion of major subscriptions rising for two consecutive quarters to 93%; the proportion of minor subscriptions, however, fell for two consecutive quarters to only 7%. In the first three quarters, there were a total of 727 subscriptions, which is 63.4% higher than the total of 445 for the entire year of 2024. If only major subscriptions are counted, this figure is significantly higher by 91.2% compared to last year. The increase in numbers is attributed not only to new properties being handed over but also to an improved market atmosphere in the third quarter, with stable and slightly rising property prices and increased transactions, prompting developers to accelerate the sale of subscribed units in a booming market. It is estimated that the total number of subscriptions for this year may approach one thousand, representing a year-on-year surge of 1.25 times, reaching a three-year high.

Although the number of new property subscriptions continues to increase, the resale ratio has significantly risen. In the third quarter of this year, among the 381 first-hand private residential transactions that were canceled, 266 had been successfully resold by the end of September, resulting in a resale ratio of 70%. This is a noticeable increase of 27 percentage points compared to the 43% resale ratio of subscriptions that were resold in the same quarter of the second quarter, marking an eight-quarter high for the resale ratio of subscriptions in the same quarter. This indicates that developers are reducing prices and re-launching subscribed units after reclaiming them, leading to rapid market absorption of the supply and thus pushing up the resale ratio.

The project with the highest number of subscriptions in the third quarter of 2025 was Phase I of Pak Long I on Kam Sheung Road, Yuen Long, which recorded 136 subscriptions. The second place was taken by Marina Bay in Tseung Kwan O with 42 subscriptions. Other projects with a higher number of subscriptions include Phase II of Pak Long II on Kam Sheung Road, Kai Tak Ocean Pride, Phase I of Metro City in Hung Shui Kiu, Phase IC of Yau Ma Tei, Liufang? Xianan, and Blue Coast in Yau Tong, with subscriptions ranging from 9 to 25. Except for Marina Bay and Liufang? Xianan, all of the above eight projects are major subscription cases, with Marina Bay and Liufang? Xianan having 2% and 8% minor subscription cases, respectively. The resale ratios for Liufang? Xianan and Blue Coast are relatively low, at only 33% and 11%. The resale ratios for the other six projects exceed 60%, ranging from 67% to 100%.

In the third quarter, all units with a resale price drop of 50% or more were from Evergrande? Junlong Bay in Tuen Mun, totaling 12 units, all of which were sold during the peak of property prices in 2020 to 2021, and all are small units under 400 square feet. The largest drop was for Unit Q on the 5th floor of Block 2, with a usable area of 233 square feet, originally purchased in September 2020 for HKD 4.542 million, at a price per square foot of HKD 19,494. The unit was canceled in May 2022 and resold in the third quarter of 2025 for HKD 2.174 million, at a price per square foot of HKD 9,330, representing a 52% drop in resale price. Excluding Evergrande? Junlong Bay, the largest drop in resale price was for Unit B on the 6th floor of Ho Tin in Ho Man Tin, with a usable area of 1,477 square feet, originally purchased in April 2021 for HKD 55 million, at a price per square foot of HKD 37,238. The unit was canceled in September 2025 and resold this third quarter for HKD 32 million, at a price per square foot of HKD 21,666 The selling price has been reduced by 42%