From Accumulation to Power, Reassessing the Investment Value of "All-Powerful" CHINA RISUN GP

Recent signs indicate that the Federal Reserve's years-long balance sheet reduction plan is about to change direction, and a new round of quantitative easing is expected to have a significant impact on the macroeconomy. As a result, the investment styles and preferences of active funds in the global capital markets are likely to change in tandem.

Based on historical experience, after the Federal Reserve initiates a rate-cutting cycle, global manufacturing tends to recover, and this process will inevitably lead to an increase in physical consumption. Correspondingly, the demand for black commodities represented by coal and midstream raw materials represented by chemicals will see positive changes. Based on this logic, selecting investment targets, China Risun Group (01907), which has strong global competitiveness in the fine chemicals and coke sectors, can be considered a very promising stock to watch.

For example, in the traditional advantageous field of coke, in the past few years, against the backdrop of continued sluggish domestic demand for coke, Risun Group has taken proactive measures to consolidate its long-term competitiveness and steadily build up strength to welcome the new industry cycle.

On one hand, Risun Group vigorously develops an operational management service model to achieve high-quality scale expansion through a light asset approach. Based on its deep accumulation in the industry, Risun has refined, integrated, and solidified its experience and technology in the coke sector, providing a replicable operational management service to empower the entire industry. In the first half of this year, Risun Group added 2.6 million tons/year of new entrusted projects in Shanxi and Jilin, currently operating 8 projects with a total business scale of 7 million tons/year for coke and 660,000 tons/year for chemicals, achieving a business volume of 4.5 million tons. The revenue from the operational management service segment in the first half of 2025 is expected to be 5.095 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.01%.

On the other hand, Risun Group continues to accelerate the implementation of a dual circulation development pattern for its coke business both domestically and internationally. Since establishing its first overseas production park in Sulawesi, Indonesia in 2021, Risun Group has successively set up offices in Australia, Japan, Vietnam, Singapore, and India to expand its global supply chain system, forming an international strategic layout that radiates the global coking industry with Indonesia Risun Weishan as the pivot. Currently, the total capacity of the Risun Sulawesi park is 3.2 million tons/year, with coke sales of 2.22 million tons in 2024, covering 51 customers in 17 countries including Europe and Southeast Asia. Last year, the total revenue was $730 million, with a net profit of $15 million, ROE of 5.7%, and ROA of 1.4%.

During the previous industry adjustment period, Risun Group accumulated momentum both internally and externally, and is now expected to exhibit stronger upward elasticity during the industry's stabilization and recovery phase.

First, looking at the overall market news, the investment value of the current pro-cyclical sectors may have reached a moment that requires immediate reassessment. On the macro front, high-frequency data shows that the year-on-year decline in domestic PPI narrowed in September, remaining flat month-on-month. Among domestically priced commodities, coal, benefiting from effective capacity governance and optimized market competition order, has shown an initial improvement trend in its price. Taking coke as an example, before the dual holiday, expectations for inventory replenishment were initiated, coupled with high iron and steel demand providing support and rising prices of coking coal on the raw material side, the coke market improved. In late September, coke enterprises initiated the first round of price increases for coke, which was implemented just before the National Day holiday, with an increase of 50-75 yuan/ton. According to market news, some coke enterprises have recently issued letters to initiate a new round of price increases for coke Currently, the market generally expects one to two more rounds of price increases, and after the improvement in coking profits, coke is still expected to maintain a relatively loose supply situation.

On the demand side, considering that the current domestic top-down "anti-involution" stance is higher, broader in coverage, and stronger in synergy, the possibility that its long-term effects will exceed expectations should be taken seriously. Driven by "anti-involution," the certainty of a rebound in domestic demand is relatively high, and the subsequent improvement on the demand side is expected to continue to transmit to the mid and upstream sectors and ultimately reflect in corporate financial statements. For Xuyang Group, the turning point in performance is likely to arrive earlier.

Additionally, it can also be anticipated that, referencing the views of major institutions, recent high-level meetings may introduce structural and industry-specific incremental policies, along with policy financial tools, which are expected to have a positive impact on cyclical sectors. However, it is somewhat regrettable that, based on the stock price trends of leading companies in segmented industries like Xuyang Group, funds have not yet fully priced in these potential benefits.

Looking further ahead, considering that the Federal Reserve's restart of the interest rate cut cycle is highly probable, the subsequent new round of global monetary easing is of profound significance for substantive improvement expectations and stimulating effective demand. Against this backdrop, the prosperity of cyclical industries such as coke, coking, and chemicals is expected to continue to rise, and the investment value of these industries should be emphasized.

Looking back at Xuyang Group, in the first six months of this year, both the coke and chemical new materials business volumes reached historical highs. The high-quality expansion of scale not only confirms the company's fruitful phased achievements in transforming and upgrading towards a service-oriented manufacturing industry but also indicates that the company's globalization strategy is continuously advancing. In this sense, Zhitong Finance believes that Xuyang Group has clearly undergone a comprehensive evolution. In the future, with the commencement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, the introduction of more incremental domestic policies, and the deepening of "anti-involution," the fundamentals of related enterprises are bound to improve, and the capital market's style switch may also proceed accordingly. At that time, leading companies like Xuyang Group, which have solid fundamentals and ample development momentum, are sure to experience a "reversal of the investment clock."