"AI bubble sounds" rise, Goldman Sachs does not believe the rumors

As the valuations of artificial intelligence (AI) related companies soar, massive AI investments surge, and the AI ecosystem becomes increasingly closed-loop, concerns about an AI bubble have resurfaced.

The fervor for AI investments is unprecedented. Reports indicate that the combined valuation of ten unprofitable AI startups globally has skyrocketed by nearly $1 trillion over the past 12 months, marking the fastest wealth expansion in history. Meanwhile, they have collectively attracted over $200 billion in venture capital funding this year, accounting for two-thirds of the total VC investment in the U.S. for the year. However, they are almost all operating at a loss.

Concerns about an AI bubble have resurfaced, arguably stronger than ever before, as many companies in the AI sector see significant increases in valuation, investments in AI continue to rise substantially, and the AI ecosystem increasingly exhibits circularity, with model companies, infrastructure providers, and hyperscale enterprises signing agreements that blur the lines between customers, suppliers, and capacity providers. Against the backdrop of these developments and escalating concerns, the rise of large tech stocks may be masking signs of weakness in the broader market, making the question of whether concerns about an AI bubble are justified a focal topic in the market.

Previously, major U.S. banks reported record quarterly earnings—trading activity and receivables reached new highs, partly driven by the AI boom. However, several Wall Street executives have warned that the AI industry may be falling into excessive enthusiasm. Meanwhile, both the Bank of England and IMF President Kristalina Georgieva expressed concerns this month about the U.S. stock market boom driven by the AI frenzy.

Moreover, according to the latest Bank of America fund manager survey, as AI concept stocks have experienced a strong rally this year, the proportion of global fund managers who believe the sector has entered a bubble has reached a historical high. In the October survey, about 54% of respondents indicated that tech stocks are currently overvalued; just last month, nearly half of the respondents were dismissive of concerns about "overvaluation of tech stocks." At the same time, worries about overvaluation in the global stock market have also peaked in this survey So, are these concerns reasonable or excessive?

After years of optimism and the stock market continuously hitting new highs, some investors are now expressing concerns about a bubble in the U.S. stock market, comparing it to the capital expenditure frenzy during the internet bubble and the subsequent collapse.

In response, the Goldman Sachs team stated that while they see some worrying factors, they overall believe that the U.S. technology sector has not yet fallen into a bubble (at least not at the moment), but they are more concerned about the significant gap between public market valuations and (higher) private market valuations.

Goldman Sachs equity strategists pointed out that while some characteristics of the current period are similar to past bubbles, and the cyclicality of trading is worth monitoring, public market valuations and the level of capital market activity are still below the peaks seen during the internet stock bubble. They also noted that the Mag7 companies continue to generate excess free cash flow, engage in stock buybacks, and pay dividends—behaviors that were rare during the internet stock bubble. Therefore, they seem less inclined to label the current public market situation as a bubble, although they acknowledge that "artificial intelligence may not have yet become a bubble." Byron Deeter, a partner at venture capital firm Bessemer Venture Partners, is also more optimistic about the boom in AI capital expenditures.

However, Sequoia Capital analyst David Cahn holds a different view, arguing that only through general artificial intelligence (AGI) can the rationale for large-scale data center construction by 2030 be proven, while still being optimistic about the numerous opportunities in private AI application companies. New York University professor Gary Marcus remains skeptical about the technology itself, at least in its current form.

Lauren Taylor Wolfe, managing partner at Impactive Capital, also pointed out that the AI industry is in a bubble that will ultimately burst. She compares the current AI investment frenzy to the internet bubble of the late 1990s. Her core concern lies in the severe disconnect between investment and returns in the AI field. "Trillions of dollars are being planned for investment in AI, while the seven tech giants only generate hundreds of billions in free cash flow. Who can prove that they can generate trillions in profits over the next five years? This is simply not feasible; it doesn't hold up mathematically."

Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs believes that the current rally—especially the strong performance of tech stocks—is "so far primarily driven by fundamental growth rather than irrational speculation."

So, how should investors position themselves? Goldman Sachs concluded that opportunities in the technology sector still exist, but diversification is a wise move. In the tech field, Goldman Sachs analysts believe that stocks benefiting from potential AI disruption and undervalued growth stories hold value, and they see opportunities at various levels of AI infrastructure, platforms, and applications; they also believe that the investment theme of leading semiconductor companies remains solid.

Cahn Cahn, a partner at Sequoia Capital, also sees significant opportunities in AI application companies, which primarily exist in today's private markets, "priced high, but with high-quality business models."

Deutsche Bank emphasized that identifying bubbles is nearly impossible, as no one can agree on the exact definition of "asset prices significantly above intrinsic value." Historical experience shows that bubbles do not develop in a linear process, often evolving through several rounds of ups and downs. Deutsche Bank summarized that the market may remain "irrational" longer than investors can maintain their solvency. The bank recommends that investors adopt a long-term holding strategy to obtain the risk premium needed to compensate for equity investment risks