U.S. Stock Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, Intel Gains After Earnings, U.S. September CPI Looms Large

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of October 24th (Friday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.16%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.33%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.50%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 0.11%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.06%, the French CAC40 index is down 0.57%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.20%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.60%, priced at $62.16 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.55%, priced at $66.35 per barrel.

Market News

Will the CPI bring surprise or joy amid the "data drought"? This month, Wall Street is extremely eager for data, and the U.S. September CPI report to be released tonight has become almost the sole focus, making it more likely to be a key event influencing market trends. Economists expect the overall CPI in September to rise 0.4% month-on-month, unchanged from August; the year-on-year increase is expected to be 3.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from August. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, both unchanged from August. Although the actual data is expected to be roughly in line with recent months, the severe shortfall in official economic reports due to the government shutdown means that even slight deviations in data could trigger market volatility far exceeding normal levels.

U.S. inflation is expected to heat up, but does the Federal Reserve care? Economists' forecasts for the September CPI indicate that inflation may continue to run high due to tariffs pushing up commodity prices. However, BlackRock's Head of Americas Investment Strategy, Rick Rieder, stated: "I don't think anything we see in the CPI data will change the outcome of the Fed's October meeting. From what we hear in the Fed's wording and language, it's clear they believe rates are restrictive, so for now, they are leaning towards rate cuts." "I think the more important factors they are focusing on now may be the labor market and how weakness there translates to the real economy." According to the CME's "FedWatch" tool, the futures market predicts a 98.9% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at the October meeting, and a 96.1% probability of another 25 basis point cut at the December meeting "AI bubble sounds" are rising, Goldman Sachs does not believe the rumors. With the soaring valuations of AI-related companies, massive AI investments, and the increasingly closed-loop AI ecosystem, concerns about an AI bubble have resurfaced. In response, Goldman Sachs stated that while they see some worrying factors, they generally believe that the U.S. tech industry has not yet fallen into a bubble (at least not at this moment), but they are more concerned about the huge gap between public market valuations and (higher) private market valuations. The bank's strategists pointed out that while some characteristics of the current period are similar to past bubbles, and the cyclicality of trading is worth noting, public market valuations and the level of capital market activity are still below the peaks seen during the dot-com bubble. They also noted that the "seven giants" of U.S. stocks continue to generate excess free cash flow, engage in stock buybacks, and pay dividends, which was rare during the dot-com bubble. Furthermore, Goldman Sachs emphasized that opportunities in the tech sector still exist, but diversification is a wise move.

U.S. bank reserves continue to decline, falling below $3 trillion, and the Federal Reserve may face a critical decision at next week's meeting. The reserve levels in the U.S. banking system have declined for the second consecutive week, further dropping below $3 trillion. Reserves are a key consideration for the Federal Reserve in deciding whether to continue reducing its balance sheet, and this comes at a time when the Fed faces a significant decision on whether to continue shrinking its balance sheet. Due to quantitative tightening potentially exacerbating liquidity constraints and triggering market turmoil, the Fed had slowed the pace of monthly bond holdings reduction earlier this year. The market widely expects that Fed officials will decide on the future direction of balance sheet policy at next week's meeting. Strategists at JP Morgan and Bank of America expect the Fed to halt the reduction of its approximately $6.6 trillion balance sheet this month, thereby ending the process aimed at withdrawing liquidity from financial markets, a view shared by TD Securities and Refinitiv ICAP.

"The anchor of global asset pricing" has reached a critical point! For the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, known as the "anchor of global asset pricing," if the September U.S. CPI data exceeds expectations, it could drive the yield curve significantly upward (as U.S. Treasury yields move inversely to U.S. Treasury prices), leading to a severe setback in global equity and bond markets. Conversely, if the U.S. CPI shows that inflation is cooling more than the market expects, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may enter a new downward curve, likely propelling the global stock market into a new bull market trajectory with record highs. Some analysts believe that inflation data exceeding general market expectations could change the outlook, and the yield changes brought about by inflation data could even become a critical point for the market.

The narrative of a gold bull market is further strengthened! This U.S. government shutdown is likely to be the longest in history. The U.S. government shutdown has entered its fourth week, and as of now, there are still no signs of an end to the shutdown. The latest data from Polymarket, the world's largest paid prediction market, indicates that this shutdown could extend until mid-November or even later, and it is highly likely to become the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history. Undoubtedly, an extended shutdown will significantly amplify uncertainties in the global macroeconomic and growth landscape, strengthen expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and combined with the potential escalation of current U.S.-China trade frictions, directly increase the safe-haven demand for gold

Individual Stock News

The AI infrastructure arms race heats up, Google (GOOGL.US) and Anthropic reach a $10 billion chip deal! Google will supply up to 1 million dedicated AI chips to the AI startup Anthropic PBC. This multi-billion dollar order further deepens the partnership between the two companies. This arrangement provides Anthropic with stronger computing power support while solidifying Google's position as a major investor and key infrastructure provider, expanding its lead in the increasingly fierce arms race for large AI models. Google stated in the announcement that the tensor processing units (TPUs) scheduled for deployment in 2026 will soon bring over a billion watts of capacity, making it one of the largest orders in the AI hardware arms race.

Intel (INTC.US) is reborn! Q3 revenue exceeds expectations and turns profitable. The financial report shows that Intel's Q3 revenue grew 3% year-on-year to $13.7 billion, achieving positive year-on-year growth for the first time in a year and a half, better than the market expectation of $13.2 billion. The adjusted earnings per share were 23 cents, far exceeding the market expectation of 1 cent. The adjusted operating profit margin reached 11%, compared to -17.8% in the same period last year. In addition, the company's management stated that the market's demand for its chips will continue to exceed supply until next year, mainly due to the unprecedented AI boom driving a surge in demand for high-performance server CPUs in data centers and strong demand for AIPC equipped with Intel PC chips. As of the time of writing, Intel's stock rose over 7% in pre-market trading on Friday.

A fire burns $2 billion! F-150 core supplier faces fire, Ford (F.US) profits under pressure but quickly "extinguishes the fire." A devastating fire at the core aluminum supplier factory for Ford's best-selling F-150 pickup truck is expected to impact the company's profits by up to $2 billion, casting a shadow over its previously better-than-expected financial performance. Ford stated that it now expects adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) for the year to be between $6 billion and $6.5 billion, significantly down from the previous guidance of up to $7.5 billion. However, the company's overall performance in the third quarter was strong—adjusted earnings per share were 45 cents, higher than the analyst average expectation of 36 cents; sales reached a record $50.5 billion, also exceeding the analyst expectation of $43.7 billion. As of the time of writing, Ford's stock rose over 4% in pre-market trading on Friday.

Procter & Gamble (PG.US) Q1 performance exceeds expectations, maintains full-year guidance. The financial report shows that Procter & Gamble's net sales for the first fiscal quarter were $22.39 billion, higher than the market expectation of $22.17 billion, as consumers ignored price increases and continued to purchase the company's Gillette razors and Secret brand deodorants enthusiastically. Organic growth was 2%, higher than the market expectation of 1.42%. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.99, above the market expectation of $1.91. The company has basically maintained its performance outlook for fiscal year 2026, but currently expects the impact of tariffs and commodity prices to be more moderate. The company currently estimates that the after-tax impact of tariffs will be about $400 million, lower than the previous estimate of $800 million As of the time of publication, Procter & Gamble rose over 3% in pre-market trading on Friday.

Flagship drug Dupixent sales exceeded 4 billion euros in a single quarter for the first time, Sanofi (SNY.US) reported third-quarter profits that exceeded expectations. The financial report shows that Sanofi's third-quarter revenue was 12.43 billion euros, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%; at constant exchange rates, earnings per share were 2.91 euros, surpassing the average analyst estimate of 2.65 euros. Sanofi's third-quarter profit growth exceeded analyst expectations, driven primarily by increased demand for its best-selling drug Dupixent in the fields of dermatology and asthma. Additionally, the company reaffirmed its full-year performance guidance. As of the time of publication, Sanofi rose over 2% in pre-market trading on Friday.

Strong Q3 performance and improved cash flow, Eni (E.US) raises stock buyback plan by 20%. The financial report shows that Eni's Q3 revenue was 20.5 billion euros, a decrease of 2% compared to the same period last year; net profit reached 865 million euros, a significant year-on-year increase of 59%; adjusted net profit was 1.25 billion euros, exceeding the analyst expectation of 1.02 billion euros, but slightly lower than the 1.27 billion euros from the same period last year. The company emphasized that due to significantly improved cash flow prospects and profit performance exceeding market expectations, it decided to increase the originally announced 1.5 billion euro stock buyback plan earlier this year by 20% to 1.8 billion euros (approximately 2.1 billion USD). As of the time of publication, Eni rose over 2% in pre-market trading on Friday.

Cost control proves effective, Newmont Mining (NEM.US) reports better-than-expected Q3 earnings. The financial report shows that the company's Q3 revenue was 5.52 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, exceeding market expectations. Earlier this year, a key cost metric had soared to a record high, but third-quarter spending slightly declined, outperforming expectations. This allowed the company to achieve earnings per share of 1.71 USD, exceeding the average analyst expectation by 0.29 USD. Although the company reported better-than-expected adjusted earnings and revenue for the third quarter, it failed to fully capitalize on record gold prices due to lower production. As of the time of publication, Newmont Mining fell over 6% in pre-market trading on Friday.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

At 20:30 Beijing time, the U.S. September CPI report

At 22:00 Beijing time, the final value of the U.S. October University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index