In October, narrow passenger car retail is expected to be 2.2 million units, with new energy vehicles expected to be 1.32 million units

September Market Review

The car market in September performed strongly under the traditional sales peak season of "Golden September" and the promotion of the trade-in policy. The dynamic adjustment of subsidy policies in some regions prompted some car purchase demand to be released in advance during the month. Coupled with manufacturers' end-of-quarter promotional efforts, this collectively drove significant growth in the terminal retail market.

Data from the Passenger Car Market Information Joint Conference of the China Automobile Dealers Association shows that in September, narrow passenger car retail reached 2.244 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% and a month-on-month increase of 11.2%. Among them, the retail of new energy narrow passenger cars for the entire month was 1.299 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15.7% and a month-on-month increase of 16.5%, with a penetration rate rising to 57.8%, indicating rapid growth in the new energy market.

October Market Outlook

The car market in October enters the traditional "Silver October" sales peak season, with the customer gathering effect of the National Day holiday and expectations of year-end policy adjustments combining to continuously release consumer demand at the beginning of the month. As various regions gradually adjust their trade-in subsidy policies, the overall market's driving effect has weakened, and it is expected that growth in the car market will face certain pressures after mid-month.

1. Manufacturer Sales Trends

Based on the previous stable market performance, most manufacturers are optimistic about October sales. The latest manufacturer survey data shows that leading manufacturers, which account for nearly 80% of total market sales, have set positive retail targets for this month, remaining basically flat month-on-month. However, considering the market's cooling after the holiday, it is initially estimated that the retail market scale for narrow passenger cars this month could reach around 2.2 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 2.0%, with new energy retail volume expected to be around 1.32 million units, and the penetration rate likely to rise to around 60%, potentially setting a historical high.

2. Weekly Trend Estimation

The October car market is significantly influenced by the holiday rhythm. In the first week of October, affected by the 8-day long holiday of National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, the average daily retail was 43,500 units, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.7%.

In the second week, as the holiday ended and concentrated deliveries began, the average daily retail surged to 87,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.8% and a significant month-on-month increase of 43.5%.

In the third week, as holiday orders were gradually delivered, the market saw a decline, with an average daily retail of 61,300 units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.5%.

Looking ahead to the latter part of the month, the market is expected to stabilize in the fourth week, with an average daily retail of 68,600 units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 22.4%.

In the fifth week, driven by expectations of policy adjustments and manufacturers' year-end sales push, the average daily retail is expected to rise to 118,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 15.9%.

Considering the performance of each week, the total retail for the month is expected to reach 2.2 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 2.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%.

3. Structural Differentiation in the October Car Market Research results show that after the "Eleventh" holiday, terminal discounts have experienced a seasonal slight recovery, and the overall operation of the automotive market remains stable.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of consumer goods in September increased by 3.0% year-on-year, with the total retail sales of automotive consumer goods increasing by 1.6% year-on-year, an increase of one percentage point compared to August. The growth rate of automotive consumption in the third quarter turned positive from negative, showing a month-on-month improvement, and the market is becoming more rational.

According to CCTV News, as of October 22, the number of applications for the 2025 vehicle trade-in subsidy exceeded 10 million, of which over 340 were for scrapping and updating, and over 660 were for replacement and updating. The policy has significantly boosted the automotive market in the first three quarters. In the past two months, several provinces have gradually adjusted their trade-in subsidy policies.

As of late October, only Beijing and Tibet have not made detailed adjustments to the subsidy amount or application methods. With the narrowing coverage and weakening of the policy, its boosting effect on the overall automotive market has gradually declined, and the market heat has shown a certain degree of retreat after the holiday, with the decline slightly higher than the same period last year.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the main support for the automotive market comes from the continued promotion of scrapping and updating, as well as the demand for early purchases brought about by the decline of the new energy vehicle purchase tax subsidy at the end of the year. In addition, the new models that have been intensively launched since September will gradually begin deliveries, injecting new growth momentum into the market. The new energy market is expected to return to a high-speed growth track, while the trend of fuel vehicles is expected to remain relatively stable, and the performance of new energy markets may further diverge, with the penetration rate of new energy expected to rise to new highs.

Preliminary estimates suggest that the narrow passenger car retail market this month is expected to be around 2.2 million units, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%. Among them, new energy retail is expected to reach around 1.32 million units, with a penetration rate expected to rise to around 60%.

Passenger Car Association, original title: “【Passenger Car Association Forum】October narrow passenger car retail expected to be 2.2 million units, new energy expected to be 1.32 million units”

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