The week that will determine the fate of the market has arrived

October 27 - November 02 Weekly Overview of Major Financial Events, all in Beijing Time:

Key Focus Next Week: The 2025 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders' Informal Meeting, Super Central Bank Week, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Bank of Canada, and others announcing interest rate decisions. Super Earnings Week, with five of the "Seven Giants" in the U.S. stock market—Google, Meta, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft—reporting earnings, while multiple companies in A-shares such as Kweichow Moutai, BYD, and Vanke will also release their performance results.

In addition, China and the U.S. will hold economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24 to 27. Economic data including China's October official manufacturing PMI and the U.S. September core PCE price index will be released. The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference in China will open, with key leaders from the "One Bank and Two Commissions" delivering keynote speeches. Jensen Huang will speak at the NVIDIA GTC conference in Washington, D.C.

Economic Indicators: Super Central Bank Week Approaches

• Federal Reserve FOMC Announces Interest Rate Decision, Powell to Hold Monetary Policy Press Conference

On October 30, the Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting, with the market widely expecting another 25 basis point rate cut. Despite the economy showing resilience and core inflation remaining sticky, Fed Chair Powell and several officials have recently shifted focus to signs of a slowdown in the labor market. The Fed is clearly divided into two factions: about half of the members are more concerned about the risks of a slowing labor market, with Governor Waller recently stating that any employment weakness could be addressed through gradual rate cuts; while the other half remains highly vigilant about inflation risks. Additionally, the ongoing government shutdown has led to the absence of key data, exacerbating policy uncertainty. After the data is released, Fed Chair Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference.

• Bank of Japan and European Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions, Ueda Kazuo and Lagarde to Hold Monetary Policy Press Conference

On October 30, both the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank will announce their interest rate decisions on the same day, with the market generally expecting both central banks to maintain current rates. Although the Bank of Japan faces solid upward inflation, there is internal caution against tightening too early, potentially delaying the rate hike until December; the European Central Bank, influenced by a slight rebound in inflation and a stronger euro, has chosen to remain on the sidelines, with several officials ruling out further rate cuts. After the data is released, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo and European Central Bank President Lagarde will hold a monetary policy press conference.

• U.S. September Core PCE Price Index and Third Quarter Real GDP Data

The U.S. will also release the September core PCE price index, which is the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator. The previously released August data showed that the year-on-year growth rate of core PCE stubbornly remained at a high level of 2.9%, far exceeding the Fed's 2% target. Although strong consumer spending has supported economic growth, this round of consumption boom is more sustained by a drop in the household savings rate to its lowest level of the year, rather than strong income growth On October 30, the United States will also release the third quarter actual GDP data.

• China's October official manufacturing PMI and September profits of industrial enterprises above designated size

On October 31, China will release the October official manufacturing PMI. Previously, the manufacturing PMI for September rose for the second consecutive month to 49.8%, and business production and operation expectations also reached a nearly six-month high. The market is concerned whether the data can break through the boom-bust line with new momentum based on September's 49.8%. On October 27, China will also release the September profits of industrial enterprises above designated size.

Financial Events: APEC Leaders' Informal Meeting to be Held

• The APEC Leaders' Informal Meeting will be held in South Korea from October 31 to November 1

The 2025 APEC Leaders' Informal Meeting will be held in Gyeongju, Gyeongsangbuk-do, South Korea from October 31 to November 1. The leaders of China and the United States will attend.

• Will there be a meeting between the Chinese and U.S. leaders during the APEC meeting? China's Foreign Ministry responds

Regarding whether there will be a meeting between the Chinese and U.S. leaders during the APEC meeting, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiaqin stated that the two sides maintain close communication regarding the meeting of the two heads of state, and any further information will be released in a timely manner.

• China and the U.S. will hold economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24 to 27

According to CCTV News, as agreed by both sides, He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, will lead a delegation to Malaysia from October 24 to 27 for economic and trade consultations with the U.S. side. The two sides will consult on important issues in China-U.S. economic and trade relations based on the important consensus reached in the various phone calls between the two heads of state this year.

• Alibaba Cloud adjusts prices for some cloud server ECS products

Alibaba Cloud: Prices for some cloud server ECS products will be adjusted starting from 12:00 on October 30.

• Guangdong International Robotics and Intelligent Equipment Development Conference to be held from October 28 to 30

From October 28 to 30, the "2025 Guangdong International Robotics and Intelligent Equipment Development Conference" will be grandly held in Dongguan City.

• 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting opens, main leaders of "One Bank, Two Bureaus, One Commission" will give keynote speeches

The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting will be held from October 27 to 30 on Financial Street in Beijing, where the main leaders of "One Bank, Two Bureaus, One Commission" will give keynote speeches. This Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting is co-hosted by the People's Government of Beijing Municipality, the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Xinhua News Agency, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange

• Washington D.C. NVIDIA GTC Conference Jensen Huang delivers a speech

At the NVIDIA GTC Conference in Washington D.C., the keynote speech by NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang will take place at 12:00 PM local time on October 28, 2025 (0:00 AM Beijing time on October 29) at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center.

• The U.S. Supreme Court will hear the Trump tariff case in the first week of November

According to media reports, the U.S. Supreme Court has stated that it will hear oral arguments in the first week of November, reserving one hour for the hearing. The Supreme Court also agreed to the government's request to expedite the appeal process faster than usual. The Trump administration warned that if the Supreme Court waits until June of next year to rule in favor of the lower court judge's opinion, declaring these tariffs illegal, the Treasury Department may be forced to refund $750 billion to $1 trillion in tariffs already collected.

Earnings Reports: A concentrated wave from the seven giants of U.S. stocks

• Google, Meta, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Li Auto, Kweichow Moutai, BYD, Vanke

At the end of October, the U.S. stock market will see the most concentrated wave of earnings reports from the "seven giants," with Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet set to release quarterly results on October 30, followed by Apple and Amazon on October 31.

Microsoft exceeded expectations in both revenue and profit last quarter, driven by strong cloud and AI business, with Azure revenue surging 39%. The company also announced a $30 billion investment in AI infrastructure for the quarter, and the market is eager to see if it can maintain this growth momentum.

After setting a quarterly revenue record last season, Apple's new iPhone 17 has sparked a pre-sale frenzy, and its recovery in the Chinese market has become a focal point. However, investors are also closely watching the structural challenges posed by weak iPad and wearable device sales.

Meta has further raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance amid steady growth in advertising revenue and ongoing losses in Reality Labs, demonstrating its unwavering commitment to AI and the metaverse. Although Amazon reported impressive revenue last quarter, its stock price suffered due to disappointing operating profit guidance, and a recent AWS service outage has cast a shadow over the reliability of its cloud business.

Alphabet is expected to surpass $100 billion in revenue this quarter, with its cloud business growing over 30% and resilient advertising revenue serving as dual engines. This round of earnings reports will not only test the true performance of these giants in the AI race but also set the tone for the overall trend of tech stocks in the fourth quarter.

In addition, Li Auto, Coinbase, Merck, Eli Lilly, and other U.S. stocks will also release earnings reports. In the A-share market, companies such as Kweichow Moutai, BYD, Vanke, and Sinopec will have a concentrated wave of earnings reports.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

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