What happened in the market when the Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening (QT) last time?
Barclays believes that the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the key is whether it will immediately end quantitative tightening (QT). The end of QT in 2019 triggered a rise in risk markets and a decline in the dollar, but the situation may be different this time. Currently, risk markets are showing resilience under pressure from the repurchase market and are positively correlated with the dollar, which means that an early end to QT may not necessarily lead to a significant weakening of the dollar
Barclays believes:
The market generally expects the Federal Reserve (FOMC) to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, but the more critical question is whether the Fed will immediately end QT, given that bank system reserves are close to the "ample level" threshold.
Although in 2019, the signal to end QT triggered a "risk-on/dollar weakness" rally in risk markets, this time the situation may be different. Currently, risk markets are showing stronger resilience in the face of repurchase market pressures and exhibit a stronger positive correlation with the dollar, which means that even if QT ends early, it may not necessarily lead to a significant weakening of the dollar.
