How did quantum computing suddenly become the next battlefield for "national security"?

Quantum computing is rapidly moving from the laboratory to the center of geopolitical games. This technology, which industry insiders predict could achieve significant breakthroughs within five years, can accelerate the development of life-saving drugs and instantly crack all digital encryption systems. As competition between China and the United States intensifies in this field, quantum technology has become another key national security track following semiconductors.

Recently, according to The Wall Street Journal, major U.S. publicly listed quantum computing companies such as D-Wave Quantum Inc., Rigetti Computing Inc., IonQ Inc., and Quantum Computing Inc. may soon receive strategic investments from the government. Although the White House later denied discussions with quantum computing companies, this news has rekindled market optimism towards quantum technology stocks.

Reports indicate that with IonQ announcing a breakthrough in achieving 99.99% gate fidelity, the industry generally believes that it is only three to five years away from the critical turning point of "quantum advantage." The approaching technological tipping point is transforming quantum computing from an academic topic into an urgent national security issue.

The core national security significance of quantum computing lies in its threat to existing encryption systems. Marco Pistoia, Senior Vice President of Global Industry Relations at IonQ, warned that in the future, "attacks on a country are likely to be quantum attacks, cracking sensitive communications of governments, banks, or medical institutions." This has prompted governments around the world to accelerate their layout of post-quantum cryptography and view quantum technology as critical infrastructure.

At the same time, geopolitical factors are injecting urgency into quantum investments. According to a McKinsey report, China has announced over $15.3 billion in government funding for quantum technology, far exceeding the U.S. government's $3.2 billion investment. A report released by Bank of America on Thursday pointed out that the combination of artificial intelligence and quantum computing could open new levels of technological advancement, with AI accelerating quantum development and quantum providing the necessary computing power for AI.

Approaching Technological Breakthroughs Spark Investment Frenzy

The commercialization prospects of quantum computing are accelerating. Rigetti Computing CEO Subodh Kulkarni stated that the industry generally believes it is three to five years away from the critical turning point of "quantum advantage," with some companies having even more aggressive expectations.

Kulkarni defines quantum advantage by four criteria: at least 1,000 quantum bits, at least 99.9% fidelity for two-qubit gates, gate speeds of no more than 15 nanoseconds, and some form of error correction capability. Earlier this week, IonQ announced that it became the "first and only" quantum computing company to achieve 99.99% fidelity for two-qubit gates.

Elizabeth Goldschmidt, a physics professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, pointed out that traditional computers store information in binary bits of 0 or 1, while quantum computers use quantum bits, leveraging subatomic physical rules to process multiple states of information simultaneously, enabling them to solve large-scale optimization problems that traditional computers cannot handleDespite companies like Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing seeing stock price increases of up to 3100% over the past year, these companies have yet to achieve profitability as the technology has not reached the scale and feasibility required for commercialization. Travis Prentice, Chief Investment Officer of Informed Momentum Company, stated:

"Technological advancements are quite rapid, and stock performance has significantly outpaced the market, but when commercial revenue will arrive remains unclear."

Kulkarni predicts that a second inflection point will occur within eight to ten years after achieving quantum advantage—the emergence of fault-tolerant quantum computing, at which point quantum computers will be able to process any application in ways far exceeding traditional computers.

Cryptographic Breaking Ability as a Double-Edged Sword

The most exciting yet concerning capability of quantum computing for governments is its potential for cryptographic breaking. Kulkarni points out that traditional computers would take a thousand years to break simple 128-bit encryption due to the multiple variables that can change simultaneously. However, the design of quantum computers gives them an advantage in solving nearly impossible encryption problems.

Currently, most information uses 128-bit encryption, but Kulkarni believes that quantum computers could even break the most secure version of AES-256 encryption used by advanced organizations such as the military. This encryption relies on the same key for both encryption and decryption, with its security based on the difficulty traditional computers have in cracking the key.

"When governments are hacked, encryption and decryption keys protect the stolen data," Kulkarni said. "The concern is that once quantum computers can relatively easily break encryption keys, that data will be completely open to anyone. This is why governments around the world are interested and worried."

Marco Pistoia, Senior Vice President of Industry Relations at IonQ, stated that in the future, "attacks on a nation are likely to be quantum attacks, decrypting sensitive communications from governments, banks, or healthcare institutions." This threat has prompted the Biden administration to sign the Quantum Computing Cybersecurity Preparedness Act, requiring federal agencies to migrate vulnerable systems to quantum-resistant encryption technologies.

Governments and Enterprises Accelerate Layout

Quantum technology is not a new focus for the U.S. government.

In 2018, Trump signed the National Quantum Initiative Act during his first term, authorizing $1.2 billion in funding for quantum research and development over five years. The Biden administration's 2022 CHIPS and Science Act identified quantum technology as a critical infrastructure area and provided additional funding support.

U.S. tech giants are also deeply involved in the quantum field. On Wednesday, Google's Quantum AI team, a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc., announced that its Willow quantum chip runs algorithms in repeatable experiments 13,000 times faster than traditional computers. NVIDIA has been developing hybrid hardware that allows traditional computers to perform quantum control functions, and its corporate venture capital arm has strategically invested in quantum hardware companies. In August, IBM and AMD announced a collaboration to explore the integration of quantum computing with existing high-performance computingFinancial institutions are also taking action. Earlier this month, JP Morgan announced a $1.5 trillion plan to finance and invest in industries "critical to national economic security and resilience," with quantum computing being one of them.

IonQ recently established a new business unit focused on providing quantum services to the U.S. government and allied agencies. A report released by the Bank of America Research Institute on Thursday noted that the combination of artificial intelligence and quantum computing could unleash new levels of technological advancement, with AI accelerating quantum development while quantum provides the necessary computing power for AI.

Kulkarni emphasized that quantum computing will not replace traditional computers but will coexist with them. "We see the world as a hybrid system," he said. Just as CPUs and GPUs currently work together in data centers to power AI, in the future, quantum processing units will work alongside chips for quantum computing, handling thousands of simultaneously interacting variables—an area that is extremely difficult to program with CPUs and GPUs today.

The U.S. and China have become leaders in the field of quantum computing, and this competition mirrors the battles in the semiconductor and energy industries. According to a McKinsey report, China has announced over $15.3 billion in government funding for quantum technology, far exceeding the U.S. government's $3.2 billion investment. China leads in government funding, while the U.S. maintains an advantage in private sector development and the total number of quantum patents.

Pistoia, who previously served as the global head of quantum computing at JP Morgan and worked in quantum research at IBM, believes that quantum computing will have a "revolutionary impact" on human life. "No country wants to fall behind in the quantum computing race," he said