Dongfang Caifu Securities: Multiple tire companies have issued price increase letters, optimistic about the recovery of demand for all-steel tires

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Dongfang Caifu Securities released a research report stating that, according to the tire business public account, recently, several domestic and foreign companies have issued price increase letters, indicating that tire prices will be adjusted starting in October, with an increase of about 2%-5%, stimulating the replenishment demand from downstream manufacturers. In addition, the recovery of demand for container trucks and road freight is expected to drive the consumption of all-steel tires and increase the replacement demand for all-steel tires. In terms of exports, the preliminary impact of the European anti-dumping investigation on demand is beginning to show. Although the tire industry faced multiple challenges in the first half of the year, including high raw material prices, tariffs, anti-dumping investigations, and intensified domestic competition, overseas construction of factories is still progressing in an orderly manner, continuously increasing the global share of domestic tires.

The main viewpoints of Dongfang Caifu Securities are as follows:

Natural rubber enters the traditional peak season, while prices of other materials remain stable

In September, the tire raw material price index was 90.12, positioned at the 4% historical percentile since 2021. With the arrival of the traditional peak season for natural rubber and improved demand, prices may see a boost, while prices of other materials remain stable. Among them, the average price of butadiene is 9,271.74 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.26% and a year-on-year decrease of 30.98%; the average price of natural rubber is 1,839.57 USD/ton, a month-on-month increase of 2.06% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.77%; the average price of styrene-butadiene rubber is 12,239 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.32% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.14%; the average price of carbon black is 7,500 yuan/ton, unchanged month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 19.35%.

On the production side, domestic output increases month-on-month, and the operating rate remains stable

In August 2025, China's production of rubber tire outer casings was 109 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 11.44% and a month-on-month increase of 15.78%; in September, the average operating rate of the all-steel tire industry was 64.95%, a month-on-month increase of 1.82 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 3.89 percentage points; the average operating rate of the semi-steel tire industry was 71.23%, a month-on-month increase of 0.81 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 8.54 percentage points. USTMA released the 2025 U.S. tire shipment forecast, expecting the total tire shipment volume in the U.S. to be 340.2 million units in 2025. Compared to 2024, the shipment volume of passenger car, light truck, and truck tires is expected to change by -2.0%, -1.4%, and -8.0%, respectively, totaling a decrease of 1.4 million units; the shipment volume of replacement tires is expected to change by 1.2%, 2.5%, and 3.7%, respectively, totaling an increase of 440,000 units.

On the export side, domestic exports decrease month-on-month, while Vietnam's exports to the U.S. surge year-on-year

In August, China exported 62.99 million new inflatable rubber tires, a year-on-year increase of 1.84% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.51%. In terms of Southeast Asia's export situation, for Vietnam, in September 2025, the export value of rubber products was 111 million USD, a month-on-month decrease of 8% and a year-on-year increase of 19%; the export value to the U.S. that month was 49 million USD, a month-on-month decrease of 3% and a year-on-year increase of 43%. For Thailand, in August, the monthly export volume of passenger car tires was 7.184 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 13% and a year-on-year decrease of 10%; the monthly export volume of commercial vehicle tires was 2.621 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 9% and a year-on-year decrease of 2%. That month, the export of passenger car tires to the U.S. was 4.0719 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 14% and a year-on-year decrease of 5%; the export of commercial vehicle tires was 1.3459 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 6% and a year-on-year increase of 10% On the demand side, the semi-steel market remains stable, and full-steel demand is expected to recover

According to Michelin's September market observation, in September, global demand for passenger car and light truck original equipment tires decreased by 2% year-on-year, while replacement tire demand increased by 1% year-on-year; global (excluding China) demand for commercial vehicle original equipment tires remained flat year-on-year, and replacement tire demand increased by 2% year-on-year. In terms of passenger car and light truck tires, China remains the core engine of cumulative growth in original equipment demand, driven by public subsidy policies and the export market.

From the perspective of September's monthly demand, China's original equipment market saw a slight year-on-year decline, while Europe experienced a year-on-year decrease in demand due to the impact of the automotive industry. The replacement market showed regional differentiation, with North America experiencing a decline in sales scale, while demand in Europe and China continued to rise. The original equipment demand for commercial vehicle tires is generally under pressure; on a monthly basis, the North American market remains sluggish, Europe shows a slight rebound, and the replacement market in South America achieved a significant year-on-year increase of 13%. In addition, under the promotion of domestic policies, heavy truck sales continue to grow, coupled with favorable road transport demand, full-steel demand is expected to gradually recover.

On the target side

We are optimistic about companies that actively engage in overseas capacity layout and possess certain overseas competitive strength. It is recommended to pay attention to Sailun Group (601058.SH), Zhongce Rubber (603049.SH), SENTURY (002984.SZ), and Linglong Tyre (601966.SH).

Risk factors

Investment destination policy environment risk; raw material cost increase risk; tariff and anti-dumping tax rate risk