Breakfast | As trade tensions ease, U.S. stocks hit new highs! The market awaits tech earnings reports

Market Overview

The global trade situation has eased, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates this week. The three major U.S. stock indices hit new highs, with the S&P 500 recording its best three-day gain since May. The market is awaiting earnings reports from major tech stocks this week, with tech stocks leading the rally. The seven tech giants all surged, with Tesla briefly rising over 6%. Semiconductor stocks also saw widespread gains, with Qualcomm soaring 20% at one point, closing up 11.09%.

Long-term U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield dropping 3.65 basis points, returning below 4%. Risk aversion sentiment has eased, leading to a slight decline in short-term U.S. Treasuries. The dollar fluctuated downwards by 0.16%. The renminbi recorded its largest increase in two months. The Argentine peso rose over 3% against the dollar, with Milei winning in the Argentine midterm elections.

Cryptocurrencies surged, but the gains narrowed towards the end of trading in New York on Monday, with Ethereum rising 4.7% at one point over 24 hours, then falling about 3% from its daily high. As risk aversion demand weakened, gold dropped below $4,000, down 3.2% from last Friday's closing price. London copper rose 1.2%, closing at a historic high, for the first time above $11,000.

In the Asian session, the Shanghai Composite Index was just a step away from 4,000 points, reaching a high of 3,999.07 points during the session, with storage chips and CPOs surging in turn, the Hang Seng Index rising nearly 2%, and government bonds rebounding across the board.

Key News

Wang Yi spoke on the phone with U.S. Secretary of State Rubio: hoping both sides can move towards each other and prepare for high-level interactions between China and the U.S.

Pan Gongsheng: The People's Bank of China will resume open market transactions of government bonds and continue to crack down on virtual currency speculation. Zhu Hexin: Focusing on trade facilitation, the foreign exchange bureau will introduce 9 new policy measures. Wu Qing: The China Securities Regulatory Commission will deepen the reform of the Growth Enterprise Market and focus on the role of medium- and long-term funds as a "ballast" and "stabilizer." Li Yunzhe: Strengthening funding supply for major projects to promote the expansion and upgrading of consumption, centered around the strategy of expanding domestic demand.

Trump extended the U.S.-Mexico trade negotiation period, stating that he would not restart U.S.-Canada negotiations for "some time." The U.S. reached a trade agreement with several Southeast Asian countries, but "details are insufficient, and subsequent negotiations will determine whether key industries such as clothing and electronics can receive reductions."

The London silver market saw liquidity ease, with physical leasing rates significantly dropping. Copper prices are nearing historical highs, driven by trade easing and supply disruptions.

Qualcomm soared 20% at one point, launching artificial intelligence chips to compete with Nvidia in the data center market.

AMD turned positive during the session, with reports of a $1 billion AI collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy to build two supercomputers.

Tesla's "World Simulator" is here: learning 500 years of human driving experience in one day, with Optimus Prime able to share the same "brain."

Reports indicate that Amazon will announce its largest layoffs in history, affecting up to 30,000 employees in core departments such as cloud computing

PCB industry chain explosion: Shenghong Technology Q3 net profit of 1.102 billion yuan, aggressive capacity expansion, construction projects surged by 1283.08%.

Domestic custom chip leader Xinyuan Co., Ltd. Q3 revenue increased by 78.38% year-on-year, net loss narrowed to 26.8511 million yuan.

Northern Rare Earth Q3 net profit increased by 69.48% year-on-year, revenue increased by 33.32%.

Market Closing Report

US and European stock markets: S&P 500 rose 1.23%, closing at 6,875.16 points. Dow Jones rose 0.71%, closing at 47,544.59 points. Nasdaq rose 1.86%, closing at 23,637.456 points. European STOXX 600 index closed up 0.21%, closing at 576.99 points.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.18%, closing at 3,996.94 points. Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.51%, closing at 13,489.40 points. ChiNext Index rose 1.98%, closing at 3,234.45 points.

Bond market: The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond fell by 0.77 basis points, closing at 3.9930%. The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond rose by 2.32 basis points, closing at 3.5032%.

Commodities: WTI December crude oil futures fell by 0.31%, closing at $61.31 per barrel. Brent December crude oil futures fell by 0.49%, closing at $65.62 per barrel. COMEX gold futures fell by 3.12%, closing at $4,008.40 per ounce. COMEX silver futures fell by 3.54%, closing at $46.875 per ounce.

News Details

Global Highlights

Wang Yi spoke with US Secretary of State Rubio by phone: hopes both sides can move towards each other and prepare for high-level interactions between China and the US. Wang Yi stated that President Xi Jinping and President Trump are world-class leaders, and their long-term interactions and mutual respect have become the most valuable strategic asset in China-US relations.

Pan Gongsheng: The People's Bank of China will resume open market transactions of government bonds and continue to crack down on virtual currency speculation. Pan Gongsheng stated that in recent years, virtual currencies issued by market institutions, especially stablecoins, have emerged continuously, but overall they are still in the early stages of development. International financial organizations and central banks generally hold a cautious attitude towards the development of stablecoins. In the next step, the People's Bank of China will work with law enforcement agencies to continue cracking down on the operation and speculation of virtual currencies within the country, maintain economic and financial order, and closely track and dynamically assess the development of overseas stablecoins Zhu Hexin: Focusing on Trade Facilitation, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange will introduce 9 new policy measures. Zhu Hexin stated that focusing on trade facilitation, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange will soon introduce 9 new policy measures to further promote innovative development in trade. The main measures include expanding the pilot scope of high-level opening-up for cross-border trade and the types of netting settlement businesses, optimizing foreign exchange fund settlement for new trade entities, and relaxing management of service trade advance payment businesses.

Wu Qing: The CSRC will deepen the reform of the Growth Enterprise Market and focus on the role of medium- and long-term funds as a "ballast" and "stabilizer". Wu Qing stated that the implementation of the deepening reform of the Growth Enterprise Market will be initiated, setting listing standards that better align with the characteristics of innovative and entrepreneurial enterprises in emerging fields and future industries, providing more precise and inclusive financial services for new industries, new business formats, and new technologies. Further solidifying the foundation and consolidating the internal basis for market stability. A refinancing shelf issuance system will be introduced at an appropriate time to further broaden the support channels for mergers and acquisitions. Listed companies will be urged to improve governance and increase dividend repurchases and holdings, using real money to reward shareholders.

Li Yunze: Focusing on Expanding Domestic Demand Strategy, strengthening funding supply for major projects, and promoting consumption expansion and upgrading. Li Yunze stated that efforts will be made to enhance the adaptability of economic finance to better promote sustained and healthy economic and social development. A new financial service model will be promoted that coordinates direct and indirect financing, balances investment in goods and investment in people, matches financing terms with industrial development, and links domestic and international markets.

Trump extends the US-Mexico trade negotiation period, stating that he will not restart US-Canada negotiations for "some time". Mexican President López Obrador stated that Trump has agreed to extend the deadline for reaching an agreement on trade, security, and immigration issues between the two countries. The Mexican peso hit a daily high. Due to an advertisement sponsored by Ontario Province against tariffs, Trump announced the termination of US-Canada trade negotiations late Thursday night, and on Saturday stated that he would raise tariffs on Canadian imports by 10%, and on Monday expressed that he did not want to meet Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau. Trudeau stated on Monday that he is ready to restart negotiations at any time, and has not spoken to Trump since the negotiations were interrupted, with Canada not receiving details on the implementation of the increased tariffs. Ontario Premier Ford stated that he would never apologize for the related advertisement.

The US reaches trade agreements with multiple Southeast Asian countries, but "lacks details," with subsequent negotiations determining whether key industries such as clothing and electronics can receive exemptions. The US signed trade agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia and reached a framework agreement with Thailand and Vietnam. According to the agreements, Southeast Asian countries will reduce tariffs on US automobiles, agricultural products, etc., and commit to purchasing Boeing aircraft. In exchange, the US will exempt tariffs on certain goods from these countries Analysts point out that although countries have agreed in principle to reduce tariffs, subsequent negotiations will determine whether key export industries such as clothing, footwear, and electronics can obtain tariff reductions from the United States.

Selling U.S. Treasuries and buying gold is “not a wise move in the medium to long term”! Morgan Stanley's interest rate team: U.S. Treasuries will eventually “shine”. Recently, the amount of U.S. Treasuries held by foreign official institutions under the custody of the New York Fed has decreased by nearly $155 billion, while gold prices have soared over 25% during the same period. Morgan Stanley's report speculates that this portion of funds may have flowed from U.S. Treasuries to gold. However, in the medium to long term, selling U.S. Treasuries to buy gold may not be a wise move. Historical data shows that in any decade over the past 50 years, the total return rate of gold has lagged behind that of U.S. Treasuries.

After the sharp decline in gold, it is no longer a “cost-effective global asset” in the short term. Shenwan Hongyuan points out that gold is no longer a wise choice in the short term, as the current high volatility severely erodes its risk-return ratio. Allocative funds should wait for a dip in the $3,800-$3,900 per ounce range to enter, while trading funds should wait for volatility to drop to low levels before entering the market. In the medium to long term, gold still has allocation value, with quantitative models indicating that the gold price center will be at $4,814 per ounce in 2026.

Liquidity in the London silver market eases, physical leasing rates drop significantly. The liquidity squeeze in the London silver market has eased, with leasing rates falling from a historical high of 34.9% in early October to 5.6%. As supply concerns have cooled, silver prices dropped by 1.7% on Monday, currently at $47.95 per ounce. Previously, insufficient liquidity had caused London silver prices to exceed those in New York, prompting traders to rarely airlift silver for arbitrage.

Copper prices approach historical highs, trade easing combined with supply disruptions boosts the market. This year, production disruptions from South America to Indonesia have intensified market concerns over copper supply. Additionally, the weak dollar this year has created a favorable environment for rising copper prices. On Monday, London copper rose by 1.2% to $11,094 per ton, just about $10 short of the historical high set in May 2024.

Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon's earnings reports this week, the market is focused on just one number. This week, the market's focus on the earnings reports of U.S. tech giants is their “capital expenditure” figures. Tech companies are competing to invest huge amounts of money in building AI supercomputing centers. Analysts expect total capital expenditures of large tech companies to grow by 24% next year to nearly $550 billion. Investors will closely monitor whether these massive investments can translate into actual growth to balance investment and returns Qualcomm's stock surged 20% during trading, launching AI chips to compete with Nvidia in the data center market. Qualcomm is entering the AI data center market with new chip products aimed at challenging Nvidia's market dominance. The company's new products (including the AI200, which will ship next year, and the AI250, expected in 2027) will be offered as standalone components, accelerator cards, or as part of complete server cabinets. The new products provide up to 768GB of memory, focusing on energy efficiency and AI inference tasks. Following this news, Qualcomm's stock price rose 20% during trading, marking the largest intraday increase since 2019.

AMD turned positive during trading, reportedly reaching a $1 billion AI collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy to build two supercomputers. The first supercomputer, named Lux, is built on AMD's MI355X AI chip and is planned to be completed and operational within the next six months. The second supercomputer, Discovery, will use AMD's MI430 series chips, expected to be delivered in 2028 and operational in 2029. The U.S. Secretary of Energy stated that these systems will "greatly accelerate" advancements in nuclear and fusion energy, defense and national security technologies, and drug development.

Tesla's "World Simulator" is here: Learning 500 years of human driving experience in one day, Optimus can share the same "brain". Tesla has unveiled a neural network-based "World Simulator," a realistic virtual training ground designed for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Optimus robot projects. It can generate continuous, multi-perspective driving scenarios, allowing AI to learn the equivalent of 500 years of human driving experience in a single day, significantly reducing reliance on real-world road testing. The simulator can be used for closed-loop evaluations, recreating hazardous scenarios, and creating extreme "long-tail" tests, which are key to achieving end-to-end general AI.

Report: Amazon will announce its largest layoffs in history, up to 30,000, affecting core departments like cloud computing. On Monday local time, media reports citing informed sources revealed that Amazon plans to cut corporate jobs in several key departments. The layoffs could begin as early as Tuesday and will affect nearly all business units. This round of layoffs is part of a cost-cutting plan implemented by CEO Jassy. Jassy stated in June that as the company increasingly utilizes AI, the workforce may shrink.

After studying 30 market bubbles over 400 years, the $54 billion hedge fund Coatue remains bullish on AI. The hedge fund Coatue has researched over 30 bubble events in 400 years and concluded that betting on AI is still the right move Coatue believes that the current speed of AI hype, low leverage, and valuation levels are fundamentally different from historical bubbles. The probability of an AI boom scenario is two-thirds, with strong long-term fundamentals expected to support substantial investment through AI-driven profit growth over the next 5 to 10 years.

PCB Industry Chain Explosion: Shenghong Technology's Q3 net profit is 1.102 billion yuan, with aggressive capacity expansion and construction projects surging by 1283.08%. Shenghong Technology's Q3 revenue reached 5.086 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.95%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.102 billion yuan, a staggering year-on-year increase of 260.52%. The company's capacity expansion is aggressive, with construction projects skyrocketing from 257 million yuan at the beginning of the year to 3.548 billion yuan, an increase of 1283.08%.

Domestic Custom Chip Leader XinYuan Co., Ltd. Q3 Revenue Increased by 78.38% Year-on-Year, Net Loss Narrowed to 26.8511 million yuan. Thanks to the continuous conversion of orders on hand and the explosion of demand related to artificial intelligence, XinYuan Co., Ltd. achieved a record high in Q3 operating revenue, while net losses decreased by over 70% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. Q3 revenue from chip design business increased by 80.23% year-on-year; revenue from mass production business surged by 157.84% year-on-year, becoming the main driver of total revenue.

Northern Rare Earth Q3 Net Profit Increased by 69.48% Year-on-Year, Revenue Increased by 33.32%. Rare earth producer Northern Rare Earth achieved a revenue growth of 33.32% in Q3, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 610 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.48%. In the first three quarters, the company's net profit soared by 280% year-on-year, and sales of rare earth metal products increased by 23.50% year-on-year.

Domestic Macro

China's September profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 21.6% year-on-year, with significant driving effects from high-tech manufacturing. From January to September, profits of the equipment manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 9.4% year-on-year, exceeding the average level of all industrial enterprises above designated size by 6.2 percentage points, contributing 3.4 percentage points to the profit growth of all industrial enterprises above designated size; the driving effect of high-tech manufacturing is significant, with profits of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increasing by 8.7% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.7 percentage points compared to January-August.

CSRC: Comprehensive optimization of the financing and securities lending regulatory system, further strengthening the regulation of program trading. The CSRC mentioned the comprehensive optimization of the financing and securities lending regulatory system. It will further strengthen the regulation of financing and securities lending business, improve the rules for financing and securities lending, enhance the transparency and fairness of financing and securities lending business, and effectively increase investor protection efforts. It will also further strengthen the regulation of program trading Increase the information verification efforts for algorithmic trading reports, improve the standards for monitoring abnormal trading, and strengthen targeted trading monitoring to maintain the fairness of market transactions.

CSRC: Clarifying the Applicable Rules for Short-term Trading of Foreign Public Funds, Supporting Domestic Institutions to Provide Investment Advisory Services for Foreign Capital. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) stated that it has clarified the applicable rules for short-term trading of foreign public funds. It grants foreign public funds the same treatment as domestic public funds in calculating the short-term trading shareholding ratio based on product account dimensions, facilitating large overseas asset management institutions to conduct investments. The CSRC will accelerate the introduction of rules for securities and fund investment advisory services, supporting domestic licensed institutions to provide securities investment advisory services for qualified foreign investors.

Subtle Signals from the New Round of Trade Negotiations. According to Minsheng Macro, the "framework agreement" resembles earlier agreements reached between Europe and the United States (lacking details), rather than the previous Phase One agreement. The significance of the framework agreement lies in clarifying the "direction and order" for solving problems. Previously, the most fundamental obstacle to advancing bilateral relations was the unclear sequence of problem-solving and bargaining exchanges. By clarifying the order of resolving issues such as tariffs and rare earths, it lays the foundation for subsequent negotiations. This significantly reduces the risk of short-term relationship derailment and paves the way for a comprehensive trade agreement that may be reached early next year.

Domestic Companies

Meituan's Largest Bond Issuance in History, $3 Billion, to Supplement Ammunition for the "Takeout War". According to media reports, Meituan aims to sell approximately $2 billion in U.S. dollar notes and an equivalent of $1 billion in offshore RMB notes. This issuance may be pushed to the market as early as this Tuesday, but specific details may be adjusted based on investor feedback. This year, industry giants including Alibaba and JD.com have launched significant discounts and incentive measures, intensifying market competition and putting pressure on Meituan's stock performance.

Meituan's Video Generation Model is Here, Launching with Open Source SOTA. Meituan's latest open-source SOTA video model is named LongCat-Video, with 13.6B parameters, supporting text-to-video and image-to-video generation, with video lengths of up to several minutes. Evaluation shows that the model's capabilities are at the top level among open-source models, with some core dimensions even comparable to Google's latest and strongest closed-source model, Veo3.

Hengrui Medicine's Q3 Revenue Increased by 12.7% Year-on-Year, with Increased Cash from Drug Sales and Overseas Licensing Advance Payments. Under the company's dual strategy of innovation and internationalization, Hengrui Medicine achieved growth in both revenue and profit in Q3. Meanwhile, Hengrui Medicine's R&D expenses remain high, with several innovative drugs making progress; currently, the company's application for the marketing authorization of Fluorouracil Capsules has been accepted by the National Medical Products Administration

Overseas Macro

IMF Warns: US Debt Ratio Will Soar Above 143%! According to IMF forecasts, by 2030, the total government debt of the United States as a percentage of GDP will soar more than 20 percentage points from the current level, reaching 143.4%, setting a new historical record since the pandemic. By 2030, the government debt ratios of Italy and Greece are expected to decline, while the US debt-to-GDP ratio will continue to rise. The US holds the status of the global reserve currency, with borrowing capacity far exceeding that of European countries, making this turning point symbolically significant.

Since US Legislation in July, Stablecoin Usage Has Surged by 70%! Following the passage of the US "Genius Act," stablecoin payment volumes have skyrocketed, with August trading volumes exceeding $10 billion, of which inter-company transfers accounted for nearly two-thirds, becoming the main driving force. The regulatory clarity provided by the act has prompted widespread adoption of stablecoins for cross-border payments to avoid delays in the traditional banking system, with an expected annual payment scale reaching $122 billion.

US Treasury Secretary Basant Affirms "Sanae Economics," Does Not Mention Yen Depreciation. US Treasury Secretary Basant praised the expansionary fiscal policy of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki and Basant held their first face-to-face meeting, during which they did not discuss the details of monetary policy or the specifics of the joint foreign exchange statement signed by the US and Japan in September. Analysts suggest that this may have relieved Japan's concerns, as they were previously worried that Basant might mention the issue of yen weakness.

Why Didn't Japanese Residents Enter the Market That Year? Japan's experience in the 1990s shows that a purely low-interest-rate environment and periodic stock market rises are not enough to drive sustained capital inflows from residents. Despite three rounds of bull markets with gains exceeding 40%, residents ultimately net sold stocks, primarily due to deteriorating income expectations, pressure on the pension system increasing precautionary savings, and high debt burdens suppressing risk appetite and market entry capacity.

The World's First Yen-Pegged Stablecoin Launched in Japan. This initiative is symbolically significant in Japan, where cash and credit cards dominate, indicating that Japan's financial infrastructure is moving towards blockchain and digitalization. However, some policymakers express concerns that stablecoins may encourage capital flows away from the regulated banking system and potentially weaken the role of commercial banks in global payment flows.

Unexpected Victory in the Midterm Elections, Milei's Reforms in Argentina Will Continue, US Avoids "Bailout Losses"** **According to reports, the Freedom Advances party led by Argentine President Milei received 41% of the votes in the midterm elections, winning 64 seats in the House of Representatives, and is expected to reach the one-third seat threshold to protect the president's veto power. Analysts say this victory has garnered public support for its radical austerity reforms, reversing the dismal results of the September local elections. The $20 billion currency swap support previously provided by the U.S. has paid off.

OPEC+ representatives expect a slight increase in production for the third consecutive month in December, with an increase of 137,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ is expected to slightly restore some crude oil production in December, which is the baseline scenario for the key member meeting of the organization this weekend. OPEC+ currently anticipates discussing an increase of 137,000 barrels per day for the third consecutive month, which will be addressed in a video conference on November 2.

Overseas Companies

Report: iPhone 18 Pro may see dual upgrades, with 48 million pixels and a larger aperture. Although specific technical parameters have not yet been announced, the aperture value is expected to reach at least F/2.0, better than the F/2.2 aperture of the iPhone 17 Pro series. It is reported that the basic version of the iPhone 18 is not expected to appear at Apple's September 2026 launch event, but will be delayed until early 2027, possibly paving the way for Apple's first foldable iPhone.

OpenAI "independently completes" a transaction worth up to $1.5 trillion, without hiring investment banks or law firms, "focusing on computing power, financial details to be discussed later". OpenAI relied solely on its core executive team, including Altman, the president, and the CFO, to lead the completion of a $1.5 trillion chip supply deal. The team prioritized technical aspects, adopting a "get the chips first" strategy, with financial and legal details to be refined later. From the $11.9 billion computing power equity swap model with CoreWeave to the $350 billion chip procurement from NVIDIA and the $300 billion data center project with Oracle, OpenAI has demonstrated astonishing execution efficiency, reflecting the urgency of the AI computing power competition overshadowing traditional business prudence.

Anthropic signs a major deal with Google Cloud: Google demonstrates strength, Amazon faces pressure. The AI newcomer Anthropic has reached a "milestone" agreement worth hundreds of billions of dollars with Google Cloud, which is expected to bring Google Cloud annual revenues of $9 billion to $13 billion by 2027. Although Amazon Web Services (AWS) remains Anthropic's primary cloud service provider, its failure to secure key incremental computing power orders has raised market concerns about its long-term competitiveness Pharmaceutical giant Novartis agrees to the largest acquisition in history, acquiring "rare disease expert" Avidity for $12 billion. Novartis is acquiring rare disease biotechnology company Avidity for $12 billion, marking the company's largest acquisition in over a decade, with a premium of 46%. Avidity's three drugs in development are expected to be launched before 2030, with peak annual sales potentially reaching billions of dollars, which will help Novartis address the patent cliff. This transaction will increase Novartis's compound annual growth rate from 5% to 6% for the period of 2024-2029.

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