In the next 5 years, it will become the main channel for users' "product discovery"! AI agents are reshaping the e-commerce landscape

Wallstreetcn
2025.10.28 02:16
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Citigroup's report points out that a new wave of "agent-based e-commerce" is rising, with AI agents expected to dominate user "product discovery" within five years, and the penetration rate is expected to reach a tipping point by 2026. It covers the entire shopping process from "discovery," "research," to "purchase." As giants like Amazon and Google actively lay out their strategies, the e-commerce game rules for online advertising and brand competition may be rewritten

Author: Long Yue

Source: Hard AI

AI agents are reshaping the e-commerce landscape.

According to a recent research report from Citigroup, a wave of "Agentic Commerce" driven by AI is emerging, which will not only change the way users shop but also reshape the entire competitive landscape and value chain of e-commerce. The report predicts that AI agents will become the main channel for users' "product discovery" within five years, with 2026 potentially being the tipping point for market penetration.

More than just "one-click ordering"

According to the definition in the Citigroup report, Agentic Commerce is far more than having AI assistants complete transactions. Its core covers the entire shopping process from "discovery," "research," to "purchase." AI agents can assist users at any stage, with the ultimate goal of representing users and autonomously completing purchases under preset criteria.

The report cites experts Jason Goldberg and Scot Wingo, who believe this is the first major innovation in the e-commerce field in over a decade. Currently, OpenAI's "Instant Checkout," Amazon's Rufus, Walmart's Sparky, and Google's integrated Gemini shopping tool are merely early prototypes of this transformation.

Is the 2026 tipping point approaching?

Currently, product discovery is mainly controlled by Google, Amazon, and social platforms like Meta and TikTok. However, experts in the Citigroup report predict that within five years, AI agents will become the primary driving force behind product discovery.

The pace of change could be astonishing. Expert Scot Wingo predicts that during the 2025 holiday shopping season, the penetration rate of Agentic Commerce could reach 20%. Jason Goldberg makes an even bolder prediction, stating that this figure could reach 50% in 2026.

This viewpoint is supported by a recent survey from Epsilon, which shows that 23% of consumers plan to use AI/chatbots for shopping this holiday season, with the proportion rising to 44% among Generation Z.

The titans' battle for control

The core battleground of this transformation lies in "Owning the Glass," which refers to control over applications, browsers, and operating systems. Major players have begun to position themselves:

  • Amazon: The report indicates that Amazon is currently adopting a "walled garden" strategy to prevent AI agents from scraping its website data, protecting its core review and content assets. The report believes that Agentic Commerce does not pose a "survival threat" to Amazon. Its robust logistics system, Prime membership base, and catalog of over 1 billion products constitute a solid moat.

  • Google: The report asserts that Google's moat in the e-commerce sector remains strong. Its advantages lie in the Gemini large model, the Shopping Graph product catalog with over 50 billion product listings, and its leading position in product discovery. By integrating Gemini into the Chrome browser and launching A2A & AP2 agent protocols, Google is actively responding to competition

  • OpenAI & Walmart: OpenAI has gained a first-mover advantage with over 800 million weekly active users (WAU) and partnerships with Etsy, Shopify, and Walmart. Walmart views its collaboration with OpenAI as a significant move to gain incremental sales channels and challenge Amazon's position. Although OpenAI's "instant checkout" currently only supports single-item transactions, the report anticipates that multi-cart functionality will be launched soon.

Game Rules or Rewrite

The rise of agent-based e-commerce will profoundly impact the online advertising ecosystem. The report emphasizes that traditional search engine optimization (SEO) is evolving into Agent-based Commerce Optimization (ACO). As AI agents become more involved in decision-making, advertising budgets will shift from downstream conversion stages to upstream "brand discovery" stages.

This means that the importance of brands will not diminish but rather increase. In AI-automated shopping decisions, strong brand recognition will become a key factor influencing AI recommendations and user choices.

For investors, this means a need to reassess the value of companies with strong brand assets in the future e-commerce ecosystem.

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