WanLian Security: Inverter exports have overall declined month-on-month; focus on leading companies with improved overseas layout and market position

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, WanLian Securities has released a research report stating that in the long term, the global installed capacity of renewable energy is rapidly increasing, grid instability is rising, and the demand for energy storage is expected to continue to grow. By region: (1) The impact of household storage in Europe is weakening, the installed capacity of large storage is accelerating, replacing the incremental household storage, and the overall market is expected to gradually warm up; (2) The demand for large storage installation in the United States is significant, and the grid connection of energy storage projects is expected to accelerate, driving market scale growth. Currently, the impact of tariffs in the U.S. has weakened, and exports are expected to rebound; (3) Emerging markets are growing rapidly, with ample household storage space in Asia, Africa, South America, and Oceania, which is expected to continuously provide new momentum for the growth of energy storage demand; (4) Investment in renewable energy in the Middle East is increasing, the construction of energy storage projects is accelerating, and the installed capacity of large storage in Saudi Arabia and the UAE is expected to maintain stable growth. It is recommended to pay attention to leading stocks with a complete overseas layout and a leading market position.

The main viewpoints of WanLian Securities are as follows:

Core Viewpoint

On October 20, 2025, the General Administration of Customs released the inverter export data for September 2025. In September 2025, China's inverter export amount was 5.067 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 19.37%, a year-on-year increase of 4.60%, with an expanded month-on-month decline and a slight recovery in year-on-year growth.

From January to September 2025, China's cumulative inverter export amount was 48.322 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.30%. By region, the structural adjustment in the Asian market continues, with a month-on-month decline in exports and a slight year-on-year decrease; European exports have significantly declined month-on-month, with the UK market performing well; North American demand is weak, and the export scale continues to shrink; the Latin American market has overall adjusted, maintaining high year-on-year growth; the African market is differentiated, with South Africa performing well while Nigeria has seen a month-on-month decline but maintains high year-on-year growth; Oceania remains at a high level, with continued export momentum. Overall, the regional differentiation of inverter exports in September has intensified, with structural adjustments occurring in multiple regions, and the Oceania market performing well with sustained high prosperity.

By Arrival Region

Asia: The market continues structural adjustments, with relatively good performance in the UAE and India. In September 2025, China's inverter export amount to Asia was 1.695 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 12.70%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.48%, with the overall export scale slightly declining month-on-month. By country, in September 2025, China's inverter export amounts to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, India, and Pakistan were 10 million, 281 million, 265 million, and 83 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -80.56%, +85.18%, +48.99%, and -55.06%.

Overall, the Asian market continues structural adjustments, with increasing internal differentiation. The Middle East market is highly volatile, with significant declines in Saudi exports, down over 90% month-on-month; UAE exports are fluctuating at a high level, down 31% month-on-month while maintaining high year-on-year growth; the Indian market has a short-term adjustment, down month-on-month while maintaining high year-on-year growth; the Pakistani market remains weak, with both month-on-month and year-on-year declines in exports.

Europe: Exports have significantly declined month-on-month and slightly decreased year-on-year. In September 2025, China's inverter export amount to Europe was 1.881 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 30.11%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.51%, with a clear month-on-month drop and a slight year-on-year decline. By country, in September 2025, China's inverter export amounts to Germany, the Netherlands, the UK, and Poland were 297 million, 862 million, 127 million, CNY 54 million, with year-on-year changes of -9.01%, -8.56%, +33.19%, -70.04%. Among them, exports to Germany fell month-on-month and slightly decreased year-on-year; exports to the Netherlands saw a significant month-on-month adjustment and a slight year-on-year decline; exports to the UK rebounded both month-on-month and year-on-year, showing strong performance; exports to Poland significantly declined both month-on-month and year-on-year, with the largest drop.

Other regions: North America and Latin America markets adjusted, while exports to Oceania remained highly prosperous. North America: Exports continued to decline, with both month-on-month and year-on-year decreases. In September 2025, China's inverter exports to North America amounted to CNY 151 million, with a month-on-month change of -16.9% and a year-on-year change of -24.84%. Among them, in September 2025, China's inverter exports to the United States amounted to CNY 138 million, with a month-on-month change of -10.81% and a year-on-year change of -24.90%. Overall, demand in the North American market remains weak, and export scale continues to shrink compared to last month.

Latin America: The overall market adjusted, maintaining high growth year-on-year. In September 2025, China's inverter exports to Latin America amounted to CNY 529 million, with a month-on-month change of -5.07% and a year-on-year change of +36.60%. By country, in September 2025, China's inverter exports to Brazil and Mexico amounted to CNY 202 million and CNY 74 million, with year-on-year changes of +7.61% and -19.02%, respectively. Brazil experienced significant short-term fluctuations, with a large month-on-month decline; Mexico saw a slight month-on-month decline.

Africa: Exports to South Africa overall rebounded, while exports to Nigeria maintained high year-on-year growth. In September 2025, China's inverter exports to Africa amounted to CNY 373 million, with a month-on-month change of -13.42% and a year-on-year change of +22.69%. Among them, in September 2025, China's inverter exports to South Africa and Nigeria amounted to CNY 110 million and CNY 106 million, with month-on-month changes of +25.65% and -1.97%, and year-on-year changes of +88.49% and +48.61%, respectively. Overall, the South African market rebounded, achieving high growth both month-on-month and year-on-year, while Nigeria's exports remained stable, with a slight month-on-month decline and high year-on-year growth.

Oceania: Export amounts remained high, with a slight month-on-month adjustment and continued high year-on-year growth. In September 2025, China's inverter exports to Oceania amounted to CNY 456 million, with a month-on-month change of -7.17% and a year-on-year change of +288.29%. Among them, in September 2025, China's inverter exports to Australia amounted to CNY 447 million, with a month-on-month change of -4.34% and a year-on-year change of +305.75%. Overall, the Oceania market maintained high prosperity in exports, with strong growth momentum.

By shipping origin

Exports from Guangdong and Anhui decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, while Zhejiang and Jiangsu maintained year-on-year growth. In September 2025, China's inverter export amounts from Guangdong, Zhejiang, Anhui, and Jiangsu were CNY 182.5 million, CNY 136.5 million, CNY 46.4 million, and CNY 68.6 million, with month-on-month changes of -19.40%, -17.30%, -38.34%, and -17.36%, and year-on-year changes of -2.78%, +10.69%, -13.68%, and +59.32%, respectively. From the provincial performance, Guangdong's exports declined month-on-month and slightly year-on-year; Zhejiang and Jiangsu's exports fell month-on-month but maintained year-on-year growth; Anhui's exports decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year Note: The main inverter companies in each province are as follows: Guangdong (Sungrow Power Supply, Hoymiles, Huawei); Jiangsu (GOODWE, Sineng); Zhejiang (Deye, Ginlong Technologies, Airo Energy, YN Technology, Hoymiles); Anhui (Sungrow Power Supply).

Risk Factors: Overseas market demand is lower than expected, changes in trade policies, extreme weather impacts, intensified industry competition, product price decline, etc