Europe's September car sales soar: BYD sales surge by 398%, Tesla sales decline by 10%

The European automotive market welcomed its third consecutive month of growth in September, with sales surging primarily driven by demand for more affordable electric vehicle models.

According to data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) on Tuesday, new car registrations in Europe increased by 11% year-on-year in September, reaching 1.24 million units. This growth was fueled by strong performances in sales of fully electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, both of which saw a combined increase of one-third, with deliveries of plug-in hybrid models skyrocketing by 62%.

Among major automakers, Renault Group and Stellantis performed well, while BYD's sales surged by 398%, with its market share rising from 0.4% in the same period last year to 2%. In stark contrast, Tesla's sales declined by 10%, with its market share squeezed to 3.2%.

Despite the impressive September data, this growth momentum may be difficult to sustain. The European automotive industry still faces multiple challenges, including a slowdown in demand for high-end electric vehicles, uncertainties surrounding the 2035 ban on fuel vehicle sales, and increasingly tense trade relations, all of which cast a shadow over the market's future prospects.

Acceleration of Electrification Transformation, Affordable Models as Growth Engine

The core driving force behind the growth of the European car market in September came from the accelerated electrification transformation, particularly the popularity of affordable models. During the month, sales of fully electric vehicles (EVs) grew by 22%, while sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) saw a significant increase of 62%. Together, these two types of vehicles accounted for nearly one-third of new car registrations in the region.

Strong demand for more affordable models, such as the Skoda Elroq crossover from the Volkswagen Group and the Renault Group's R5 compact car, was a key factor driving sales growth.

In the five major markets of Europe, new car deliveries all saw an increase. Notably, the UK and Germany experienced particularly significant growth, reaching 14% and 13%, respectively.

Some Happy, Some Sad: Divergent Performances of BYD and Tesla

While the overall market is improving, the performance of major automotive brands shows significant divergence. BYD emerged as the biggest winner, with its September sales soaring by 398%, and its market share jumping from 0.4% a year ago to 2%.

Major automotive groups in Europe also performed robustly. Renault Group's sales increased by 15.2%, Stellantis by 11.5%, and Volkswagen Group by 9.7%. BMW Group and Mercedes-Benz saw relatively modest growth, at 4.2% and 0.5%, respectively.

However, Tesla's downward trend continues. According to data, the brand's sales fell by 10%, with its market share shrinking from 4.0% in the same period last year to 3.2%.

Uncertain Outlook for Market Recovery, Multiple Challenges Loom Over the Industry

Despite the encouraging sales figures in September, European automakers still face a series of severe challenges that make the long-term recovery outlook for the market highly uncertain.

Firstly, the pace of electric vehicle adoption, especially in the high-end segment, has not met expectations. Volkswagen this month reduced production at a factory in Germany due to weakened demand for its electric model, the Audi Q4 e-tron. Stellantis also suspended production at some of its factories in Europe this month Secondly, the uncertainty at the policy level is suppressing the popularity of electric vehicles. The European Union plans to eliminate the sale of new internal combustion engine vehicles by 2035, but this plan is facing challenges. German Chancellor Merz is pushing to relax the measure, while France has also stated this month that the EU must maintain a certain degree of "flexibility."

Finally, geopolitical risks and trade frictions are also putting pressure on the industry. According to analysis, the European automotive industry is struggling to cope with risks such as the tariff policies of former U.S. President Trump. These external factors could escalate at any time, thereby affecting supply chain stability and market confidence