After three consecutive days of decline, analysts say not to miss the opportunity to buy low, with the probability of rising to $5,000 greater than falling back to $3,000

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, gold has significantly corrected in the past week. Against the backdrop of expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the market may be missing the "discounted opportunity to buy gold." Given the possibility of another rate cut this year, industry insiders believe that investors may welcome another opportunity to buy at low prices.

Ryan McIntyre, a senior partner at Sprott focusing on precious metals asset management, stated that price pullbacks are unavoidable, but the "long-term growth logic of gold has not changed." The ongoing erosion of the global trust system drives the market to seek independent assets that are not dependent on any institutions or counterparties. He pointed out that the high deficits and debts in the fiscal situation of Western economies, especially the United States, will "raise sovereign risks" in the medium to long term, providing support for gold prices.

On Tuesday, the most active December gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange closed at $3,983.1 per ounce, down 0.9% for the day, marking the third consecutive day of decline. Since reaching a historical closing high of $4,359.4 on October 20, gold prices have cumulatively corrected nearly 9%, but have still risen nearly 3% this month, with an annual increase of close to 51%. Aakash Doshi, head of precious metals at State Street Global Advisors, stated that this round of adjustment is "temporary," with potential buying ranges expected between $3,600 and $3,650.

CME FedWatch indicates that the Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut rates by another 25 basis points on Wednesday. Stefan Gleason, CEO of Money Metals Exchange, stated that cutting rates while inflation remains high will "extend the bullish narrative for gold," as lower interest rates benefit non-yielding assets like gold. Gleason noted, "The global exposure to the dollar is still too high while exposure to gold is insufficient," and after the bubble sentiment is digested, gold is expected to continue rising against various fiat currencies.

Historical experience also reinforces market expectations. After the Federal Reserve's first rate cut of 25 basis points on September 17 this year, gold briefly corrected, then reached a new intraday high of $4,398 on October 20. The market expects another rate cut this year, and even a slight further cut in 2026. Doshi stated that the structural factors supporting gold prices, such as high fiscal debt, central bank gold purchases, policy uncertainty, and the high correlation between U.S. stocks and bonds, still exist. Gold remains a hedge and asset allocation against "left tail risks" (extreme losses).

Doshi further pointed out that the probability of gold prices rising to $5,000 is "higher than falling to $3,000," and that "the gold market has completed its repricing." He believes that especially in Western countries, gold as a liquid alternative asset is still severely under-allocated. McIntyre suggests that investors lacking exposure should "build positions in batches" to avoid timing risks and consider physical gold as a long-term strategic allocation, recommending a target weight of 10% for gold in their portfolios, with regular rebalancing. Broader strategic views suggest that the allocation weight for gold (including spot and ETFs) should be in the range of 5%-20%