Breakfast | Tech stocks surge! Nvidia hits a new high, market value approaches $5 trillion

Market Overview

The three major U.S. stock indices hit new highs, but the rise is entirely dependent on a few tech giants like Microsoft, Nvidia, and Apple, while most other stocks fell, and small-cap stocks significantly lagged.

Microsoft finalized a new cooperation agreement with OpenAI, with Microsoft rising about 2%, bringing its market value back to $4 trillion. Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang expressed optimistic views on AI and announced multiple collaborations, Nvidia surged nearly 5% to a new high, with its market value approaching $5 trillion, Nokia skyrocketed over 20%. Apple's market value briefly surpassed $4 trillion during the session, but could not hold that level at the close.

U.S. Treasury yields remained almost unchanged. The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday, with the dollar fluctuating lower. Both onshore and offshore RMB rose, reaching a more than one-year high. Cryptocurrencies fell in late New York trading, with Ethereum dropping over 5% from its daily high.

Gold fell for three consecutive days, dropping over 2.5% at one point on Tuesday, before narrowing its losses, with gold prices remaining below $4,000 for two consecutive days. Silver experienced a V-shaped reversal, rising 3.75% after dipping to $45.5 during the day, ultimately showing little change from yesterday's New York closing price. Oil fell over 2%, with WTI crude briefly dropping below $60.

During the Asian session, the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 4,000 points, then retreated to close down 0.2%, with military stocks collectively surging, the Hang Seng Index falling over 1%, government bonds rebounding, and Shanghai gold dropping over 4%.

Key News

The full text of the "14th Five-Year" plan proposal: Adopt extraordinary measures to drive decisive breakthroughs in key core technologies across the entire chain, fully implement the "AI+" initiative, and vigorously boost consumption. The "14th Five-Year" plan proposal mentions finance 17 times.

Trade tensions ease, gold prices fall again, gold ETFs****saw the largest single-day reduction in six months on Monday.

"Small Non-Farm" ADP****released weekly employment data: As of October 11, the average number of new jobs in the U.S. private sector was about 14,000.

Preemptive intervention in decision-making! Trump will "appoint people" by the end of the year, **the "new chairman of the Federal Reserve"**is likely to participate in the interest rate decisions in March and April next year.

U.S.-Japan summit: Footing the bill for the "U.S. nuclear power super deal", the high-profile meeting successfully pleased Trump. The U.S. and South Korea will sign an agreement to strengthen cooperation in AI and quantum technology.

Nvidia GTC conference: Plans a $1 billion equity investment****in Nokia, for AI 6G network collaboration; collaborations with Uber, Lucid, Eli Lilly, and others; NVQLink integrates quantum computing and supercomputing; Jensen Huang refuted the AI bubble; Blackwell made in the U.S.

OpenAI****reached a significant agreement to transition to a for-profit organization, adding a $250 billion Azure service order, with Microsoft holding a 27% stake, and AI model licensing extended to 2032. OpenAI announced a superintelligence roadmap: achieving fully automated AI researchers by 2028, with infrastructure investment commitments of $1.4 trillion.

Tesla Chairman warns: There is no "second Musk," if shareholders reject the trillion-dollar compensation plan, Musk may resign; if regulatory needs arise, Cybercab will be equipped with a steering wheel.

The "first stock of Robotaxi" is here! XPeng and WeRide both announced that they are expected to be listed on November 6. Reports: Uber is increasing its investment in the Chinese robotaxi market, planning to invest in XPeng and WeRide's Hong Kong IPO.

The trend of "shanzhai coins" ETFs is coming! The US Solana, Litecoin, and Hedera ETFs will start trading this week, and the Hong Kong Solana ETF has already been listed.

Ray Dalio: AI is forming a high-risk bubble, but it may not burst until the Federal Reserve tightens policy. Cathie Wood warns: AI has adjustment risks, and as interest rates rise next year, the market will be "chilled".

Market Closing Report

US and European stock markets: The S&P 500 rose 0.23%, closing at 6890.89 points. The Dow Jones rose 0.34%, closing at 47706.37 points. The Nasdaq rose 0.80%, closing at 23827.493 points. The European STOXX 600 index fell 0.22%, closing at 575.76 points.

A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.22%, closing at 3988.22 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.44%, closing at 13430.10 points; the ChiNext Index fell 0.15%, closing at 3229.58 points.

Bond Market: The yield on the US 10-year Treasury rose by 0.19 basis points, closing at 3.9814%. The yield on the 2-year US Treasury rose by 0.41 basis points, closing at 3.4918%.

Commodities: COMEX gold futures fell 1.25%, closing at $3969.40 per ounce. COMEX silver futures rose 0.81%, closing at $47.155 per ounce. WTI December crude oil futures fell 1.89%, closing at $60.15 per barrel. Brent December crude oil futures fell 1.86%, closing at $64.40 per barrel.

News Details

Global Highlights

"14th Five-Year Plan" proposal full text: Take extraordinary measures, promote key core technology breakthroughs across the entire chain, fully implement the "AI+" action, and vigorously boost consumption. The "14th Five-Year Plan" proposal: Forward-looking layout of future industries, exploring diverse technology routes, typical application scenarios, feasible business models, and market regulation rules, promoting quantum technology, biological manufacturing, hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communication to become new economic growth points Improve the new type of national system, adopt extraordinary measures, and promote decisive breakthroughs in key core technologies in important fields such as integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, high-end instruments, basic software, advanced materials, and biomanufacturing through a full-chain approach.

Xi Jinping: Explanation on the "Suggestions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development". According to Xinhua News Agency, the 15th Five-Year Plan suggestions emphasize strengthening original innovation and tackling key core technologies. Improve the new type of national system, adopt extraordinary measures, and promote decisive breakthroughs in key core technologies in important fields such as integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, high-end instruments, basic software, advanced materials, and biomanufacturing through a full-chain approach.

The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggestions mention finance 17 times. On the 28th, the highly anticipated "Suggestions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" was released. A review found that the "15th Five-Year Plan" suggestions mentioned "finance" 17 times, clearly proposing requirements such as "accelerating the construction of a strong financial country."

Trade tensions ease, gold prices fall again, gold ETF saw the largest single-day reduction in six months on Monday. On Tuesday, gold prices fell below $3960 per ounce during trading, continuing the decline from the previous trading day, with a drop of 3.2% on Monday. The easing of trade tensions has weakened market demand for safe-haven assets. The gold ETF reduced its holdings by 448,706 ounces (approximately $1.79 billion) on Monday, marking the largest single-day reduction in six months.

• Citi: Two key factors will determine whether gold prices can rebound, looking at 3800 next, with important support at $3600? Citi pointed out that the decline in gold prices is due to the cooling of geopolitical risks and profit-taking pressure from $17 trillion in floating profits. Whether gold can rebound depends on two key factors: first, whether Fed Governor Cook can be replaced by a dovish figure by February 2026, affecting interest rate expectations; second, whether the AI-driven U.S. stock market bull market and the U.S. economy can remain strong. If the economy improves, it will weaken gold's attractiveness; conversely, it may support a rebound in gold prices.

"Small Non-Farm" ADP launches weekly employment data: Approximately 14,000 new jobs were added on average in the U.S. private sector for the four weeks ending October 11. ADP announced on Tuesday that it will launch the "ADP National Employment Report" with preliminary estimates weekly starting this week, to track the dynamics of the U.S. labor market with higher frequency. This is a significant adjustment in ADP's labor data release mechanism in nearly two decades Advance intervention decision! Trump to finalize "new Federal Reserve chairman" by the end of the year, likely to participate in interest rate decisions in March and April next year. Trump is selecting the next Federal Reserve chairman from five final candidates, planning to finalize the choice by the end of the year. "New Federal Reserve Correspondent" Nick Timiraos analyzes that the new chairman is likely to fill the board seat currently held by Stephen Miran, allowing Trump to arrange for this future chairman to participate in the March and April interest rate-setting meetings before the new chairman officially takes office in mid-May, thereby influencing the direction of monetary policy before formally leading the Federal Reserve.

US-Japan summit: Paying for the "super deal" in US nuclear power, Kishida successfully pleases Trump. Energy is the highlight of this $550 billion investment list: Westinghouse, in collaboration with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and others, is building AP1000 nuclear reactors and small modular reactors (SMR) in the US, while General Electric's GE Vernova is advancing small reactor projects with Hitachi, each with a scale of up to $100 billion.

The US and South Korea will sign an agreement to strengthen cooperation in artificial intelligence and quantum technology. According to media reports citing a US official, the Trump administration plans to sign an agreement with South Korea aimed at enhancing cooperation in artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, and 6G technology. Previously, the US had signed similar agreements with Japan and the UK.

Key points from Jensen Huang's speech at the NVIDIA GTC conference: Major collaborations in 6G, NVQLink integrating quantum computing and supercomputing, rebutting AI bubble, Blackwell made in the USA.

• Expected to ship 20 million Blackwell chips, with total sales of Blackwell and Rubin chips reaching $500 billion.
• NVIDIA's NVQLink technology connects quantum computing with GPU systems, supported by 17 quantum processor manufacturers.
• The processor BlueField-4, supporting NVIDIA's AI factory operating system, is expected to launch an early version next year as part of Vera Rubin.
• NVIDIA will launch the Aerial RAN Computer with Nokia to support 6G network transformation; NVIDIA plans a $1 billion equity investment in Nokia.
• NVIDIA partners with Oracle to create the largest AI supercomputer for the U.S. Department of Energy equipped with 100,000 Blackwell GPUs.
• NVIDIA's autonomous driving development platform DRIVE AGX Hyperion 10 helps Uber deploy a Robotaxi fleet starting in 2027, with Uber planning to deploy 100,000 autonomous taxis, with the first batch of vehicles provided by manufacturers including Stellantis, Lucid simultaneously ramping up its L4 platform.
• NVIDIA collaborates with CrowdStrike on AI cybersecurity development.
• NVIDIA and Palantir build an operational AI technology stack.
• Eli Lilly partners with NVIDIA to establish the strongest supercomputer and AI factory in the pharmaceutical industry, accelerating drug development and discovering molecules that humans cannot find.

OpenAI reaches a significant agreement to transition to a for-profit organization, adding a $250 billion Azure service order, with Microsoft holding a 27% stake, and extending AI model licensing to 2032. Microsoft supports OpenAI in advancing the establishment of a Public Benefit Corporation (PBC). After OpenAI completes its capital restructuring, Microsoft's investment rights in the PBC are explicitly valued at $135 billion. Based on the "conversion dilution benchmark" and including all owners (employees, investors, and the OpenAI Foundation), Microsoft holds approximately 27% of the equity. Microsoft's intellectual property licensing for OpenAI models and products has been extended to 2032, which includes models after the realization of AGI (requiring appropriate safety barriers).

OpenAI announces a roadmap for superintelligence: achieving fully automated AI researchers by 2028, with infrastructure investment commitments of $1.4 trillion. OpenAI sets two key milestones: by September 2026, achieving AI research interns capable of effectively accelerating internal research through the consumption of large computing resources; by 2028, AI researchers will be able to independently complete large research projects. Altman points out that by 2028, scientific research will be fully automated by AI, and AI systems will be able to drive advancements at the scientific frontier. So far, OpenAI has committed to building a total of over 30GW of infrastructure, corresponding to a total investment of approximately $1.4 trillion over the coming years. Altman emphasizes that $1.4 trillion is just the starting point, and discussions are ongoing for a more grand vision. The goal is to create computing power at a rate of 1GW per week.

The chairman of Tesla's board warns: without a "second Musk," if shareholders reject the trillion-dollar compensation plan, Musk may resign; If regulatory requirements arise, Cybercab will install a steering wheel.

• Tesla is facing a crucial vote on November 5 to decide whether to approve Musk's potential compensation package of up to $1 trillion. Tesla's board chair, Denholm, warned that if the proposal is rejected, Musk may leave, which would "negatively impact all shareholders." Despite external criticism of the excessive compensation and governance imbalance, the board emphasized Musk's critical role in Tesla's AI strategy, stating bluntly, "There is no Plan B."
• Denholm stated, "If we must install a steering wheel, then it can have a steering wheel and pedals." According to current U.S. regulations, cars must be equipped with traditional control devices such as steering wheels and pedals. Although Musk has lobbied government officials on this matter, regulators have been cautious about changing these long-standing safety standards.

"The first stock of Robotaxi is here! Xiaoma Zhixing and Weiyuan Zhixing both announced plans to go public on November 6. According to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange announcement, Xiaoma Zhixing plans to issue approximately 41.96 million shares, with a maximum price of HKD 180; Weiyuan Zhixing plans to issue approximately 88.25 million shares, with a maximum price of HKD 35, both scheduled to be listed on November 6. Xiaoma Zhixing is the only company in China to obtain public autonomous driving service licenses in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, while Weiyuan Zhixing is the only company globally to have obtained autonomous driving licenses in seven countries.

• Report: Uber is doubling down on the Chinese robotaxi market, planning to invest in Xiaoma Zhixing and Weiyuan Zhixing's Hong Kong IPO. According to media reports citing informed sources, Uber is planning to participate in the fundraising for the IPOs of autonomous driving companies Xiaoma Zhixing and Weiyuan Zhixing in Hong Kong. Sources revealed that negotiations are still ongoing, and the investment plans may change. The companies involved have not responded to this.

"The trend of 'altcoin' ETFs is here! U.S. Solana, Litecoin, and Hedera ETFs will start trading this week, and the Hong Kong Solana ETF has already been listed. Following Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, the cryptocurrency ETF market is experiencing an expansion wave. Four "altcoin" ETFs in the U.S. will bypass regular approval and list on Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange this week through 8-A filings, covering Solana, Litecoin, and Hedera. Hong Kong has taken the lead, with the Huaxia Fund Solana spot ETF listed on October 27, becoming the first product of its kind in Asia.

Daliou: AI is forming a high-risk bubble, but it may not burst until the Federal Reserve tightens policy. Daliou stated in an interview with the media at the Future Investment Initiative Conference held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, that there are indeed many signs of bubbles in the market now But bubbles do not burst on their own; they usually wait until monetary policy tightens before being pierced. He believes that it is more likely to lower interest rates rather than raise them.

Cathie Wood warns: AI has adjustment risks, and the market will be "chilled" as interest rates rise next year. Cathie Wood warns that as the market focus shifts from rate cuts to rate hikes, the market will face a "chilling" adjustment, and valuations in the AI sector will undergo a "reality check." However, she denies the existence of an AI bubble, believing that the world is at the beginning of an AI technology revolution and that the long-term valuations of large tech companies are reasonable.

Domestic Macro

People's Bank of China: Improve the stability mechanism of the market, implement appropriate and detailed loose monetary policy, and study new policy measures. The People's Bank of China released a report from the State Council on the financial work situation, which proposed: to implement appropriate and detailed loose monetary policy to create a suitable monetary and financial environment for consolidating and expanding the economic recovery momentum. Effectively execute all previously issued monetary policy measures, continuously release policy effectiveness, and study and reserve new policy measures. Consolidate the positive momentum of the capital market and improve the stability mechanism.

CSRC Vice Chairman Li Chao: Urgently study and plan the strategic tasks and major measures for the capital market during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Li Chao emphasized that comprehensive promotion of a new round of capital market reform and opening up will be driven by deepening the comprehensive reform of capital market investment and financing, continuously enhancing the inclusiveness, adaptability, attractiveness, and competitiveness of China's capital market.

CSRC: "Zero tolerance" for cross-border illegal activities. Luo Juan, Deputy Director of the Legal Affairs Department of the CSRC, stated that it is necessary to effectively strengthen regulatory coordination and communication between domestic and foreign entities, hold issuers and intermediary institutions accountable, maintain "zero tolerance" for cross-border illegal activities, and severely crack down on serious illegal activities such as fraudulent issuance, financial fraud, and cross-border manipulation, ensuring that violators pay the price and jointly protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors.

"Zhongtaiwen" published articles for three consecutive days: The unification of the motherland is unstoppable. An article from Xinhua News Agency's "Zhongtaiwen" pointed out that the Chinese nation must unify strongly, and the stronger the unification. From the perspective of the comparison of strengths across the Taiwan Strait and the evolution of the international pattern, it will increasingly favor the just side that supports unification. The two sides should sit down and discuss a reasonable "two systems" Taiwan plan, which not only fully respects Taiwan's existing social system and achieves a high degree of autonomy but also allows Taiwanese compatriots to participate more broadly in national governance and international affairs, jointly managing the country with compatriots from the mainland and realizing the ideal of governing the country and stabilizing the nation on a broader land Witness the historic moment of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board! The first batch of newly registered companies in the Sci-Tech Growth Sector is listed. On October 28, the first batch of newly registered companies in the Sci-Tech Growth Sector of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board was listed, with Xi'an Yicai, Heyuan Bio, and Bibete ringing the bell collectively, closing at midday with increases of 210%, 202%, and 93%, respectively. With this, the number of companies in the Sci-Tech Growth Sector has reached 35. Li Chao, Vice Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, stated that this marks a new step for the capital market in serving technological innovation.

The motivation and significance behind the resumption of government bond trading. Huatai Securities interprets the central bank's resumption of government bond trading, pointing out that this move aligns with its previous market survey expectations. The team analyzes that the motivation for the resumption lies in the release of interest rate risks in the bond market, the opening of policy windows, and the need to hedge against liquidity expirations. Its core view is that the central bank's new proposal to "enhance the financial functions of government bonds" indicates that government bond trading will tend to normalize, becoming a new paradigm for fiscal and monetary coordination.

How to view and respond to the central bank's resumption of government bond trading? Guosheng Macro believes that the People's Bank of China announced the restoration of open market government bond trading operations, aiming to strengthen the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies and stabilize bond market expectations. This move will benefit the bond market in the short term, with the central bank expected to primarily purchase short-term government bonds, and considering the liquidity gap within the year, the scale of bond purchases may exceed expectations; the medium to long-term trend of the bond market will still depend on fundamental factors such as real estate and exports, but monetary easing remains a high-probability direction, with further reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts possible within the year.

Domestic Companies

The first quarterly report from a major bank is out, with Bank of China’s net profit attributable to shareholders returning to positive year-on-year, and non-interest income becoming the main growth engine.

China Ping An's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 45.4% year-on-year in the third quarter, with growth accelerating quarter by quarter.

ZTE Corporation's Q3 revenue increased by 5.11% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 87.84% year-on-year.

Zhaoyi Innovation's Q3 revenue grew by 31% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 61%, driven by rising DRAM prices and volumes.

Sungrow Power Supply's Q3 revenue increased by 20.83% year-on-year, with net profit growing by 57.04% Transsion Holdings Q3 revenue increases but profit decreases, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 22.60% and a year-on-year profit decline of 11.06%.

East Crystal Technology Q3 revenue increases by 27.03% year-on-year, gross margin significantly improves, and net loss narrows to 35.22 million yuan.

Overseas Macro

Gold price falls below $4,000, down 9% from its peak, after a 27% surge over the previous 7 weeks, industry executives say "gold price needs to drop first before rising". Industry executives believe that the previous 27% increase in gold prices over 7 weeks was driven by speculative positions, and the upward trend is unsustainable, with a general welcome for a "healthy correction." Some expect gold prices to drop to $3,500-$3,700. Despite HSBC, Bank of America, and others maintaining a $5,000 target for next year, even bullish investors are nervous about the recent decline. The market is focused on the sustainability of retail demand and central banks' willingness to purchase gold at high prices.

Bank of Korea: Considering purchasing gold for the first time since 2013. Officials from the Bank of Korea stated that they will closely monitor the market to decide the timing and scale of gold purchases. According to data from the World Gold Council, as of August this year, the Bank of Korea's gold reserves stood at 104.4 tons, unchanged since 2013. This has caused its global ranking in gold reserves among central banks to drop from 32nd at the end of 2013 to 39th.

"The Korean won has turned into toilet paper"! Concerns over the $350 billion investment agreement between the U.S. and South Korea lead to a surge in Korean retail investors buying U.S. stocks and gold. Due to fears that the agreement between South Korea and the U.S. will erode the value of Korean assets, retail investors in South Korea are flooding into dollar-denominated stocks and gold at an unprecedented scale, pushing concerns over the depreciation of the won to a peak. Over the past three months, the won has depreciated by more than 3%, becoming one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia.

Overseas Companies

Severe future: Amazon cuts 10% of white-collar jobs due to AI, aims for 75% operational automation, with hundreds of thousands of blue-collar jobs also at risk? According to media reports, Amazon's robotics team aims to achieve 75% operational automation, a plan expected to avoid hiring more than 600,000 new employees while doubling sales by 2033, and save about 160,000 hiring needs by 2027, potentially causing significant impacts on blue-collar jobs.

After Amazon, UPS discloses 48,000 layoffs, CEO: We are constantly finding opportunities to cut costs United Parcel Service (UPS) disclosed in its earnings report on Tuesday that it has cut 48,000 management and operational positions. Among these, 14,000 are management positions and 34,000 are operational positions. This layoff scale exceeds UPS's previously announced plan. Thanks to cost-cutting and job reductions, UPS's stock price rose nearly 7% during Tuesday's midday trading in the U.S. stock market.

U.S. Nuclear Power Revival Accelerates: Google Signs 25-Year Power Purchase Agreement with NextEra, Reviving 5-Year-Closed Nuclear Power Plant. According to media reports, NextEra will lead the Duane Arnold Energy Center restart project, which has a capacity of 615 megawatts and is expected to have a restart cost exceeding $1.6 billion, with plans to begin supplying power in 2029. Market analysis suggests that restarting idle nuclear power plants is more cost-effective and faster than building new facilities from scratch.

Key Step in U.S. Nuclear Power Expansion Plan: Westinghouse Electric Secures $80 Billion Contract, U.S. Nuclear Capacity Target to Quadruple by 2050. This is a key measure pushed by Trump to quadruple U.S. nuclear power capacity by 2050, and it also marks Washington's efforts to ensure critical energy supplies through trade negotiations. According to documents released by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, this agreement has allocated up to $100 billion in funding from the U.S. government for Westinghouse reactors.

Today's News Preview

U.S. President Trump visits South Korea.

The Federal Reserve announces interest rate decision, and Fed Chairman Powell holds a press conference.

The Bank of Canada announces its interest rate decision and monetary policy report.

Microsoft, Google parent company Alphabet, Meta, Caterpillar, and Boeing release earnings reports.

U.S. EIA crude oil inventory changes from last week