"15th Five-Year Plan" draft proposal: What are the new hot topics?

What clear guidance does the planning proposal released today provide for economic work during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period? We believe that around the two core tasks of "strategic initiative" and "major breakthroughs," new signals are emerging in five areas: industry, consumption, technology, finance, and openness.

"Industry" is prioritized; what does this signal? The "14th Five-Year Plan" specifically places "industry" before "technology," and prioritizes "upgrading traditional industries." "Maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range and steadily improving total factor productivity" is the primary goal of the "14th Five-Year Plan," which means focusing on economic construction and placing emphasis on the real economy. Simply achieving technological self-reliance does not equate to economic improvement; what is more crucial is to "develop new productive forces suited to local conditions," allowing traditional industries to achieve "new quality +" and, on this basis, cultivate and expand emerging and future industries.

Emerging industries should become pillars, while future industries focus on "forward-looking layout." The former is key to the transformation of old and new driving forces, forming industrial clusters in areas such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy; the latter emphasizes seizing opportunities and taking the initiative, focusing on the layout of quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communication.

First time clearly stating the increase in the resident consumption rate: how much room is there? We expect that over the next five years, the resident consumption rate (the proportion of resident consumption expenditure to GDP) will increase by at least about 5 percentage points, and the "Outline" may set relevant expected indicators.

How to calculate? According to the planning of the Fourth Plenary Session, by 2035, China's per capita GDP will reach the level of moderately developed countries, while the average resident consumption ratio of major developed economies during the same period is about 54%. This means that there is still a potential increase of about 14 percentage points in China's resident consumption rate.

How to implement? Releasing residents' willingness to consume still takes precedence over enhancing consumption capacity. In promoting consumption, the focus is more on stimulating willingness, such as "removing unreasonable restrictive measures on consumption like automobiles and housing," "implementing paid staggered vacations," and optimizing consumption scenarios. In contrast, new measures to increase residents' income are relatively limited, reflecting that current policies are more concerned with how to release rather than expand residents' purchasing power.

How does technology achieve "self-reliance and self-improvement"? As a core part of high-quality development, the key lies in seizing high points and leading the future.

How to seize high points? On one hand, focus on the historical opportunities of a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, using AI and green technology as leverage to seize the global high ground of technological development; on the other hand, starting from national security and strategy, strengthen the supply chain and core areas such as integrated circuits and industrial mother machines through a new type of national system How to Lead the Future? In addition to technological breakthroughs, it may be more important to promote the comprehensive integration of industry, academia, and research. The state should leverage its coordinating power in basic research, while enterprises must become the main body of innovation and vigorously promote the implementation of technological innovation.

Why is "Financial Power" First Mentioned in the "14th Five-Year Plan"? The elevation of the "Financial Power" strategy level is reflected not only in the accelerated pace of related deployments since this year but also in the recent communication of the spirit of the plenary session by the Financial Committee and the Central Bank, which has already provided a "preview."

On one hand, the current strategic game between China and the United States has entered a stalemate phase. The pressure exerted by the U.S. in traditional fields such as economy and technology has proven ineffective, and its real relative advantage may be more concentrated in the financial sector. However, this advantage comes at a high cost and is difficult to use lightly, objectively providing us with a time window to promote financial independence.

On the other hand, the construction of "Financial Power" can achieve a dual breakthrough in "pricing power" and "wealth effect"—not only must we master the pricing autonomy of core assets to prevent the loss of pricing power, but we must also make the stock market an important source of property income for residents, which can further enhance the public's consumption confidence.

The Priority of "High-Level Opening Up" is Elevated, and Enterprises Going Abroad and China's "Re-globalization" Welcome Dividends. Compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan," the "14th Five-Year Plan" period significantly enhances the level of "high-level opening up," shifting the tone from basic "implementation" to a more proactive "expansion." To "gain strategic initiative in fierce international competition," opening up must continue to "expand" and achieve "win-win" outcomes, supporting enterprises to "go out" while retaining core industrial chains domestically. By actively promoting China's "re-globalization," we can shape our own certainty.

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