When "chief trader" is no longer enough, is Trump going to personally "take the stage"?

Trump is upgrading his influence in the financial market from posting calls to direct involvement. The U.S. president, humorously dubbed the "chief trader" by outsiders, is now preparing to truly "open the market" through his company—venturing into the prediction market business.

According to recent media reports, Trump Media & Tech announced on Tuesday that it will launch a prediction market service called Truth Predict on its social platform Truth Social in partnership with Crypto.com. This service will allow users to bet on the outcomes of events in sports, entertainment, politics, and economic trends, with plans to promote it globally once regulatory requirements are met.

The timing of this move is quite delicate, as Trump himself and his family members have faced scrutiny in recent years due to stock price fluctuations and alleged insider trading. From the family members' stock price surges before joining the company to Trump himself calling for "buying in" before changes in tariff policies, a series of events have made the market highly sensitive to trading behaviors from his camp.

Prediction markets are becoming the hottest new track on Wall Street. According to research platform Dune, last week the trading volume in prediction markets hit a historic high of over $2.3 billion. The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, Intercontinental Exchange, has just invested $2 billion in Polymarket, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange plans to launch related contracts by the end of the year, as traditional financial giants are pushing this once-perceived "digital casino" fringe market into the mainstream.

Truth Predict: From "Social Platform" to "Prediction Market"

Trump Media & Tech's entry into the prediction market is a continuation of its deep binding strategy with the cryptocurrency industry.

The company will collaborate with the cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com to launch prediction market services through the Truth Social social platform, streaming platform Truth+, and fintech brand Truth.Fi. The service will first undergo Beta testing on Truth Social before a full launch in the U.S. Trump Media plans to roll out the service to global markets once all necessary requirements are met.

Prediction markets allow users to profit by predicting the outcomes of events in sports, entertainment, politics, and economic trends. Since last year's U.S. presidential election, this type of event-based contract trading has gained strong momentum. As market attention increases, prediction markets are being seen as a strong competitor for broader recognition in the financial circle, with some experts believing they are more accurate than traditional polls in a fiercely competitive landscape.

Kris Marszalek, CEO of Crypto.com, stated: "Prediction markets are expected to become a multi-billion dollar industry." This is not the first collaboration between the two parties. Earlier this year, Trump Media and Crypto.com reached an agreement with a blank-check acquisition company to launch a new joint venture, adopting a strategy similar to the Treasury to accumulate the native token CRO of the cryptocurrency platform, further deepening Trump's ties with the cryptocurrency industry Kalshi and Polymarket, the two largest prediction market platforms globally, have attracted significant attention from venture capital firms and other investors in recent months, solidifying the coverage and participation of prediction markets.

The Shadow of the "Chief Trader": The Cloud of Insider Trading Lingers

As the Trump camp enters the prediction market, questions surrounding unusual trading activities involving family members and affiliated companies have never ceased.

In recent years, a series of companies associated with Trump and his inner circle have exhibited abnormal trading activities before major personnel or policy announcements, raising suspicions of market manipulation and insider trading.

One of the most striking incidents occurred when the U.S. stock market experienced severe fluctuations due to tariff policies. About four hours before announcing the suspension of the tariff policy, Trump posted in all caps on his social platform Truth Social: "This is a great time to buy!!! DJT." Although DJT is also an abbreviation of his name, it is simultaneously the stock code for Trump Media. On that day, DJT's stock price closed up 22.67%, and the value of the shares held by Trump himself was estimated to have increased by $415 million.

Similar situations have occurred multiple times. In November last year, drone manufacturer Unusual Machines saw its stock price nearly triple within four weeks before announcing the hiring of Donald Trump Jr., with the average daily trading volume surging from 93,000 shares to 290,000 shares. In February this year, the fintech group Dominari Holdings, headquartered in Trump Tower, saw its stock price soar by 580% in the six weeks leading up to the announcement of Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump joining its advisory board.

These suspicions are not isolated. Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, closely related to Trump, and family members of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have also drawn attention for their precise "timing" trades. These events continue to ferment, leading to ongoing doubts about the Trump camp's use of informational advantages to influence the market.

Prediction Market Surge: From "Digital Casino" to Wall Street's New Darling

Trump's decision to enter at this moment coincides with the prediction market's transformation from a niche concept to Wall Street's new darling. Research platform Dune reports that last week, the global prediction market's weekly trading volume reached a historic high of over $2 billion.

The heat directly translates into valuation, with emerging platforms Polymarket and Kalshi leading this wave. Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based platform, has reportedly seen its valuation approach $15 billion after receiving a $2 billion strategic investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange Kalshi, as the first event contract exchange in the United States regulated by the CFTC, has gone viral on social media due to its real-time display of mayoral election odds on a large screen in the streets of New York. Its cultural influence has even extended to the well-known animated series "South Park."

Traditional financial giants have also entered the arena, with the world's largest derivatives exchange, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, planning to launch financial contracts linked to sports events and economic indicators by the end of the year. This move, along with ICE's investment in Polymarket and Nasdaq's exploration of asset tokenization, indicates that prediction markets and their underlying tokenization technology are moving from the margins to the center of the financial system.

In this context, Trump's "Truth Predict" is no longer just a celebrity's business gimmick, but a strategic positioning in a rapidly growing and increasingly mainstream-recognized emerging financial track. When Wall Street's "regular army" rushes in, Trump, who comes with traffic and controversy, clearly does not want to miss this feast.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

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