Mounjar and Zepbound sales soar, Eli Lilly's Q3 performance exceeds expectations, and full-year performance guidance is raised

Thanks to the sustained strong market demand for the weight loss drug Zepbound and the diabetes treatment drug Mounjaro, Eli Lilly's third-quarter performance significantly exceeded market expectations and raised its full-year guidance.

Eli Lilly's financial report released on Thursday showed that the earnings per share for the third quarter were $7.02, surpassing analysts' expectations of $5.69; revenue reached $17.6 billion, higher than the market expectation of $16.01 billion, and the company's stock price rose 5% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

Among them, sales in the United States soared by 45% to $11.3 billion. Eli Lilly stated that this was mainly due to a 60% increase in product sales, particularly for Mounjaro and Zepbound. The company noted that the decline in the actual selling price of drugs partially offset the impact of the sales growth.

Eli Lilly has now raised its revenue forecast for fiscal year 2025 to between $63 billion and $63.5 billion, up from the previous estimate of $60 billion to $62 billion. The adjusted earnings per share expectation has also been raised from the previous $21.75—$23 to $23—$23.70.

This performance highlights Eli Lilly's ability to maintain its leading position in the rapidly growing GLP-1 drug market, which has become the focus of intense competition with its main competitor Novo Nordisk.

Strong Sales of Weight Loss Drugs and Significant Improvement in Profitability

Mounjaro's revenue for the third quarter reached $6.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 109%, significantly exceeding the analyst expectation of $5.51 billion as per StreetAccount. Zepbound, which was launched about two years ago, recorded revenue of $3.57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 184%, slightly above Wall Street's expectation of $3.5 billion.

The combined sales of the two drugs exceeded expectations by about $1.3 billion, with the majority of the outperformance coming from the diabetes drug Mounjaro. Eli Lilly stated that its products currently hold approximately 58% market share in the weight loss and diabetes treatment market, which also includes Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy.

Total revenue for the third quarter was $17.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 54%. Sales in the U.S. market surged by 45% to $11.3 billion, primarily driven by a 60% increase in prescriptions or sales units for Mounjaro and Zepbound, although this was partially offset by a decline in the actual prices of the drugs.

Eli Lilly's net profit for the third quarter reached $5.58 billion, or $6.21 per share, compared to a net profit of $970.3 million, or $1.07 per share, in the same period last year. Excluding one-time items related to intangible asset values and other adjustments, the adjusted earnings per share were $7.02.

The company stated that the raised full-year guidance reflects the current tariff policies of Trump as of Thursday, but does not include the tariffs he threatened to impose on drugs imported to the United States.

Intensifying Market Competition

Over the past year, the company has captured a significant market share through strong performance of its weight loss and diabetes injectables and growth in direct-to-consumer sales. This quarter's performance shows that Eli Lilly continues to expand its leading advantage in the GLP-1 drug market Earlier this year, Novo Nordisk reached an agreement with one of the largest pharmacy chains in the United States, making it more difficult for some patients to access Zepbound. Eli Lilly executives had previously warned that this could impact third-quarter growth.

To enhance drug accessibility, Eli Lilly announced on Wednesday a partnership with Walmart to provide discounted packaged Zepbound for self-paying patients through in-store pickup services. The company is currently betting on its highly anticipated experimental oral weight loss drug orforglipron to solidify its market dominance, especially as competitors like Novo Nordisk rush to launch their own oral medications or next-generation injectables.

On Thursday, Novo Nordisk launched a takeover bid for the U.S. obesity biotech company Metsera, intercepting a bid from Pfizer, highlighting its urgency to catch up with Eli Lilly