Next week's key focus: U.S. Supreme Court hears tariff case, China-U.S. economic data, Tesla shareholder meeting, AMD earnings report

November 3 - November 9 Key Financial Events Overview, all times in Beijing:

Key Focus Next Week: China's October CPI, PPI, import and export, foreign reserves, PMI data, U.S. employment data, Bank of England policy interest rate. The U.S. Supreme Court begins hearing on tariffs. Tesla's annual shareholder meeting. Federal Reserve members speak for the first time after interest rate cuts. Whether the U.S. government shutdown will end may be clarified on November 3.

In addition, the International Financial Leaders Investment Summit will be held in Hong Kong from November 3 to 5. The U.S. Q3 earnings season will continue next week, with 129 S&P 500 companies including AMD, Qualcomm, and McDonald's set to release their earnings. Pony.ai and WeRide plan to be listed simultaneously on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on November 6.

Economic Indicators

• China's October CPI and PPI Data

On November 9, China will release the October CPI and PPI data. CICC believes that last year's low base will support the CPI, expecting the October CPI year-on-year to moderately rise to 0.6%.

Regarding PPI, they observed a significant rebound in the price indicators in the October PMI, expecting the year-on-year decline in PPI to narrow from September's -2.8% to -2.2%.

• China's October Import and Export Data

On November 7, China will release the October import and export data. CITIC Securities believes that some delayed export orders are expected to be concentrated in October, thus supporting exports. Based on this, CITIC Securities predicts that the year-on-year growth rate of exports in October will rebound to 4.9%.

On the import side, considering the domestic manufacturing PMI rebounding to 50.1%, reflecting a stabilization in domestic demand, CITIC Securities expects the year-on-year growth rate of imports to be 1.2%.

• China's October RatingDog Manufacturing PMI

On November 3, China will release the October PMI data. RatingDog previously reported that the September composite PMI rose to 52.5, indicating enhanced domestic demand and new order momentum. CITIC Securities believes that while the decline in industrial enterprise profits expanded in September, the special treasury bonds supporting equipment upgrades are still in a strong phase, coupled with significant improvement in the October manufacturing PMI, it is expected that manufacturing investment will maintain a high growth rate.

• U.S. Employment Data

On November 5, the U.S. will release the ADP employment report, while the official non-farm payroll data originally scheduled for November 7 may be delayed due to the government shutdown.

Bloomberg economist Anna Wong expects that non-farm employment in October may increase by only about 50,000, with the unemployment rate possibly rising to 4.4%. Recent ADP data has been negative for two consecutive months, indicating a significant slowdown in the job market, which provides key evidence for the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cut path.

• U.S. October ISM Manufacturing Index

On November 3, the U.S. will announce the October ISM manufacturing PMI, with Bloomberg economist Stuart Paul expecting the index to slightly rise to 49.5, mainly due to regional surveys showing improvements in new orders and employment conditions However, most surveys also indicate that input costs and selling prices are rising. If the ISM report confirms this trend, it will intensify market concerns about inflation stickiness, especially in the context where the September CPI has already shown that tariff costs are being passed on to consumers.

• Bank of England Policy Rate

On November 6, the Bank of England will announce its latest interest rate decision, with the market widely expecting it to hold steady and maintain the benchmark rate at 4%.

This meeting comes at a time when the UK economy faces the dual challenges of inflation stickiness and slowing growth, with the country's CPI hovering at a high of 3.8% for three consecutive months. Additionally, with a key budget proposal set to be announced on November 26, there is difficulty within the committee in reaching a consensus on interest rate cuts. Economists point out that while the central bank has hinted at a downward direction for future rates, it will not rush to take further easing actions.

Financial Events

• Tesla Annual Shareholder Meeting

Tesla announced that it will hold its shareholder meeting on November 6, during which shareholders will vote on three key proposals, including CEO Musk's compensation plan, equity incentive plan, and board elections.

Media analysis highlights two points of concern. First, Musk's compensation plan. Tesla plans to propose a compensation agreement for Musk with a potential value of approximately $1 trillion, which would be the largest executive compensation plan in U.S. corporate history.

Second, the potential release of Robot Gen 3. Current expectations for Gen 3 include: 1. Enhanced mobility; 2. Improved fine motor skills; 3. Higher autonomy; 4. Design closer to mass production form.

Wall Street Article states that for the Tesla shareholder meeting, Morgan Stanley warns that if Musk's compensation plan is not approved, Tesla's stock price could face an immediate sell-off of over 10%, which would be seen by the market as a vote of no confidence in his leadership. A rejection of the plan could also trigger uncertainty about the company's strategic outlook and increase the risk of key talent loss.

• Trump May Attend Hearing in Person, Observing Key "Tariff Ruling" at the U.S. Supreme Court

U.S. President Trump stated that he may personally attend the Supreme Court to observe the oral arguments regarding the legality of tariffs.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the U.S. Supreme Court previously announced that it would expedite the review of the legality of most tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and would hear oral arguments on November 5. The tariffs involved in the lawsuit include the 10% "baseline tariff" imposed globally under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, higher tariffs on trade partners that have not reached trade agreements with the U.S., and the so-called "fentanyl tariff." Although the president has visited the Supreme Court for events such as the swearing-in ceremony of justices, it is extremely rare for him to be present during oral arguments.

Wall Street Insight reports that currently, Wall Street is betting on "the Supreme Court overturning the tariffs, forcing the government to refund taxes," with the Commerce Secretary's son even participating at one point. ** According to reports, hedge funds are purchasing claims for potential future tariff refunds from cash-strapped importers at a price of 20 to 40 cents per $1 claim.

• The next vote in the U.S. Senate regarding the advancement of the appropriations bill to stop the government "shutdown" will begin as early as the evening of November 3.

According to CCTV News on November 2, based on the latest meeting schedule of the U.S. Senate on November 1, the next vote in the Senate regarding the advancement of the appropriations bill to stop the government "shutdown" will begin as early as the evening of November 3, which will mark the 34th day of the current U.S. government "shutdown."

• Federal Reserve committee members speak out for the first time after interest rate cuts.

Next week, Federal Reserve officials will be making a series of speeches. The 2025 FOMC voting member and President of the St. Louis Fed, Musalem, will hold a fireside chat on monetary policy, while 2026 FOMC voting member and President of the Philadelphia Fed, Paulson, 2026 FOMC voting member and President of the Cleveland Fed, Hamak, and 2027 FOMC voting member and President of the San Francisco Fed, Daly, will also deliver speeches.

According to Wall Street Insight, on October 29, Eastern Time, after the FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve announced that it would lower the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.00% to 4.25% to 3.75% to 4.00%, a decrease of 25 basis points. This is the first time the Fed has cut rates in consecutive FOMC meetings in a year after the first rate cut in this year's previous meeting.

• Pony.ai and WeRide plan to be listed simultaneously on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on November 6.

According to Wall Street Insight, as per the announcement from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Pony.ai plans to issue approximately 41.96 million shares with a pricing cap of HKD 180; WeRide plans to issue approximately 88.25 million shares with a pricing cap of HKD 35, both scheduled to be listed for trading on November 6.

Pony.ai is the only company in China that has obtained public autonomous driving service licenses in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, while WeRide is the only company globally to have obtained autonomous driving licenses in seven countries. A competition for the title of "the first Robotaxi stock in Hong Kong" has already begun.

• Hong Kong Monetary Authority: The International Financial Leaders Investment Summit will be held from November 3 to 5.

The President of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Eddie Yu, stated that the International Financial Leaders Investment Summit will be held again from November 3 to 5, 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has hosted this financial event. Approximately 300 international financial leaders will gather in Hong Kong next week to participate in the summit, including over 100 group chairpersons or CEOs The theme of this summit is "Navigating Change and Moving Forward with Determination."

Against this backdrop, financial leaders will discuss important trends and developments in macroeconomics, trade, and digital fields during the main summit, as well as the most prominent opportunities and risks in different financial markets, asset classes, and regions over the next few years.

• JD.com collaborates with GAC and CATL to launch a new car

JD.com officially announced a collaboration with GAC and CATL to launch a "national good car," with internal testing starting at the end of October and the official announcement of the new car on November 9.

• Hong Kong FinTech Week will be held from November 3 to 4.
• The 8th China International Import Expo will be held in Shanghai from November 5 to 10.
• The 2025 World Internet Conference Wuzhen Summit will be held from November 6 to 9.

Financial Reports

• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

The U.S. Q3 earnings season will continue next week, with AMD, Qualcomm, McDonald's, and 129 other S&P 500 companies set to release their results.

Zacks analysis indicates that the growth momentum for AMD's performance this quarter mainly comes from the strong performance of its data center and client business segments, particularly the mass production of AMD Instinct MI350 series GPU products, which has driven double-digit growth in the data center business.

CNBC analysis shows that some companies, such as Arista Networks, Wingstop, and Shopify, have historically outperformed expectations, with average stock price increases ranging from 1.6% to 3.7% after earnings reports. The performance of the semiconductor and consumer sectors will be a key test for the market to validate the AI investment theme and the resilience of domestic demand