Eli Lilly: On the eve of the "strongest new product cycle in the history of biopharmaceuticals"

Goldman Sachs is firmly optimistic about Eli Lilly, betting on "the strongest product cycle in the history of biopharmaceuticals."

According to Wind Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs' equity research department released a report on October 31, stating that Eli Lilly's oral weight loss candidate orforglipron represents "one of the most important new product cycles across the entire biopharmaceutical coverage." Management revealed that global regulatory submissions are about to begin, with expectations for a launch in the U.S. market next year for obesity treatment.

Eli Lilly is consolidating its leading position in the global biopharmaceutical industry with solid performance and forward-looking innovation layout.

The Dominance of GLP-1 Continues to Expand

According to a previous article from Wall Street Insight, Eli Lilly's third-quarter performance exceeded market expectations and raised its full-year guidance. Sales of weight loss drugs were strong, with Mounjaro revenue growing 109% year-on-year in the third quarter and Zepbound revenue increasing significantly by 184%.

Goldman Sachs is particularly focused on several issues that investors are most concerned about: "The pricing dynamics of GLP-1 remain stable, and the decision by pharmacy chain giant CVS to prioritize Novo Nordisk's Wegovy over Eli Lilly's Zepbound has not led to significant price erosion."

"Management stated that the pricing dynamics of GLP-1 are entirely in line with their expectations, and after CVS's recent decision to prioritize Novo Nordisk's Wegovy over Zepbound, they have not seen any significant pricing erosion."

Oral Weight Loss Drug orforglipron: A Transformative Product is About to Launch

Goldman Sachs believes that Eli Lilly's oral weight loss candidate orforglipron represents "one of the most important new product cycles across the entire biopharmaceutical coverage." Management revealed that global regulatory submissions are about to begin, with expectations for a launch in the U.S. market next year for obesity treatment.

Notably, the drug meets at least four of the requirements of the FDA's national priority voucher program, paving the way for expedited approval.

In terms of pricing strategy, "Eli Lilly views orforglipron as a sales model similar to Zepbound, focusing on leveraging the LillyDirect direct-to-consumer platform." Management emphasized that the convenience of the oral formulation will significantly expand the global target market size.

"Management pointed out that the overall characteristics of orforglipron (weight loss effects, superiority in diabetes compared to Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide, cardiovascular/anti-inflammatory benefits, and once-daily dosing without food and water restrictions) create a generational opportunity to enter a global target market much larger than the current incretin combination they are targeting."

Pipeline Layout: Flourishing from Weight Loss to Cardiovascular

In addition to the GLP-1 product line, Eli Lilly is also performing well in next-generation obesity compounds. Phase II data for the selective amylin agonist eloralintide is set to be announced at the Obesity Week conference, and results from six Phase III trials of the triple agonist retatrutide are expected to be released by the end of 2026 It is worth noting that Eli Lilly has newly disclosed that its Lp(a) project muvalaplin has entered Phase III clinical trials, and this emerging cardiovascular treatment field is becoming a focus for investors. Phase II data shows that the drug can reduce biomarker levels by over 85% compared to placebo at the highest dose.

Goldman Sachs maintains a P/E valuation of 26.0 times based on rolling adjustments of estimated values, believing that Eli Lilly is well-positioned before the launch of orforglipron in 2026. For this pharmaceutical giant that occupies a commanding position in the GLP-1 war, any regulatory approval ahead of schedule will bring additional surprises to its performance.

The target price for Eli Lilly has been raised from $879 to $951 (90 higher than the current stock price), reiterating a buy rating.