The incremental power demand of data centers in the United States, "off-grid solutions" address "1/4 to 1/3," with fuel cells meeting "25-50%"
The "off-grid" power supply solution has become a key force in solving the electricity consumption dilemma of AI. Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2030, the scale of this emerging market will reach 20-25 gigawatts. With advantages such as rapid deployment and clean efficiency, fuel cell technology stands out and is expected to occupy a "golden track" of up to 20 gigawatts, becoming a key energy source driving the future of AI
The exponential development of AI is turning data centers into power-hungry "monsters," while aging grid infrastructure is struggling to cope.
The lag of traditional grids has also opened up a huge market space for "Behind-the-Meter" (BTM) power supply solutions. According to reports from the Chasing Wind trading desk, Goldman Sachs' latest research predicts that by 2030, BTM solutions could meet 25% to 33% of the incremental power demand from data centers, corresponding to 20-25 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity.
Among them, fuel cell technology, with its unique advantages, is expected to occupy 25% to 50% of the BTM solutions market, equivalent to 8-20 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity.
AI's "Electric Tiger" and the Grid's "Midlife Crisis"
According to Goldman Sachs' report, the global power demand from data centers driven by both AI and non-AI applications is reshaping the power market. Goldman Sachs' U.S. utilities team predicts that by 2030, U.S. data centers alone will require an additional 82 gigawatts (GW) of power capacity to meet demand.
However, the reality is harsh. The construction speed of grid infrastructure is far behind the growth in demand. Data cited in the report shows that the construction speed of new high-voltage transmission lines in the U.S. has plummeted from an average of 1,700 miles per year between 2010-2014 to only 350 miles per year between 2020-2023.
Even more severe, according to data from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the median time required for a project from submitting a grid connection application to final commercial operation has approached 5 years.
This situation of "distant water cannot quench nearby thirst" forces data center operators to shift their focus from the grid to on-site power generation solutions that can be deployed quickly.
"Behind-the-Meter" Power Supply: An Emerging Market of 25GW
Faced with the grid's helplessness, "Behind-the-Meter" (BTM) solutions have emerged. BTM refers to generating and consuming power directly on the user side, without going through the public grid. The report clearly states that BTM solutions provide an important alternative for data centers to operate continuously, independent of grid reliability issues.
The report makes a key quantitative prediction: from 2024 to 2030, the total incremental power demand from data centers will be approximately 730 terawatt-hours (TWh). Goldman Sachs estimates that 25% to 33% of this will be met by BTM solutions, meaning that up to 20-25 gigawatts (GW) of BTM generation facilities will be deployed in the next five years.
"By 2030, 'Behind-the-Meter' solutions could meet about 25% to 33% of the incremental power demand from data centers, equivalent to 20-25 gigawatts (GW)."
In this emerging market, gas turbines and fuel cells are considered the two most promising technologies, as they can provide stable and dispatchable power independent of the grid.
The 8-20GW Golden Track for Fuel Cells
In the BTM solution, fuel cells, especially solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC), have structural advantages over traditional gas turbines in terms of delivery time, noise, emissions, and flexibility.
Given these advantages, Goldman Sachs is extremely optimistic about the application prospects of fuel cells in the data center market. The core prediction of the report is that by 2030, fuel cells will occupy 25% to 50% of the BTM solutions market, equivalent to 8-20 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity.
In particular, solid oxide fuel cells are considered the most suitable technology route for data center applications due to their high efficiency, fuel flexibility, and readiness for commercialization.
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