China Galaxy Securities: The production schedule for solid-state batteries is gradually becoming clear, and incremental equipment will bring new market opportunities

According to the China Galaxy Securities research report, the timeline for mass production of solid-state batteries by domestic and international battery and vehicle manufacturers is becoming clearer. It is expected that solid-state batteries will begin small-scale deployment in vehicles in 2027 and enter mass production by 2030. The technological and industrial chain resource advantages of traditional lithium battery equipment manufacturers are expected to extend to solid-state batteries, while incremental equipment such as dry process electrodes and isostatic pressing will bring new market opportunities. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of traditional lithium battery equipment manufacturers and dry process electrode equipment manufacturers in terms of solid-state battery equipment research and development, customers, and orders.

The main viewpoints of China Galaxy Securities are as follows:

The prospects for solid-state batteries are broad, and the trend of industrialization is accelerating

Solid-state batteries use solid electrolytes instead of traditional liquid electrolytes and separators, offering significant advantages over traditional liquid batteries, such as higher energy density, greater safety, and broader application scenarios, which are expected to address industry pain points like thermal runaway and endurance time. Currently, semi-solid batteries mainly use oxide materials, while sulfide materials, due to their excellent ionic conductivity and good mechanical properties, are gradually becoming the mainstream technical route for solid-state electrolytes in all-solid-state batteries. Driven by policy guidance and emerging market demands such as low-altitude economy and humanoid robots, the pace of solid-state battery industrialization is accelerating. At this stage, semi-solid batteries have already been deployed in vehicles, and the market for all-solid-state batteries is promising. The timeline for mass production of solid-state batteries by domestic and international battery and vehicle manufacturers is becoming clearer, with small-scale deployment expected in 2027 and mass production anticipated by 2030.

Innovation in the all-solid-state battery process system, focus on core incremental links

The production process of semi-solid batteries is similar to that of traditional liquid batteries, allowing for a high degree of reusability of existing production lines. However, the production process for all-solid-state batteries differs significantly, especially in the front-end and mid-stage processes. The front-end dry process is more compatible with material characteristics and can save energy and costs, gradually replacing the wet coating method; the mid-stage will use frame printing + stacking + isostatic pressing instead of traditional winding + liquid injection; the back-end will adopt high-pressure formation and capacity. New equipment will be added for dry process electrodes, solid electrolyte transfer, frame printing, and isostatic pressing, while the dry mixing, roller pressing, stacking, and formation processes will also require upgrades to existing equipment. Changes in production processes will lead to a reconstruction of demand and value in the equipment sector, with the investment amount for all-solid-state battery equipment per GWh expected to significantly increase compared to traditional liquid batteries, particularly in the front-end and mid-stage equipment, where the value proportion will further rise.

By 2030, the global and Chinese markets for all-solid-state battery equipment are expected to reach 32.059 billion yuan and 25.136 billion yuan, respectively

Solid-state batteries are expected to be first applied in emerging industries such as robots and eVTOLs, which have high requirements for endurance and safety and are relatively insensitive to price, before expanding to mid-to-high-end new energy vehicles. As the technology and processes mature and scale effects gradually emerge, they will eventually be applied in cost-sensitive energy storage industries. Assuming that by 2030, the penetration rates of all-solid-state batteries in global power batteries, energy storage batteries, humanoid robot and robotic dog batteries, and eVTOL batteries will be 2.5%, 1.5%, 3.5%, and 3.5%, respectively; the penetration rates in China for power batteries, energy storage batteries, humanoid robot and robotic dog batteries, and eVTOL batteries will be 3.5%, 2.5%, 5%, and 5%, respectively In the early stage of industrialization, the investment cost of all-solid-state battery equipment is relatively high. With continuous technological iterations and ongoing cost reductions on the equipment side, the investment amount per GWh is expected to gradually decrease from the current 400-500 million to 200-300 million by 2030.

Risk Warning: Risks of macroeconomic performance being worse than expected; risks of solid-state battery industrialization progress being slower than expected; risks of technological research and development progress being slower than expected; risks of downstream emerging fields developing slower than expected; risks of significant increases in raw material prices; risks of tariffs and export trade disputes