Breakfast | Palantir surged 7% in after-hours trading, with third-quarter revenue exceeding expectations, skyrocketing 63% to set a new record

Market Overview

US ISM manufacturing data disappoints, Dow Jones turns negative during the session, falling to a one-week low, AI trading is booming, Nasdaq approaches record highs, S&P and Nasdaq have risen for two consecutive days; Nvidia closes up over 2%, Amazon rises 4%, both nearing record highs; Cipher Mining surges 22% after signing a data center leasing agreement with Amazon; IREN rises 11.5% after signing a cloud computing service agreement with Microsoft; high-performing Palantir briefly rises 7% after hours.

US Treasury yields fall, with the ten-year Treasury yield reaching a three-week high. The US dollar index rises for four consecutive days to a three-month high, briefly turning negative after the US ISM index was released; the offshore yuan briefly falls over 100 points to approach 7.13, hitting a one-week low; cryptocurrencies plunge during the session, with Bitcoin down nearly 5% and Ethereum down nearly 9%.

After OPEC+ decided to pause production increases next year, crude oil rises for four consecutive days to a one-week high. Gold rebounds, with futures rising over 1% at one point. London copper falls for three consecutive days, hitting a one-week low, while London aluminum rises for two consecutive days to a three-year high.

During the Asian session, A-shares experience a V-shaped rebound, with all three major indices closing in the green. The thorium-based molten salt reactor concept explodes, while precious metals and batteries see significant declines. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rises nearly 1%, while Laopuyin Gold falls over 7%.

Key News

Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fo'an: Not adding new hidden debts as an "iron discipline."

Signs of cooling in the US job market: This year's corporate layoffs reach the highest level since 2020.

US October ISM Manufacturing PMI falls to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months, with weak demand and employment, and cooling inflation; Eurozone October Manufacturing PMI final value at 50, with Germany and France continuing to contract, and weak new orders dragging down the recovery process.

Federal Reserve Governor Mylan: The Federal Reserve's policy is too tight, should achieve neutral interest rates through a series of 50 basis point rate cuts; Federal Reserve Governor Cook speaks publicly for the first time since being sued by Trump: No decision has been made on a rate cut in December.

US Treasury Department lowers its borrowing expectations for this quarter by $21 billion to $569 billion, due to unexpectedly ample cash reserves.

The US government shutdown affects aviation safety, US Transportation Secretary: Will close national airspace if necessary.

"The first long-term price increase action since the AI era": Reports indicate that TSMC has initiated consecutive price increases for four years, with advanced processes rising about 3%-10%.

Amazon signs a $38 billion, seven-year computing power deal with OpenAI, with AWS supplying Nvidia chips.

Microsoft partners with Dell to support new cloud service provider IREN, reaching a $9.7 billion AI cloud deal, jointly building a supercomputing center in Texas.

The AI arms race fuels a financing wave for tech giants, with Google's parent company planning to issue over $20 billion in bonds in Europe and the US after Meta

NVIDIA AI chip export ban lifted for the first time, Microsoft invests $15.2 billion in the UAE.

Palantir's third-quarter revenue exceeded expectations, surging 63% to a new high, with fourth-quarter guidance also surpassing expectations, raising full-year guidance, and rising 7% in after-hours trading.

Boyu Capital plans to acquire up to 60% stake in Starbucks' China business for $4 billion.

Market Closing

US and European Stock Markets: The S&P 500 rose 0.17%, closing at 6851.97 points. The Dow Jones fell 0.48%, closing at 47336.68 points. The Nasdaq rose 0.46%, closing at 23834.723 points. The European STOXX 600 index rose 0.07%, closing at 572.28 points.

A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55%, closing at 3976.52 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.19%, closing at 13404.06 points; the ChiNext Index rose 0.29%, closing at 3196.87 points.

Bond Market: By the end of the bond market, the yield on the US ten-year benchmark Treasury bond was about 4.10%, up about 2 basis points during the day; the yield on the two-year Treasury bond was about 3.60%, up about 3 basis points during the day.

Commodities: WTI December crude oil futures closed up 0.11%, at $61.05 per barrel; Brent January crude oil futures closed up 0.19%, at $64.89 per barrel. COMEX December gold futures closed up 0.44%, at $4014 per ounce. LME copper futures closed down about 0.3%, at $10855 per ton. LME aluminum futures closed up about 0.6%, at $2902 per ton.

News Details

Global Highlights

YuYuanTanTian 丨 From the Busan Meeting to See "Historical Initiative": Look Long-Term, Control the Overall Situation, Be a Better Self. This meeting provided a judgment on the overall stability of current China-US relations. Under the strategic guidance of the leaders' meeting, both sides reached a consensus on strengthening cooperation in multiple areas. During the meeting, both sides agreed to maintain regular exchanges, strengthen cooperation in economic, energy, and other fields, and promote cultural exchanges. Whether facing the intertwined international situation or the healthy development of the domestic economy, both China and the US face new challenges and tasks. By being partners and friends, both can benefit from each other's development; by being rivals and enemies, they can only engage in vicious competition and harm each other.

Finance Minister Lan Fang'an: Not to increase hidden debt as an "iron discipline". Lan Fang'an stated that further implementation of the comprehensive debt reduction plan is needed, and efforts should be made to replace local governments' existing hidden debtsNot to add new hidden debts as an "iron discipline," promote the establishment of a unified long-term regulatory system for local government debt, and hold serious accountability for violations such as illegal borrowing and false debt conversion, to prevent past clearance and future debts. Accelerate the reform and transformation of local financing platforms, strictly prohibit the establishment of new or altered types of financing platforms. Optimize the debt structure and accelerate the establishment of a long-term mechanism for government debt management that is compatible with high-quality development.

The lawsuit determining the fate of Trump's tariffs begins hearings on Wednesday, with a small toy manufacturer as the plaintiff, while big companies remain absent. A small toy company has taken Trump's tariff policy to the Supreme Court, and its ruling will not only determine the fate of this landmark policy but could also trigger refunds amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars. In this case, described by Trump as "the most important in history," large companies suffering huge losses remain collectively silent, creating a dramatic scenario of "small shrimp against big whales."

**Signs of cooling in the U.S. job market:This year's layoffs by companies hit a new high since 2020. The latest report from employment consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas shows that as of September, nearly 950,000 layoffs have been announced by U.S. companies, exceeding any full year since 2009, except for the first year of the pandemic. Government layoffs approached 300,000, with well-known companies like Starbucks, Amazon, and Target implementing large-scale layoffs, leading economists to worry that these layoffs may no longer be isolated cost-cutting actions but rather signals of economic warning.

U.S. October ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months, with weak demand and employment, and cooling inflation. The U.S. October ISM Manufacturing PMI index did not rise as expected from September's 49.1 to 49.5. New orders in October fell for the second consecutive month, and the weak production index has led companies to maintain low levels of employment, with the price payment index hitting its lowest since the beginning of the year.

Eurozone October Manufacturing PMI final value at 50, Germany and France continue to contract, weak new orders drag down recovery progress. The Eurozone's October Manufacturing PMI remained at 50.0, indicating that the recovery has stalled. New orders have stopped declining without increasing, and exports have fallen for four consecutive months, prompting companies to accelerate layoffs in response to weak demand. Germany and France remain in contraction territory, with the confidence index dropping below the long-term average. Slowing inflation supports the European Central Bank in maintaining interest rates, but the foundation for economic recovery remains fragile.

Federal Reserve Governor Milan: The Federal Reserve's policy is too tight, should achieve neutral interest rates through a series of 50 basis point rate cutsMilan reiterated that the neutral policy interest rate is far below the current level and should be achieved through a series of 50 basis point rate cuts. He also pointed out that a series of seemingly unrelated pressure signals that have recently appeared in the credit market may reflect overly tight monetary policy.

Federal Reserve Governor Cook speaks publicly for the first time since being sued by Trump: No decision yet on December rate cut. Cook agreed with the Federal Reserve's action to cut rates in October, stating that the decision was appropriate as the downside risks to employment outweigh the upside risks to inflation. Regarding future policy direction, Cook stated that she will continue to adhere to a "data-dependent" stance.

U.S. Treasury lowers borrowing expectations for this quarter due to unexpectedly ample cash balance, reducing the estimate from $590 billion in July to $569 billion. The Treasury's general account balance has now reached $891 billion, higher than the previously expected $850 billion. The Treasury expects borrowing in the first quarter of next year to further decline to $578 billion, far below the record levels of the same period last year.

U.S. government shutdown affects aviation safety, U.S. Transportation Secretary: Will close national airspace if necessary. Transportation Secretary Duffy stated that if officials determine that air travel poses a danger, he will close U.S. airspace. However, Duffy also noted that the U.S. is not at that point yet, but the government shutdown does pose greater risks to the aviation system. The U.S. Travel Association and hundreds of travel-related businesses and organizations have written to Congress, stating that the government shutdown has caused the U.S. travel economy to lose over $4 billion.

"The first long-term price increase action since the AI era"! Report: TSMC initiates price increases for four consecutive years, advanced processes to rise by about 3%-10%. Due to rising production costs and continued supply shortages, TSMC has initiated annual negotiations with customers, expecting price increases for advanced processes to reach 3% to 10% by 2026. Analysts believe that TSMC's rare initiation of four consecutive years of price increases is expected to trigger the next wave of chip price increases.

The 2nm competition among the three chip giants: The Android camp bets on TSMC's N2P process to surpass Apple. According to reports, Apple plans to launch the A20 and A20 Pro chips on TSMC's first-generation 2nm N2 process, while Qualcomm's Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 and MediaTek's Dimensity 9600 will leap directly to the improved N2P node. Analysts say that TSMC's 2nm process will become a scarce resource, with a monthly production capacity of only 15,000 to 20,000 wafersAmazon signs a $38 billion, seven-year computing power deal with OpenAI, AWS to supply NVIDIA chips. OpenAI will use hundreds of thousands of NVIDIA GPUs and can expand the collaboration in the future. OpenAI will immediately activate AWS computing power and plans to fully implement it by the end of 2026. This move is seen as a key step for OpenAI to accelerate its independence from Microsoft and pave the way for its future IPO. The partnership is also regarded as a significant breakthrough for Amazon in the cutting-edge AI computing power market, strengthening its competitiveness in the cloud computing sector. Amazon's stock price rose nearly 6% in early trading, while NVIDIA's stock price increased by over 4% during the session.

Microsoft teams up with Dell to support new cloud service provider IREN, reaches a $9.7 billion AI cloud deal, co-building a super computing center in Texas. Microsoft has signed an AI cloud agreement worth approximately $9.7 billion with the Australian new cloud service provider IREN, marking its largest external computing power procurement ever. IREN will purchase $5.8 billion worth of GPU equipment from Dell to build a super computing center in Texas. This move highlights Microsoft's urgent need to alleviate the AI computing power shortage and propels new cloud service providers like IREN to rapidly rise as new forces in AI infrastructure competition.

The AI arms race fuels a financing wave for tech giants, after Meta, Google's parent company plans to issue over $20 billion in bonds in the US and Europe combined. Media reports indicate that Alphabet plans to issue approximately $17.5 billion in dollar bonds in the US and €6.5 billion in euro bonds in Europe, with its dollar bonds attracting about $90 billion in subscription demand. Last Thursday, Meta issued $30 billion in bonds, setting the highest scale for high-grade corporate bond issuance this year, with a peak subscription amount of $125 billion, a record.

First export license for NVIDIA AI chips, Microsoft bets $15.2 billion on the UAE. The US government has approved Microsoft for the first time to export advanced NVIDIA AI chips to the UAE. Following this, Microsoft announced a $15.2 billion investment commitment covering 2023 to 2029. The new license will allow the company to ship an additional 60,400 chips equivalent to A100 computing power, including NVIDIA's latest GB300 products, quadrupling the UAE's AI computing power.

Elon Musk's latest "radical" statement: sentencing mobile phones to death in advance, AI and robots are the only way out. In a recent interview, Musk predicted that traditional mobile phones will disappear in the next 5-6 years, with content generated in real-time by AI. He forecasts that by 2026, AI intelligence will surpass that of a single human, and by 2030, it will exceed the total intelligence of all humanityEmphasizing that AI and robotics are not industry choices, but essential tools for maintaining social operations, and the only way to solve the U.S. debt crisis.

Morgan Stanley: 2026 will be the year of AI technology hardware. Morgan Stanley believes this is mainly driven by upgrades in AI servers. It predicts that after the launch of NVIDIA's Vera Rubin platform in 2026, cabinet demand will surge to 60,000 units. The power consumption of GPUs is expected to soar to 2300W, driving the value of power supply solutions to grow more than tenfold by 2027, with liquid cooling becoming standard. Core components such as PCBs and high-speed interconnects are set for significant upgrades, and the entire AI hardware supply chain value is being reassessed.

Palantir's third-quarter revenue exceeded expectations, surging 63% to a new high, and the fourth-quarter guidance also exceeded expectations, raising the full-year guidance, with a peak increase of 7% in after-hours trading. Palantir has now reported revenue above Wall Street expectations for 21 consecutive quarters. Palantir stated that the upward revision of guidance is due to the "accelerated and extraordinary" growth of its AI and data analysis products.

• “AI star company” Palantir believes university education is useless, hiring 22 high school students and launching “brainwashing training”. Palantir has launched the "Elite Scholarship" program, directly recruiting talent from high schools and providing full-time job opportunities, challenging the traditional value of university education. The program opens up career paths for selected candidates without requiring a university degree through four weeks of cultural seminars and intensive practical training, prompting a reevaluation of talent selection standards in the tech industry.

Boyu Capital plans to acquire up to 60% of Starbucks' China business for $4 billion. Reports indicate that Starbucks has reached an agreement with Boyu Capital to form a joint venture. Starbucks stated it agreed to sell control of its China business to Boyu Capital for $4 billion, retaining a 40% stake in the business and continuing to own and authorize the new entity to use the Starbucks brand and intellectual property.

Domestic Macro

China's October RatingDog manufacturing PMI is 50.6, remaining above the boom-bust line for three consecutive months, with new export orders falling back into contraction. At the beginning of the fourth quarter, China's manufacturing sector continues to expand. New orders have increased, driving production up, along with employment, procurement, and inventory. However, the growth rates of new business and output have weakened compared to September, and export orders have fallen back into contraction. Yao Yu commented that recent Chinese policy focuses on the "14th Five-Year Plan," and subsequent policies to stabilize the economy and promote domestic demand are expected to be introduced, which may provide some support for the PMI indexDomestic Companies

Laopu Gold fell more than 8% during trading! China's tax incentives end, gold drops below 4000 USD. Previously, most processors in China could deduct the value-added tax on the input side when selling to downstream consumers. The new policy changes this long-standing tax incentive mechanism, retaining it only for formal members of the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange, while ordinary retailers will lose this tax incentive. This policy will last until the end of 2027. Analysts believe that this policy adjustment may weaken gold demand and put new pressure on gold prices, which recently reached a historical high.

• Why did Laopu Gold and other jewelers plummet after the end of gold tax incentives? After the new regulations were implemented, companies producing non-investment gold (such as jewelers) can only deduct 6% of the value-added tax, down from the previous 13%. Citigroup predicts that in the "worst-case scenario," retailers' costs will increase by about 7%. Morgan Stanley believes that brand owners will likely pass on the costs to end consumers by raising retail prices, with demand for weighted gold jewelry being the most impacted.
• After the new gold tax regulations were introduced, ICBC and CCB suspended the acceptance of physical gold bar withdrawals, and CMB's gold bar prices already include tax. From November 1 to December 31, 2027, standard gold traded through the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (without physical delivery) is exempt from value-added tax. However, once physical withdrawal or sales through non-exchange channels occur, value-added tax will be levied according to current regulations. This means that the cost of investing in physical gold has increased, while electronic gold investments within the exchange have greater tax advantages.

From "Chip" to "Electricity," Bank of America: China's AI infrastructure non-IT investment scale will reach 800 billion. Bank of America states that the essence of the AI race is a "power race," with the investment boom shifting from traditional "chips" to non-IT infrastructure such as electricity, heat dissipation, and materials. It is expected that by 2030, China's related non-IT investment scale will reach 800 billion, with the power system (generation and transmission) occupying an absolute dominant position of 38%, followed by metals needed for data center construction (12%) and advanced cooling systems (10%).

Nomura is bullish on Zhongji Xuchuang: The 1.6T optical module upcycle is an "irreplaceable winner"! Nomura believes that the acceleration of 1.6T optical module shipments and the increase in the penetration rate of silicon photonics (SiPh) technology will be core driving forces, making Zhongji Xuchuang a key beneficiary of the industry's upcycle. Nomura is particularly optimistic about Zhongji Xuchuang's leading position in the high-speed optical module market, expecting the company to capture 30%-35% and 40%-45% market shares in the 800G and 1.6T markets, respectivelyThe market has overly high expectations for the robotics business! Goldman Sachs downgraded "Sanhua Intelligent Control". The stock price of Sanhua Intelligent Control has severely overdrawn the expectations for robot shipments. Goldman Sachs estimates that its current A-share valuation implies a shipment volume of 900,000 to 2 million robots in the next year, far exceeding Tesla's goal of one million by 2030, while the mass production of Optimus has been delayed. Under the dual pressure of the robotics dream being far from realization and the slowdown in traditional business growth, its stock price faces significant downside risks in the short term.

Vanke's dollar bonds fell, Shenzhen Metro tightened loan conditions, requiring collateral. Vanke's latest announcement shows that the company plans to apply for a loan limit of no more than 22 billion yuan from Shenzhen Metro Group. The loan limit is a one-time credit limit, meaning that within the validity period authorized by the shareholders' meeting, any repaid principal cannot release new loan limits for re-extraction. Another announcement pointed out that Shenzhen Metro requires Vanke to provide collateral or pledges for an unsecured loan worth 20.373 billion yuan to ensure the borrower's debt.

Overseas Macro

Goldman Sachs predicts "U.S. government shutdown" will end within two weeks, is there "more basis" for the Fed to cut rates in December? Goldman Sachs predicts that the shutdown is "most likely to end around the second week of November," but also warns that key economic data will be delayed. Citigroup also expresses confidence that the shutdown will end "within two weeks," while emphasizing that once reopened, data will quickly recover, providing "sufficient basis" for a rate cut in December.

Wall Street prophet Yardeni: "Too many bulls," technical indicators show U.S. stocks may have overdrawn. Wall Street's famous bull Yardeni rarely warns that U.S. stocks are overly optimistic: the S&P 500 index has surged 37% in six months, and the bull-bear ratio has risen to 4.27, breaking through the overly optimistic threshold; technical indicators show that the S&P 500 is 13% above the 200-day moving average, and the Nasdaq is 17% above its support level, close to July's peak level. Yardeni expects a potential drop of 5% from the peak before the end of the year but still recommends buying on dips, believing that there will not be a significant adjustment of over 10%.

BofA Merrill Lynch: Key indicators show U.S. stocks are far from extreme "bubble" levels. BofA's "sell-side indicator" slightly rose to 55.7% in October, still within the "neutral" range, and is still away from triggering a "sell" signal at 57.8%. Historically, when the market peaks, the reading of this indicator usually exceeds 59%. According to the historical model of this indicator, the current level of 55.7% suggests a potential price return of 13% for the S&P 500 index in the next 12 monthsThe U.S. Seeks to Expand "Dollarization," with Latin America as the Primary Target, Is Argentina the First to Bear the Brunt? The policy discussion on expanding "dollarization" in the U.S. has entered a substantive stage, with multiple government departments involved and consultations with authoritative experts in the field of dollarization. Among them, Latin American countries are seen as the primary targets for dollarization, with Argentina becoming a major candidate due to the frequent depreciation of the peso. Previously, the U.S. Treasury provided Argentina with $20 billion in financial aid.

Under the Impact of a Strong Dollar, the Indian Rupee Approaches Historical Lows, the Indian Central Bank May Be Forced to Intervene. Under the dual pressure of a strengthening dollar and hedging demand from importers, the exchange rate of the Indian rupee is approaching historical lows. Although the Indian central bank has reportedly intervened to support the exchange rate, market confidence remains suppressed. The hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and uncertainties in U.S.-India trade put pressure on the rupee's outlook, which is expected to fluctuate in the short term within the range of 88.50 to 89.10.

After OPEC+ Announced a Halt to Production Increases Next Year, Morgan Stanley Quickly Raised Oil Price Expectations! Morgan Stanley believes that OPEC+ has returned to actively managing the market rather than operating in "autopilot" mode, providing downward protection for oil prices and reducing market volatility and the risk of collapse. Morgan Stanley raised its Brent oil price expectation for the first half of 2026 from $57.50 to $60 per barrel, and expects oil prices to rebound to $65 per barrel after the market regains balance in the second half of 2027.

Overseas Companies

Latest Training Progress of Tesla's Optimus Exposed, Abandoning Motion Capture, Fully Shifting to Pure Visual Data Collection. According to reports, Tesla has shifted the training method of its humanoid robot Optimus from motion capture to pure camera data collection, with dozens of data collection employees repeatedly performing daily actions (such as wiping tables, lifting cups, and pulling curtains) in the laboratory to provide video training materials for the robot to learn human behavior.

Tesla's European Sales Continue to Plummet, with the Swedish Market Dropping Nearly Ninety Percent. Data shows that Tesla registered only 133 new cars in Sweden in October, a year-on-year drop of 89%, making it the market with the largest decline to date. Sales in Norway, the Netherlands, and Italy have decreased by about half, while sales in Spain have dropped by nearly one-third.

Apple's 50th Anniversary: Betting on Apple Intelligence and Foldable iPhone, Can It Open the Next Decade?. According to reports, Apple plans to launch a foldable iPhone and a new version of Siri based on Google Gemini in 2026, and is entering the smart home marketBut facing severe challenges: lagging behind Google and Amazon in the smart home field, folding screens entering the market years later than competitors, regulatory pressures, tariff risks, etc. Analysts believe that 2026 will be a critical test year for Apple's strategic transformation, and the dominant position in the next decade will depend on the execution in 2026.

$27 billion and Zuckerberg's financial tricks: spending other people's money to buy one's own computing power. In the recently announced $27 billion "Hyperion" data center joint venture project, Meta contributed about 20%, issuing approximately $27 billion in A+ rated bonds through an SPV, along with about $2.5 billion in equity, anchoring long-term institutional funds. The key design is: these assets are not included in Meta's balance sheet, and after the data center is completed, Meta will lease it back long-term while retaining operational control. This transforms capital expenditure into operating expenditure, thereby reducing financial leverage and maintaining credit ratings.

Today's News Preview

European Central Bank President Lagarde speaks.

Australia's policy interest rate.

AMD, Shopify, Uber, Arista, and Pfizer announce earnings reports.

EIA releases the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report