After a cumulative drop of 30% in stock price over two and a half months, is ZHAOKE OPHTH-B about to reach a new turning point of simultaneous increase in volume and price?

In the first half of this year, driven by the bull market for innovative drugs in the Hong Kong stock market, ZHAOKE OPHTH-B (06622) saw its stock price enter a fast lane, a momentum that continued until mid-August. On August 18, the company's stock price reached a peak of HKD 4.60, indicating a maximum increase of 283.33% for the year.

However, after reaching this peak, ZHAOKE OPHTH's stock price did not continue to rise but entered a volatile downward range. In the following two and a half months, the company's stock price experienced a "nine consecutive declines" and "ten consecutive declines." Although the daily decline was not large, this "slow knife cutting meat" type of decline still resulted in a cumulative drop of 30% during this period.

According to Zhitong Finance APP, on October 22, ZHAOKE OPHTH's low-concentration atropine sulfate eye drops (NVK002) at a dosage of 0.01% received all green lights for its abbreviated new drug application (ANDA) review project, indicating that the product is one step closer to final approval for market launch.

However, the secondary market seemed unmoved. On the trading floor, the market only showed unusual activity after the midday session on October 22, pulling the company's stock price up to a maximum of 3.58%, and ultimately closing with that slight increase after minor fluctuations. However, this increase only lasted for one day, as the company's stock price quickly fell by 4.72% the next day, giving back all the previous day's gains. In the following trading days, ZHAOKE OPHTH's stock price remained in a sideways fluctuation, with the price even dropping to as low as HKD 2.9.

In fact, ZHAOKE OPHTH's current PB valuation is only 0.92 times, far below the industry average of 3.15 times PB, and also down 19% compared to the company's own three-month average PB. With the current situation of "price flat and volume shrinking," its future market performance has become the focus of investors' attention.

The certainty of heavyweight varieties increasing

On August 28, ZHAOKE OPHTH disclosed its mid-term performance for 2025, achieving revenue of HKD 15.803 million, a year-on-year decline of 68.25%; corresponding to a net loss of HKD 117 million, a year-on-year increase of 53.85%.

Although both revenue and net profit showed a decline, investors can easily find that the significant drop in revenue compared to the same period last year was mainly due to a one-time licensing income of HKD 33.5 million from the previous year, which inflated the revenue base. Excluding this factor, ZHAOKE's product revenue for the current period was approximately HKD 15.1 million, only slightly down from HKD 15.6 million in the same period last year. On this basis, high R&D investment further increased its net loss.

In other words, ZHAOKE OPHTH's poor financial performance in this year's mid-term report was already a known event. Therefore, the company's stock price having increased by more than 280% this year before the mid-term report was clearly a bet on the "future." And this "future" is inseparable from the company's atropine sulfate eye drops used for myopia control According to the Zhitong Finance APP, in the first half of this year, ZHAOKE OPHTH achieved significant milestones in the research and registration of its core products. The drug atropine sulfate eye drops (NVK002) used for myopia control made notable progress: in January 2025, the simplified new drug application (ANDA) for the 0.01% dosage was accepted by the National Medical Products Administration ("NMPA") of China; subsequently, in July 2025, the new drug application (NDA) for the 0.02% dosage was also accepted.

As a result, ZHAOKE OPHTH has become the only company in China currently with two dosages of atropine sulfate eye drops simultaneously under regulatory review.

This drug, as a patented formulation, successfully addresses the instability of low-concentration atropine, and this technology is protected by intellectual property rights globally. NVK002 is preservative-free and is expected to have a shelf life of over 24 months. It is reported that NVK002 is currently one of the most advanced atropine candidates globally for treating worsening myopia, targeting the broadest patient group, covering children and adolescents aged 3 to 17.

From a market perspective, according to the World Health Organization and ZhiShi, there are currently about 700 million myopia patients in China, of which 163 million are children and adolescents who could benefit from NVK002. According to estimates by China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the myopia prevention and control market is expected to reach 210 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13.7% over the next decade.

In terms of domestic market competition, there is only one competing product in the low-concentration atropine eye drops market, which is Xingqi Eye Medicine's 0.01% atropine sulfate eye drops. Based on the current commercialization progress, ZHAOKE OPHTH's NVK002 is expected to become the second low-concentration atropine drug in China. Therefore, despite Xingqi Pharmaceutical having the first approved indication and 16 related products under research, PuYin International still predicts that ZHAOKE OPHTH's NVK002 will achieve a peak domestic market share of 22%.

Now, the review items for NVK002's 0.01% simplified new drug application (ANDA) have all passed, which is undoubtedly a milestone for ZHAOKE OPHTH. Although the company may still need to go through the "supplementary approval" process for this drug, the certainty of its market launch is indeed increasing.

On the Eve of a New Round of Upsurge?

Since April 9 of this year, when the stock price of ZHAOKE OPHTH fell to a temporary low of 1.3 HKD due to fluctuations in the Hang Seng Index, the stock price has basically fluctuated upward along the 5-day moving average.

From the BOLL indicator perspective, there were two main upward trends from May 15 to June 13 and from July 17 to August 18. During this period, the stock price of ZHAOKE OPHTH basically operated along the upper track of the BOLL line, and the overall trading volume showed a significant increase compared to before.

After this rally, ZHAOKE OPHTH reached a profit ratio of 99.23% on August 18. From the chip peak perspective, the chip peak is concentrated at the 2.93 HKD position, mainly coming from the bottom-fishing chips at the end of the first rally on June 13. However, at this time, the average cost of the chips was only 2.7 HKD, meaning that a large number of chips came from the bottom-fishing chips in April. Therefore, in the upcoming downward trend, the main funds' task is to wash away as many low-cost "stubborn chips" as possible to achieve further control

On August 18, ZHAOKE OPHTH-B's K-line touched a peak of HKD 4.60 during intraday trading on the tenth trading day of operating along the upper track of the BOLL, and then the stock price surged and fell, forming a long upper shadow. The next day, the company's intraday highest price fell from the upper track of the BOLL, indicating the beginning of a new round of technical regression.

In fact, after nearly a whole month of stock price climbing in July, the divergence among on-site holders of ZHAOKE OPHTH-B continued to widen. First, during the three consecutive rising days from August 4 to 6, the trading volume exceeded 7 million shares on the first two days, and the trading volume on the last day remained at 6.8 million shares, showing a significant increase in volume compared to before. As a result, when the company's stock price experienced a sharp correction on August 14, there was a selling phenomenon on-site, driving the trading volume further up to 8.9932 million shares that day.

In fact, through the operation of surging and falling, many of the indecisive retail chips of ZHAOKE OPHTH-B have been washed away. After the significant drop from August 19 to August 28, and the stock price's oscillation return to the middle track of the BOLL in early September, most of the retail investors who had previously bottomed out have chosen to take profits. On September 12, the trading volume of the company's stock fell below 1 million shares for the first time since July this year, and the increase in consistency on-site indicates that the "reluctance to sell" sentiment is prevailing.

After two and a half months of adjustment, the average cost of on-site chips for ZHAOKE OPHTH-B has reached HKD 3.24, with the peak of chips also around HKD 3, and the chips below HKD 2 have basically been cleaned up. The 71.87% chip overlap also indirectly indicates that the main funds' control ability has further improved.

Although from September 16 to October 14, ZHAOKE OPHTH-B's stock price has cumulatively dropped more than 20%, the average daily trading volume in the range has visibly decreased, indicating that apart from the main funds, the remaining are basically firm retail chips, and the marginal benefits of continuing to wash chips by further declining stock prices have significantly decreased. Therefore, in recent trading days, ZHAOKE OPHTH-B's stock price at a low level has shown a "price flat and volume reduced" phenomenon, with the trading volume on November 3 dropping to a freezing point of 385,000 shares, indicating that the stock price may have reached a point where it "can’t fall any further." In the past three trading days, ZHAOKE OPHTH-B has actually shown signs of price stabilization. If the daily trading volume of its stock gradually increases in the future, it indicates that the bottom is accumulating upward momentum, and a bullish signal may appear subsequently, which is worth investors' attention